fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

We've got a new daily high.

We found a support zone between the 1.4520 - 1.4494 last week, the question is will we retest that zone or just consolidate and zoom higher ?

We'll need to break 1.4674 to confirm that push, without making a new low below 1.4481.

For today as long as 1.4597 holds, there is no questions that we're in bullish mode, but this could change with the US session... We'll see.

Favoring, small longs, trading in the direction of my bigger swing trade.

Watching US Dollar Index next move...

Testing the breakout ?

Eurusd sitting at Friday's value high, bounce time above 1.4597 ?
Pivot at 1.4568.

Watch a break of 1.4620+ for more momentum to the upside.

Swing trade going well.

Looks like 1.4800-1.4820 could be achievable before the ECB rate decision.

Today is a nice example of a market opening out of balance (outside of value), and making a vertical development move, it's not better in textbooks.

For this week we'll have to monitor last week value high at 1.4653 for reactions.

Same thing if we reach 1.4792 the monthly value high. Once breached if we get back in the monthly value we could get a violent rejection.
Let's not get surprised and be prepared for it.

US Dollar Index View

Anatomy of a reversal:

We start with a market in a downtrend.

0- New low in a downtrend.
1- Oscillator going into positive territory.
2- Breaking a valid down trendline.
3- Crossing the down trendline again and making a higher high, showing buyers strength.
4- Down Trend line kiss back test. And trendline rejection. Now buyers are in control, and they have tested sellers inability to drive the price lower.
5- Making another higher high is the last clue of trend reversal, market should continue to climb with confidence after that.

When this sequence unfolds, don't fight after point 4, because there is big chances that you are facing a reversal move, and it's never good to jump in front of a freight train

No new information for eurusd.
Trending up, and waiting for it to hit my swing trade target at 1.4792.

Will re-evaluate one we're there.

To the downside, first alert would be a breach of the weekly value high at 1.4653 and a test of the nearest VPOC and weekly POC at 1.4627.

Time to sit on my hands, doing nothing but doing it WELL

Something to keep in mind.

We haven't got a weekly close above 1.4719.

The 1.4719 swing point is a good "line in the sand" to asses if we're pushing higher with confidence or not.

We got daily closes above it, but we never traded a full day where OHLC were above it.

intraday trade setup:

Long 1.4690 - target today's high 1.4763
Stop below 1.4684

This trade is independent from the long swing trade from Friday.

S&P 500 ready for a bounce ?

Closed yesterday's day trade at target 1.4763 +73.

Adverse excursion was deeper than planned but 1.4653 hold so I kept it, to give it a chance to hit the target.

Market bounced yesterday at last week value high 1.4653, confirming that the buyers were in control, pushing the price today higher with a new high.

Waiting for my swing trade target 1.4792.

Reaction above 1.4792 should give us clues. If we consolidate above it then expect more upside development to come.
If we reject it then we have a lot of reference point to play with in the weekly value 1.4792 - 1.4520.

If we pullback my favorite support would be the first vpoc + weekly poc + almost monthly IB mid point around 1.4627.

If we go higher, then we'll need a new high above 1.4844 swing point to validate 1.4481 as the new higher low swing point.

As long as no new high is made, the reference higher low - swing point is at 1.4046.

The nearest points to take back are 1.4867 and 1.4909.

1.4909 would open the way for a new all time high 1.6037 re-test in the future.

Watching USDX and it looks like we have a valid channel to trade.

We either have:

- a downward channel (violet)
- a rectangular trading zone (blue)

KA-CHING on the swing trade at target 1.4792 for +298 pips.

Now let's see what happens...

Sellers emerging at the monthly high value...

Let's see if they have teeth.

To watch for support:

- 1.4737
- 1.4711 (that should hold)
- 1.4672 (that MUST hold or we'll post a reversal)
- 1.4698 (Last month POC)
- 1.4653 (Last week value high)

Below we'll have

Looks like rejection on 1H...

After that kind of move, tell me that markets are random

Taking an intra-day long at 1.4740 target 1.4770, the 50% retrace of that fast move.

Stop at B/E.

Stopped - flat now...

USDX hmmmm ????? watch channel high and 76.80 if broken to the upside.

Will wait for the dust to settle, before entering again.

Next entry could be long below 1.4719...