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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,861
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:55am Oct 8, 2009 6:55am
HELP-I am terribly stuck in Gold-sell. Panic...dont know if to close it or hold...?????
  • #10,862
  • Oct 8, 2009 7:06am Oct 8, 2009 7:06am
hello fellow traders,

i am new to this forum. Please is there no thread for signal posting? Well, since this site gives economic news and their gravity and effect, i'd expect there be a thread on fundamental trading signals based on trader's analysis of the news.

Thanks.
  • #10,863
  • Oct 8, 2009 7:18am Oct 8, 2009 7:18am
Quoting Fana
HELP-I am terribly stuck in Gold-sell. Panic...dont know if to close it or hold...?????
Fana,

I can't help you or tell you what to do. If your selling Gold, if you haven't checked Gold is going up. Will it turn here? I don't know. How high will it go? I don't know. It you have the funds wait for a REAL sign of reversal and try to rescue, if not get out, (Better to break an arm and live to fight another day than to break your neck) but don't blindly keep adding to you position.

Sorry, the market will teach some very painful lessons.
  • #10,864
  • Oct 8, 2009 7:20am Oct 8, 2009 7:20am
Quoting auxesis
Fana,

I can't help you or tell you what to do. If your selling Gold, if you haven't checked Gold is going up. Will it turn here? I don't know. How high will it go? I don't know. I you have the funds wait for a REAL sign of reversal and try to rescue, if not get out, but don't blindly keep adding to you position.

Sorry, the market will teach some very painful lessons.
Auxesis, yes, thank you. This must be, i understand...
  • #10,865
  • Oct 8, 2009 8:25am Oct 8, 2009 8:25am
killing field out there, be extra cautious ...

btw fana , didnt gold reach a new high ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,866
  • Oct 8, 2009 8:36am Oct 8, 2009 8:36am
Maheswara,

I thought I seen someone mention that you compiled FTI "manual"
If that is correct could you possibly direct me where to find it?

Thanks
  • #10,867
  • Oct 8, 2009 8:47am Oct 8, 2009 8:47am
Quoting ALThau
Maheswara,

I thought I seen someone mention that you compiled FTI "manual"
If that is correct could you possibly direct me where to find it?

Thanks
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7346

its insnt manual , do read the thread first ...
this is just the condensed file of the thread , you will understand much better if u read the thread first ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,868
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:11am Oct 8, 2009 9:11am
Maheswara,

Thank you very much.
I'm reading the thread, but at 725 pages, it takes a while..

Kind regards,
Alex
  • #10,869
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:20am Oct 8, 2009 9:20am
careful people.
heard CB buying usd.
  • #10,870
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:22am Oct 8, 2009 9:22am
Quoting fti
careful people.
heard CB buying usd.
hi fti,

smells like that.. with Gold, GBP and Eur run..
  • #10,871
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:32am Oct 8, 2009 9:32am
Quoting fti
careful people.
heard CB buying usd.
name out of europe
  • #10,872
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:49am Oct 8, 2009 9:49am
Quoting fti
name out of europe
japan ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,873
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:15am Oct 8, 2009 10:15am
Quoting Piters
hi fti,

smells like that.. with Gold, GBP and Eur run..
How would buying dollars send GBP, EUR and Gold UP?
  • #10,874
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:25am Oct 8, 2009 10:25am
Quoting fti
name out of europe
Thanx for the heads up, fti!

Are you still trading spot fx or has your new business in the "regulated markets" started?

Wish you all the best!

Regards,
MaMood
  • #10,875
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:29am Oct 8, 2009 10:29am
Quoting ukmanthailan
How would buying dollars send GBP, EUR and Gold UP?
sorry for misunderstanding.
Buying Dollars will push all those pairs down. Even this small Run up is a part of the game..
  • #10,876
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:42am Oct 8, 2009 10:42am
Just for info in the context of fti's hint:

[...]
the euro ceded the gains it made against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said excessive currency volatility is negative for both the economy and financial stability, and that U.S. support for a strong dollar is extremely important.
[...]

and relating to another much discussed topic of the last days:

[...]
Asked about moves to price commodities such as oil in euros on Thursday, Trichet answered, "There is no strategy or campaign to foster the international use of the euro."
In London, Kuwait Finance Minister Mustapha al-Shamali said Thursday the dollar will remain the currency of oil trading because there is no problem using it. "There are some newspapers that bring these issues up, but there is nothing in it," he said.
[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of posible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #10,877
  • Oct 8, 2009 11:08am Oct 8, 2009 11:08am
Quoting indianguyinny24
HI,

I want to ask some opinion about flipping... its more mindset....

I am never able to flip... for me i can see i am on wrong side... and there is no EGo.... but i cant flip... i guess BOSS can help me with this...

yesterday i was long UJ at 88.75... at 88.45 i was seeing her dance to be going down but i couldn't flip...why i think it was already too low then the news of FIJI...so i kept in battle...though at the end the book came very positive...but the problem remains there...

is this the mindset problem...i agree i am not dancing well......

Hi V,

just some short thoughts on flipping ....

Flipping is just one method to save your book, that should be used only in very special situations. Means that it is most of the time more appropriate to close your bad positions and resync with the markets, unless you are really sure about the following:

1. the prevailing trend has changed
2. there is some strong momentum against your initial positions
3. you have enough money, to do a leveraged flip (means, you are turning your position and add the next one or two skewing levels as well)

I'm using the leveraged flip, when I have a strong position in the battlefield and I got caught by a very strong move against me. For example when a CB steps in and shifts price in opposite direction. In this case I can be sure that there is enough momentum to bring my book back into profit.

Because flipping is a very dangerous tool I tend to add 2 or 3 skew levels to my initial position size, to reduce the distance I need to get back in profit again. This gives me a better probability, that the momentum will last that long. I never let the flippid position run to make any further profit than needed to get to BE. I reduce my exposure immediately.

When trading large positions I have most of the time a very clear idea how PA hast to be and which levels PA will have to break to do a leveraged flip. When time is right, there is no time for hesitating, because you will miss a major part of the recent momentum.

Never flip in a ranging market!

If a flipped position is running against you again, squarre out.
Most probably you need some time to calm down your emotions and shape your mindset.

That is my take on flips ....

Regards,
MaMood
  • #10,878
  • Oct 8, 2009 11:11am Oct 8, 2009 11:11am
Quoting MaMood
Hi V,

just some short thoughts on flipping ....

Flipping is just one method to save your book, that should be used only in very special situations. Means that it is most of the time more appropriate to close your bad positions and resync with the markets, unless you are really sure about the following:

1. the prevailing trend has changed
2. there is some strong momentum against your initial positions
3. you have enough money, to do a leveraged flip (means, you are turning your position and add the next one or two skewing levels as well)

I'm...
This was the thing i was looking...... thanks MaMood...


V
  • #10,879
  • Oct 8, 2009 11:39am Oct 8, 2009 11:39am
Am in my last trade of the day, long the GBP/$ since about two hours ago, and am now protecting my entry price. Getting late in the trading day so not sure how much longer to hang around.

I expect a move against the dollar soon to test Lil Timmy at the US Treasury. He may need to borrow fti's steel balls for a while, or perhaps he could just turn the whole thing over to you, fti. Pretty sure he is clueless.

It has been an excellent trading day, but care is needed if you are not sure. Trade well everyone.
  • #10,880
  • Oct 8, 2009 1:53pm Oct 8, 2009 1:53pm
Chaps, is it just me or there's a potential H&S forming on the EUR chart? I don't realy fancy figures, but still...
After the hot day and before Bernanke's speach market feels almost quiet.
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