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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,841
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:52am Oct 7, 2009 6:52am
Quoting MaMood
Just for info again:

1123 GMT [Dow Jones] "Someone with deep pockets," is pushing USD/JPY higher right now, traders say. Pair abruptly soared after a dip to the 88 level failed to trigger option-related stops. Official intervention is not the culprit, traders say, but large accounts are behind the move, which is having a knock-on effects in other pairs. USD/JPY trades at 88.80. EUR/USD has dipped under 1.47. (KJM)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 07, 2009 07:23 ET (11:23 GMT)

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible...
Toyota or Sony or someone like that, just got tired of losing profit on the strong Yen
  • #10,842
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:08am Oct 7, 2009 7:08am
Please stay very nimble today.
Market seems to be very nervous ....
  • #10,843
  • Edited 9:18am Oct 7, 2009 8:30am | Edited 9:18am
Happy trading day to everyone. Not sure who moved the yen today but I was able to ride two of the surges. Market seems jittery and perhaps will remain so until after the ecb and boe make their announcements tomorrow. Back to trading and hope you are all doing well.

Edit: Quick note on the yen, I tool two long positions on the E/Y surges.
  • #10,844
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:51am Oct 7, 2009 9:51am
HI,

I want to ask some opinion about flipping... its more mindset....

I am never able to flip... for me i can see i am on wrong side... and there is no EGo.... but i cant flip... i guess BOSS can help me with this...

yesterday i was long UJ at 88.75... at 88.45 i was seeing her dance to be going down but i couldn't flip...why i think it was already too low then the news of FIJI...so i kept in battle...though at the end the book came very positive...but the problem remains there...

is this the mindset problem...i agree i am not dancing well... that is clear...

any more inputs your comments when you guys flip....


V
  • #10,845
  • Edited 11:21am Oct 7, 2009 10:49am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

This is a little OT.
But if the journey is palatable, you may like some understanding, about truth and strength.
Is a beautiful journey for me, may be for you too.

Here 's a version of it.
it is 19 parts video, and a begining of a wonderful journey.


The testimony of John.(the Movie)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMVej6QXwhk

the followup is in Youtube
www.youtube.com/user/IDEMtech
regards
wow, what an inspirational journey..

THANK YOU VERY MUCH !

Good Bless you, fti !!!
  • #10,846
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:51am Oct 7, 2009 10:51am
Quoting indianguyinny24
HI,

I want to ask some opinion about flipping... its more mindset....

I am never able to flip... for me i can see i am on wrong side... and there is no EGo.... but i cant flip... i guess BOSS can help me with this...

yesterday i was long UJ at 88.75... at 88.45 i was seeing her dance to be going down but i couldn't...
Please send a chart with your entry and reasons for trade
  • #10,847
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:57am Oct 7, 2009 10:57am
Quoting auxesis
Please send a chart with your entry and reasons for trade

didnt saved the chart but will look when i go home..... but i can tell why i entered...it was more like market is way down .. FIJI news was all over the place...and at first stagnation i took the long trade....


V
  • #10,848
  • Oct 7, 2009 11:20am Oct 7, 2009 11:20am
Quoting indianguyinny24
didnt saved the chart but will look when i go home..... but i can tell why i entered...it was more like market is way down .. FIJI news was all over the place...and at first stagnation i took the long trade....


V
So price was south and you went long?

If price is trending one direction and I enter that way, and then price reverses, attempt flip is possible.

If I enter on wrong side of the market, and I know it... what should I do?
  • #10,849
  • Oct 7, 2009 11:59am Oct 7, 2009 11:59am
Quoting auxesis
So price was south and you went long?

If I enter on wrong side of the market, and I know it... what should I do?

Got the point... more work on mindset....


V
  • #10,850
  • Oct 7, 2009 12:06pm Oct 7, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Got the point... more work on mindset....


V
Not mindset, your trying to dictate to the market where it wants to go. Follow the chart, if it's making lower lows and lower highs, you should be short following this method.

