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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #202,341
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:52pm Oct 8, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting Scrat
and check this out:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/200...politico/28091

yeah, really, who devalued the dollar this week??? what about the last 6-7 years? or better, who did it this year?
some analysis.

p.s. oh, and i forgot: it's time to BUY dollars. BUY, not sell.
Very good article
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #202,342
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:21pm Oct 8, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting OrionsWay
been saying along,
Buy $ against what?

if there's a surprise rate hike by the Fed's then you can say hello to the housing collapse episode 2, another big boy goes down and the S&P goes into cardiac arrest.
  • #202,343
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:23pm Oct 8, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting Eulogy
Buy $ against what?

if there's a surprise rate hike by the Fed's then you can say hello to the housing collapse episode 2, another big boy goes down and the S&P goes into cardiac arrest.
that episode we are going to see anyway.. sooner or later..
  • #202,344
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:29pm Oct 8, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting Eulogy
Buy $ against what?

if there's a surprise rate hike by the Fed's then you can say hello to the housing collapse episode 2, another big boy goes down and the S&P goes into cardiac arrest.
Markets dont like suprises, but a hike in general wouldnt cause a colapse i dont think,
Pretty sure the fed funds is starting to think about pricing it in soon enough
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #202,345
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:30pm Oct 8, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting Piters
that episode we are going to see anyway.. sooner or later..
true but just like the "Cash for Crap cars" program that brings forward future demand an interest hike will bring forward future collapse.
  • #202,346
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:40pm Oct 8, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting Eulogy
true but just like the "Cash for Crap cars" program that brings forward future demand an interest hike will bring forward future collapse.
YES..

since the very beginning there was only 2 solutions to avoid the bigger scale reccesion.

1. to kill the dollar and save the markets
2. to kill the market and save the dollar

last 2Y many economists and finance guru's were over that discussion inflation/deflation.. Anyway.. one is sure..

In any of those solutions, there must be a RED LINE, to alarm the warn..
we crossed this time that line..

Still Im trying to figure what is the purpose of such a "deliberately" USD depreciation with over 12% since March, and is there maybe some other solution.. or
Are the situation is SO bad.. even disparate, that everyone realize that solution is NONE..

Finally:

Are we are in

PANIC MODE already ??

p
  • #202,347
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:50pm Oct 8, 2009 3:50pm
hgope you do not mind me picking this up

the large volume spike was on a wide spreasd down bar .. ALL BUYERS. The volume diveregence that you are picking up is an up move on the 30 min BUT the background is heavy buying with no sellers to counter the buyers.

Once the london traders go home of course volume drops off automaticaly .. you have to factor stuff like this in ....

on the 15 min we came off the top but then 1.4780 we had buyers entering the market once more.

Quoting Piters
not realy fan of EUR mate.. Im actually scalping EUR with very good spread.. 0.5p.. and moving SL right after some Pips..

My take is that both EUR and GU are going to be SOLD.. looking on 30min chart.. the last spike up on EUR is pure BS.. with a volume divergence..

EUR is on extreemes.. and this is going to be sold very HARD.. even so smells to me as a Bull trap, We have to wait to see..

Im short on.. EUR..

GBPUSD is diferent story/.. realy the 1.6130 is the last resistance line.. if taken, then we are going even Higher.. my system shows...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202,348
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:52pm Oct 8, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting rgitt05
I am selling all rallies for EU, Loading up for the big freefall



Running out of gas

why r u shoreting eu ... 4 hour chart 14 wma .. as long as price remains above this shorts will get rear end handed to them

ES just got boughtinto today even with 13 point gap it did not even come close to filling gap

until ES test 1200 usd is NOT going to get any stronger ....

all eu shorts are going to do ( swing trades) is get you a whole load of draw down
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202,349
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:54pm Oct 8, 2009 3:54pm
No trade at the moment. let see where it heading..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1h.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #202,350
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:08pm Oct 8, 2009 4:08pm
no panic, we're all COOL traders here - i for one am patiently waiting for the shorting madness.

Quoting Piters
...
Still Im trying to figure what is the purpose of such a "deliberately" USD depreciation with over 12% since March, and is there maybe some other solution.. or
Are the situation is SO bad.. even disparate, that everyone realize that solution is NONE..

Finally:

Are we are in

PANIC MODE already ??

p
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #202,351
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:11pm Oct 8, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
hgope you do not mind me picking this up

the large volume spike was on a wide spreasd down bar .. ALL BUYERS. The volume diveregence that you are picking up is an up move on the 30 min BUT the background is heavy buying with no sellers to counter the buyers.

