High Probability

this wasn't a fresh signal.
I didn;t realize it but Varmov repaints a little bit
first it showed white and was closed. but then when the dot came it turned the previous one back to blue, even though it was closed..
will have to watch for this...
it's important that it be a fresh signal, otherwise they may not be any momentum.
no momentum then risk is greater.

still trying to delete the 10 zillion copies of indis in the folder.
Instead of using the ctrl button to delete as a group I'm gooing to just try to delete them one by one.
may have to kill disk and start over...

okay I just deleted them and now they are all back again like nothing ever happened, the recycle bin is not full I've emptied it 2 times.

uninstalling mt4 first before more drastic measures
thanks whoever planted the bug, you're a real genius....

yup it's a bug, cannot uninstall mt4, program in use. cannot even find the program in the programs directory.

so the 1 is buggy.
running virus scan on it.
but it is bug someone has put in meta... specifically it appears.
need to contact ff police maybe they know something about this, if not they need to know....

this signal was not a fresh cross on the 5 m (not for fisher or the transform but it is not countertrend)
but it was signal nonetheless.
I was busy playing bug in the computer and got in a little late..
let's see what happens
(clicking on the chart makes it larger)

why it is important to get a fresh signal on the 5m.
this was alright but no momentum and that is what can be captured with this strategy..

am trying to trick the bug in the mt4 indi files by moving the whole folder to floppy...
can't delete is
but then there is the problem of the mt4 program not being found in the directory
doesn't work, can't get the files off the hard drive...
kill disk
been here before.. just takes time to get it all up and running again.
darn this is the lap top I take to work.

gonna try restoring to an earlier date, probably won't work.. but give it a try..

nope, system restore doesn't work..
can't access mt4 at all now..
okay kill disk...

waiting for a set up.
the green vertical line on 5m showed a god signal long, but I was playing killdisk and missed it, would look for white dots to enter short on second white dot, or a white dot and then 2 more blue dots, to enter long on the second blue dot.
practicing on the mt4 simulator while waiting.

nothing to brag about, but I got the direction of the move right.
I mean this is not a traders dream come true right now, flat on s1.

there was a lot more to that move, at least +20 pips
temptation is to jump in now,
that is the old habit, that never worked.
waiting for a fresh signal works,
now to try to see how long to stay..

varmov repaints 1 bar back.
this has caused a little problem on entries.
heiken-ashi smoothed gives roughly the same signals without repainting.
I could see several false signals that varmov gave were not there for ashi.
only thing is ashi can be a little hard to see. have tried different colors but it makes the charts hard for me to look at.
also there is no sound alert for ashi
may attach varmov to chart but chose none for colors just so I can use the sound alert without having to have the visual varmov on the chart.
that'll work, just the sound alerts from varmov, no visual, setting ashi to 3 and changing black to none will do it...
Later.............

after playing for hours with the pc to get everything loaded back in...
we're up and running.
nice thing about having to killdisk is when it comes back up, it runs like a new pc.

let us see, we see a buy signal on 5
but transform has dipped below 0
there was a big run up in ASian session from s1 to just barely tap r2,
could continue on up to r2 to test it again
or drop back to r1.
15 min shows
200 ema support on 1m

no doubt there are a lot of orders waiting at r2...(thick maroon line)
logical next consolidation area...

I'm going to walk away from the computer.
If I watch I will close before hitting the tgt.
an experiment.
if it falls back and becomes a loser, this is a demo...
but what I am seeing is a clear tgt at r2..
so let me walk away and come back after alittle while to see if I was right...
200 ema support on 1m. fisher and transdorm on 5 above 0

wow..
right on...
there's hope...
This could be the start of something big.....
+9 pips on a scalp

should be hung up at r2 for a while..
lots of passengers getting on and off the train deciding where the next station
is, back to r1 or on to r3.

from the looks of things on the 4h it's on to r3 but not right away,
EUR data at 6, but maybe sooner, us futures are sky high...
you know, buy the rumor and sell the news.
earnings season in US expecting good news, so buy before, then when the news comes out, run for the door with the gains..
so maybe scenario, get to r3 quickly then peel back later in the day.
Anyway, I trade by the technicals, not by second guessing the second guessers...

it's hang out time at r2..
prices wedged between r2 and the 200 ema on the 1m..
would consider looking for ashi to turn white on 2 candles on the 5min for a short entry.
A quick one though, a COUNTERTREND TRADE? Hmmm, maybe not.
CTA rules... Oh but just this one...
it's a sure thing...
hmm CTA... rules of rehab...
could undo months of work by a slip...
is it worth a possible 2 pips... think about it....
risk 15 for 2... think about it...
and all the discipline that would be undone, the deviation from strategy... what is the cost of that?
but but but,
no.
this is a momentum strategy, the momentum is in the direction of trend---forward..
not in backing up.....
get it right...
how many times... the same mistake, the same bad result..