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How long to be profitable?

  • #21
  • Oct 6, 2009 5:28am Oct 6, 2009 5:28am
Quoting daytrading
Hi Peter,

Agreed - and in my defence, I didn't say the question was 'invalid' - only flawed.
It's a real pleasure to read a post written in a way that is well thought and intelligible.

To be sure, I sit here now, after all this time, with a profound sense of achievement. I'm comfortable in my trading skin and whenever I look at a chart I seem to know when is a good time to place a trade or stay out.

When I'm in a trade, irrespective of whether it's in profit or drawdown, I can make sound judgement calls on holding or folding. This comes from not only understanding the market's rhythm but a sound knowledge of what are reasonable targets for each trade and a sense of when to get out if that target looks too ambitious under current circumstances.

Do I have self-doubts? Often. As it took me so long to achieve even this level of skill, I'm still thinking that maybe I'm fooling myself. As I'm trading the simplest of methods (S/R) and have found a way of marking the charts which historically I've proven to be sound, I see no reason to doubt that my ability to be consistently profitably will be maintained.
  • #22
  • Oct 6, 2009 5:41am Oct 6, 2009 5:41am
Thank you for your kind words, Peter -

It is always good the hear from people whose confidence and ability is based on sound and steady foundations.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #23
  • Oct 6, 2009 6:42am Oct 6, 2009 6:42am
another interesting thread, kk007
btw, a bit related to my threads here & here

i am not yet consistently profitable, but imho,

Quoting kk007
I think this poll has probably explained why 95% private traders failed. I believe that 95% people would not expect and may not be willing to spend such amount of time to be consistently profitable.
i think this is a fair assessment. Trading takes up a lot of our time, whether for trading time, testing, reading/learning time , etc.

Quoting kk007
....
Anyone can explain what the time have been spent for?
from what i've heard/leaned, & from experience,
lack of discipline; lack of direction &/or focus (learning different systems; jumping from 1 indicator, system, & or method to another; etc); lack of planning; lack of commitment, determination, persistence, etc.; time constraints &/or personal circumstances (some traders have a job/business, need to take care of family, lack of funds, disaster/Act of God, etc)
  • #24
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:19am Oct 6, 2009 7:19am
I will answer kk007's question by repeat PeterFM:
most people spend the time jumping from one system to another. it's a part of the trading learning curve, I believe. You think something will work - no it doesn't. Try something else and so forth.

I was lucky that I could ask my partner to backtest any mechanical system that took my liking. That led me to believe that I could only succeed with a discretionary system (please not that I believe some programmers can make profitable EAs) and so I could adopt support/resistance trading early on.

The Holy Grail is you. I understand what this means now. Until you understand what kind of trader you are, you won't become successful. It takes people time to the understand the Holy Grail (themselves).

Even if one has good MM and psychology from the start, there is a learning curve. It can be speeded up, but the first few years have to be spent learning. Having looked back at all the time I've put in, it's quite a lot. And I don't think I'm consistently profitable yet, but I'm getting there.
  • #25
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:54am Oct 6, 2009 7:54am
Interesting read, especially for a newbie like myself. A few observations though (which others have touched on).

1. for those who have not become successful until say, 3 years, how were you able to take the loss of the first 3 years - which the way I see it, could be a huge amount.

2. i guess it follows that when you refer to being profitable, that means after recouping the losses made since day one? Or are you referring to just being consistently in the black. I suppose losses will be recouped if one is consistently in the black - it's just a matter of time and quantum of trade.

3. judging from the posts and the amount of time people spend on forex, it seems that one shouldn't even think about getting into FX trading if they have a full-time job. I'd be curious to know how many of those who are now "profitable" would be comfortable enough to rely on FX trading as their sole income.

4. if only it were like losing weight! At least there I know that as long as I follow a formula, I will lose weight and it is just a matter of discipline. Whereas even with discipline, surely it must be a lot more difficult to find the right "formula".

KC
  • #26
  • Oct 6, 2009 8:23am Oct 6, 2009 8:23am
KC - one quick comment about your comment that, if someone has a fulltime job, they shouldn't think about trading.

Me personally, I haven't been able to make shorter-term trading suit my style. Some scalp 2hrs per day, some trade daily or 4h timeframes. There is a way to trade, even if you work fulltime.

If you are working fulltime and wish to trade, think about this: time will go by anyway, you may as well do something with it. So what if it takes you three years? Those three years will go by anyway.