Once the london traders go home of course volume drops off automaticaly .. you have to factor stuff like this in ....

on the 15 min we came off the top but then 1.4780 we had buyers entering the market once more.
Oh no, mate, you are very welcomed..

M.. read my post again..... Im not an EUR fan, but im scalping..
I saw the chance - I went Short.. and still collecting my pips..

This is all about .. doesn't it ??

Another thing,.. Im not a VSA trader, but im using Volume with my system, Im following my system, and im not seeing nothing wrong in it..

However, I've been WRONG many times. as RIGHT many times. maybe my mistake is that Im showing my charts ALWAYS before or just when I pull the trigger.. maybe I should shut up.. and mind my business?

well I'll consider that..

[My Charts] FYI ..please tell me where Im making mistakes..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gy.png Size: 20 KB
  • #202,352
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:17pm Oct 8, 2009 4:17pm
sorry .. will keep mouth shut ... you doing ok trading against what the pros are up to ... for me it is buy dips eu , gu and gj . More than one way to skin a cat.

just you were talking out vol div on a 30 min as if epecting a large drop...

hitting a long 1.6047 gu .. nothing like a little mark down before asia gets going



Quoting Piters
Oh no, mate, you are very welcomed..

M.. read my post again..... Im not an EUR fan, but im scalping..
I saw the chance - I went Short.. and still collecting my pips..

This is all about .. doesn't it ??

Another thing,.. Im not a VSA trader, but im using Volume with my system, Im following my system, and im not seeing nothing wrong in it..

However, I've been WRONG many times. as RIGHT many times. maybe my mistake is that Im showing my charts ALWAYS before or just when I pull the trigger.. maybe I should shut up.. and mind...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202,353
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:18pm Oct 8, 2009 4:18pm
true, i saw that. price action on larger timeframes also supports the uptrend.

so it seems like everybody and their mother are convinced that e-u is skyrocketing, and on top of that guess what - that lousy conspiracy story, "oh hey, look, russians and chinese are conspiring to sink the dollar, what are we gonna do... must sell dollars now while we can" - sneaky attack on usd this week (like this devaluation just came out of nowhere, ignoring the stellar tanking since 2002)!

well, what do you know, now even media is trying to push usd lower. so i just don't buy into that anymore. trend ALWAYS changes when everybody is convinced of the opposite. it might go up, yes, maybe a couple of hundred pips to complete the distribution... but then it's going to turn the other way.

Quoting malcolmb14
hgope you do not mind me picking this up

the large volume spike was on a wide spreasd down bar .. ALL BUYERS. The volume diveregence that you are picking up is an up move on the 30 min BUT the background is heavy buying with no sellers to counter the buyers.

Once the london traders go home of course volume drops off automaticaly .. you have to factor stuff like this in ....

on the 15 min we came off the top but then 1.4780 we had buyers entering the market once more.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #202,354
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:25pm Oct 8, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Markets dont like suprises, but a hike in general wouldnt cause a colapse i dont think,
Pretty sure the fed funds is starting to think about pricing it in soon enough
I'm a bear so make that what you will.

Right now alot of things are up in the air so too many variables to properly account for. What i will say is that there's alot of potentially damaging concerns still to follow.

HR1207 is being appealed - quite frankly if worst comes to worst i think Obama issues an executive order to quash this bill, citing what.... oh i don't know....national security perhaps. The main thing is if the Feds were ever to be audited, the US defaults on its massive debt obligations overnight.

BofA/Lewis - possibly using the most obvious and yet logically retarded argument to hide information. "We relied on their advice, but we won't tell you what they advised us. That's for our eyes only. Suck on that one taxpayers!" Whether or not Lewis ends up on the sacrificial altar will not matter because this issue now has become an exercise in the belief of the US Treasury and the Fed when Bernanke and Paulson became embroiled in it.

I've kept half an eye on Wells Fargo since March and have always been unimpressed with their loss provisioning practises. For some reason they continuously cut their provisionings and immediately place the amounts onto their baseline EBITDA. It somehow also standard practise for those big banks to recognised DTA as a hard asset on their balance sheet rather than a contingent asset in their notes that gets recognised when/if profits eventuate in the future. This mere fact shows that those big banks presuppose going concern on their company as a given. Unfortunately the reality isn't so far from this assumption as Uncle Sam keeps backstopping everything under the 13 stripes and 50 stars. Just don't know what will happen when it stops though.