When it fails to make a lower low and then takes out the prior lower high, then you have to ask questions, until then your short.
  • #10,851
  • Edited 12:33pm Oct 7, 2009 12:06pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Got the point... more work on mindset....


V
Hi, are you sure it's mindset, or is it trend recognition that you need to work on first? Probably both. Remember that the news of BOJ intervention is only speculation until it happens, otherwise trade the trend and do not assume anything. Trade your chart.

Edit: just read auxesis's reply and I think I kind of repeated his thought...sorry
  • #10,852
  • Oct 7, 2009 12:41pm Oct 7, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting auxesis
Not mindset, your trying to dictate to the market where it wants to go. Follow the chart, if it's making lower lows and lower highs, you should be short following this method.

When it fails to make a lower low and then takes out the prior lower high, then you have to ask questions, until then your short.

Thanks Man... you are right dictating in hindsight i dont see it as you explain its clear...

Most imp thing is to ask that question...

V
  • #10,853
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:50pm Oct 7, 2009 1:50pm
hey V ,
ur judgement to flip is based only on one question
can u recover the lost ground by flipping ?
when this is answered yes , then work to take ur positions out step by step and start working to skew into the other direction ...

whenever I find myself in the wrong direction ,
I ask myself that only question , can i recover by changing direction ?
or do i have the resources to get me out with a profit ...

hope that helps ...
good trading to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,854
  • Oct 7, 2009 2:29pm Oct 7, 2009 2:29pm
Hi Friends,

just two interesting readings that I have found in an other thread ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=178

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=177

Reagards,
MaMood
  • #10,855
  • Oct 7, 2009 3:06pm Oct 7, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting maheswara
hey V ,
ur judgement to flip is based only on one question
can u recover the lost ground by flipping ?
when this is answered yes , then work to take ur positions out step by step and start working to skew into the other direction ...

whenever I find myself in the wrong direction ,
I ask myself that only question , can i recover by changing direction ?
or do i have the resources to get me out with a profit ...

hope that helps ...
good trading to all

Thanks Mahesh this does help....
  • #10,856
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:31pm Oct 7, 2009 5:31pm
I belive right now is one big poker game on forex between big banks as there are so many different views on recovery and mixed news are coming out. This is cancer market so be prepered for a higher volatility. regards
P.S Also about this china holding US Debt. BIGGEST US DEBT HOLDER IS FED!!!
  • #10,857
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:48am Oct 8, 2009 2:48am
Dear friends, i am in huge loss of 30% of my capitall. I understand, hat i am te beggineragain.I have made such mistakes... And now i know why. Because i am nasty, stupid unexperienced pig! (sory for such words).
Now i have to reorganize myself and go ahead! One day I am going to win, because the truth and the love will win, and i am on their side.
  • #10,858
  • Oct 8, 2009 4:29am Oct 8, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Fana
Dear friends, i am in huge loss of 30% of my capitall. I understand, hat i am te beggineragain.I have made such mistakes... And now i know why. Because i am nasty, stupid unexperienced pig! (sory for such words).
Now i have to reorganize myself and go ahead! One day I am going to win, because the truth and the love will win, and i am on their side.
Amin!
Best of luck with your mission and may the market be with you

P.S. Don't be too harsh on yourself, no one was born experienced
  • #10,859
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:37am Oct 8, 2009 6:37am
Happy trading day to everyone. OK, we have the boe out of the way and now waiting on the ecb. I have been trading pullbacks on the gbp and euro today. Not sure I want to be playing with the yen but will keep an eye on it. Good trading.
  • #10,860
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:53am Oct 8, 2009 6:53am
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day to everyone. OK, we have the boe out of the way and now waiting on the ecb. I have been trading pullbacks on the gbp and euro today. Not sure I want to be playing with the yen but will keep an eye on it. Good trading.
There's one more round of big figs yet to go, Unemployment Claims here in about 30 mins along with the ECB's statement. Buckle up and get ready to ride
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