I don't think newbies should try to "trade for a living". If you focus on that goal, you will blow up or burn out much quicker. But if you go slow and steady (sorry to be boring) you will ultimately reach the point where your trading income is so high that you no longer have to work. (Hopefully!)
  • #27
  • Oct 6, 2009 9:34am Oct 6, 2009 9:34am
Quoting kwcmau
Interesting read, especially for a newbie like myself. A few observations though (which others have touched on).
Me again.....
Quote
1. for those who have not become successful until say, 3 years, how were you able to take the loss of the first 3 years - which the way I see it, could be a huge amount.
Assuming a successful period on demo, when you can get to understand a b roker's platform and some of the ways that price can move, you go live but only with a very small account. If you're thinking of going in with $10K you only start with $1K. If you blow that you start again. If this new one lasts and grows by 50% you add $500 and bring it up to $2K. If you blow that you start again..........
Quote
2. i guess it follows that when you refer to being profitable, that means after recouping the losses made since day one? Or are you referring to just being consistently in the black. I suppose losses will be recouped if one is consistently in the black - it's just a matter of time and quantum of trade.
Recouping losses and then building your account steadily. That might mean you're up 5% one month and down 3% the next and so on. If at the end of a year you have more in your account than you started with then you've crossed the first hurdle.
Quote
3. judging from the posts and the amount of time people spend on forex, it seems that one shouldn't even think about getting into FX trading if they have a full-time job. I'd be curious to know how many of those who are now "profitable" would be comfortable enough to rely on FX trading as their sole income.
Not always. There's no doubt that scalping is harder if you're not around for news releases but that's a good thing. New traders shouldn't be scalping anyway, imho, so that leaves the Daily charts. Most of my trades are based on assessment of the Dailies but living in the UK I have the opportunity to trade the London and New York sessions when the markets are most active. If I could get my lazy arse out of bed in the mornings I could also trade the early European sessions as well. So there's no reason why someone based in the States couldn't trade the daily charts; it's all about careful analysis and careful position sizing.
Quote
4. if only it were like losing weight! At least there I know that as long as I follow a formula, I will lose weight and it is just a matter of discipline. Whereas even with discipline, surely it must be a lot more difficult to find the right "formula".
KC
Everything you need to know is on the chart and the only thing that holds most newbies back is the search for the 'Holy Grail' on a 5-min chart.
  • #28
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:10am Oct 6, 2009 10:10am
Happy to say that i started trading with the "get rich quick" scheme in my mind, now I see it as get rich slow process.
  • #29
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:20am Oct 6, 2009 10:20am
Quoting PeterFM
Everything you need to know is on the chart and the only thing that holds most newbies back is the search for the 'Holy Grail' on a 5-min chart.
this quote sounds very familiar, Peter. i will continue this long journey in search of consistency...
  • #30
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:22am Oct 6, 2009 10:22am
Thanks for all who have responded and posted here, especially PeterFM, I learned a lot from his personal experience sharing.
  • #31
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:24am Oct 6, 2009 10:24am
Quoting TraderT
this quote sounds very familiar, Peter. i will continue this long journey in search of consistency...
Gotta say the search for the Holy Grail on 5 min charts is like a highly addictive drug. There should be a 5-min chartaholics anonymous program.
  • #32
  • Oct 6, 2009 10:47am Oct 6, 2009 10:47am
Quoting kwcmau
Gotta say the search for the Holy Grail on 5 min charts is like a highly addictive drug. There should be a 5-min chartaholics anonymous program.
I should think there are plenty of members in the main EURUSD thread.
  • #33
  • Oct 6, 2009 9:58pm Oct 6, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting PeterFM
I should think there are plenty of members in the main EURUSD thread.
much more in the Cable & GBPJPY threads
  • #34
  • Oct 8, 2009 11:14am Oct 8, 2009 11:14am
Who are those can be consistently profitable after less than 6 months of working? Perhaps, most of these people receiving good and close mentorship from someone successful and they know very well.
  • #35
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:17pm Oct 8, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting kk007
Who are those can be consistently profitable after less than 6 months of working? Perhaps, most of these people receiving good and close mentorship from someone successful and they know very well.
Maybe, and they have good disciplin n MM

Btw, i just vote 3 years
  • #36
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm
I have been trading for about 18 months now. I began to make profits by the 8th month and consistent eversince
  • #37
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm
Maybe they think to be consistently profitables.. cuz market still havn't slapped them (6 months is a relatively little time to know if you'r profitable or not)
  • #38
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:34pm Oct 8, 2009 10:34pm
In my opinion...definitely not less than a year, closer to two years for some and probably closer to 3 for most. Others will never be successful.
  • #39
  • Oct 9, 2009 8:41pm Oct 9, 2009 8:41pm
Overall 11 years.
Mostly trading was a hobby.At the end i learned fast and with a huge willing by spending a lot of time and nights.

The breakthrough to become consistent profitable was to analyze my strength and weakness and to understand the psychological part of the market.MM and RM also were a very important part which had to be optimized.

You trade with/against people.
By watching charts i had to understand the formations.
Now i pick out weak pattern and trade them - that is my edge.
  • #40
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:47am Oct 10, 2009 12:47am
A more interesting question would be: How long can you stay profitable once you have reach this stage? If you are starting out with around 10,000 USD it will still take you quite a few years to compound this to a sizeable sum.

Almost nobody thinks about this.
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