Round robin upgrading - anyone else curious that the large institutions have recently been in the business of:

i upgrade you
you upgrade him
he upgrades me.
one big happy family
  • #202,355
  • Edited 4:52pm Oct 8, 2009 4:26pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
sorry .. will keep mouth shut ... you doing ok trading against what the pros are up to ... for me it is buy dips eu , gu and gj . More than one way to skin a cat.

just you were talking out vol div on a 30 min as if epecting a large drop...

hitting a long 1.6047 gu .. nothing like a little mark down before asia gets going
NOOO.. No hard feelings bro..

Im collecting my pips. and i dont care what BIG GUYS are UP TO..

Im not wasting my time to analyse BIG GUYS psychological profiles, are they are buying or selling..or where they are going to move they "dirty moneys"

I believe in opportunities.. having my system, starting as a scalp, if runs.. then that is fine.. if goes up, I exit, collect my pips.. and keep moving..

this week is very good for me.. I had very good Swings on cable.. in both directions.. and GBPJPY too - still running..

SIMPLE!!

Scalping EU and AU, as the spread is very good, sometimes Im sorry I need more hands to cover even more..

All my trades are listed HERE, on GBPUSD and my journal thread..

Not bad week.. not bad at all..

cheers !!
  • #202,356
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:26pm Oct 8, 2009 4:26pm
stopped thinking about news or fundies ... only how market reacts to them . Thinking about how bad things really are was making me miss trades on long side.

Look how we got bad news last friday but all that happened is weakness got bought into and has not looked back .

GJ double bottom seems strong , US markets up , FTSE up , today china comes back online.

I was also thinking 135 .. but reality is we are not there yet and likely will not happen while US indexes moving up , not unless something happens to weaken GU... and lets face it after today that interest rate cut move seems to be off the table for now.

gj has been ranging all day with support 142.07 (double high volume pivot area form 4 and 6 days ago) ... just buy off that . for intraday scalping ,

Quoting Scrat
true, i saw that. price action on larger timeframes also supports the uptrend.

so it seems like everybody and their mother are convinced that e-u is skyrocketing, and on top of that guess what - that lousy conspiracy story, "oh hey, look, russians and chinese are conspiring to sink the dollar, what are we gonna do... must sell dollars now while we can" - sneaky attack on usd this week (like this devaluation just came out of nowhere, ignoring the stellar tanking since 2002)!

well, what do you know, now even media is trying to push usd lower....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202,357
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:30pm Oct 8, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting Piters
NOOO.. No hard feelings bro..

Im collecting my pips. and i dont care what BIG GUYS are UP TO..

Im not wasting my time to analyse BIG GUYS psycho profiles, are they are buying or selling..or where they are going to move they "dirty moneys"

I believe in opportunities.. having my system, starting as a scalp, if runs.. then that is fine.. if goes up, I exit, collect my pips.. and keep moving..

this week is very good for me.. I had very good Swings on cable.. in both directions.. and GBPJPY too - still running..

SIMPLE!!

Scalping EU...

today was 1st trading day of week as have been busy all week

long gold $20 , long ES 8 points , long gj x 2 , 80 pip ... nice start to the week ...lol ( still have 20 hrs left )
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202,358
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:38pm Oct 8, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting Eulogy
I'm a bear so make that what you will.

Right now alot of things are up in the air so too many variables to properly account for. What i will say is that there's alot of potentially damaging concerns still to follow.

HR1207 is being appealed - quite frankly if worst comes to worst i think Obama issues an executive order to quash this bill, citing what.... oh i don't know....national security perhaps. The main thing is if the Feds were ever to be audited, the US defaults on its massive debt obligations overnight.

BofA/Lewis - possibly using...
Bro all makes sense which you asserted, But the guys who caused everything since the beginning of central banks know full well when where and how much to here and from there, War her famine there, its their game, they are above governments and set the stages for every possible thing that has happened for a very long time. I can only suggest this. USA is the biggest global machine for making them money that they have ever acquired, dont think its gonna change any time soon. Its all BS but we gotta follow the money. As for the future next whirlwind, we must attune to the thinking of these master minds and get infront of it.
It really does no good for them to take everything away from us, who will satisfy their gluttony besides us. this whole debacle was manufactured, planned for years and executed, the ? we should only be asking what else can they get up to
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #202,359
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:40pm Oct 8, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting Scrat
daily chart (dynamic candles ) doesn't look bearish at all at the moment.
what's the matter with your candles?
why are they all slanted?
are they all drunk?
  • #202,360
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:41pm Oct 8, 2009 4:41pm
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1255035008
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