High Probability

adding the line plot to the template.
to further help identify pullbacks.

the template still isn't quite right..
back to basics
I am most confident using the pivots, s/r and the 200 ema...
max is not helping
and ashi can be misleading...
will work with the varmov for a while...
It makes sense to me to think of price action like a train going from station to station to pick up (buyers) and unload (sellers) passengers.
Support and resistance (pivots, the 200 ema, s/r and especially their intersections-major locations) are the stations (places where the most loading and unloading goes on). The train can stall at the station a while (consolidation) until all the passengers have adjusted their positions. Then off to the next station.
Scalping tries to capture part of the ride from one station to the next on the 1 minute.
Countertrend is like trying to capture the train ride as it backs up briefly to maybe pick up or drop off a passenger or two that missed the train when it was still at the station.
I see at some point a charting package that shows price action that looks like a little train and instead of candlesticks, bars etc, rr tracks. RR crossing signs, passengers, bridges, rivers the whole thing, train wrecks..
Gamers paradise... forex traded on the internet catapulted to another dimension...
An entrepreneur's million dollar project.

For now let me get my 25 pips per day...
Actually I would be sitting very pretty at 10 pips.. That's $100/day. What wouldn't that do to make a difference? How hard should that be? If I keep that account separate and sober. Don't trade in it if my psychology is not right. I am angry or the cat with the ball of yarn wants to make a fuss...
What I may need to do is have one serious account. The 10 pip per day account. A standard account with 20:1.
And dabble and experiment like I am prone to do in a micro account 400:1, the demos, the simulator. But leave that live account completely alone. It is just for that 1 or 2 trades a day that will bring in the 10 pips....
What I will do for now is practice like that. I will have one demo account that is the serious account.
For the next week I will treat it like that. Only serious trades are there. An easy goal, 10 pips per day and that's it for that account. For experimenting and practicing I will have another demo account. Let me practice like that, 2 accounts, see if my psychology will hold up and I can keep them separate.

2 shorts
1st tgt 200 ema
end tgt s1
15m..

this makes the most sense to me, pivots, 200 ema, and the probability indis..

looks very good on the 30 min to support the 15 min trade..
sq1 and the 200 ema intersect.. on the 30 min
major train station......grand central?
right now passengers a little scattered around the country side, all aboard..
let's see what happens...
I'm thinking that just like a passenger has a destination in mind when they board a train, so the buyers and sellers have a destination in mind.
just like I do.
the 200 ema is a favorite,
so are the pivots and s&r..
just like I am looking at.
So it makes sense. We will all be heading to the same station... Some to get aboard with a new destination in mind, and others to get off having reached their destination, the train moves on...
next stop 200 ema.... all aboard...

looking at the 5m looks like there were a few straglers who got left behind at the last station, pivot point (thick yellow line).
train is backing up to get them.
If not and we head up through the pivot point, I've got my emergency escape, not where I wanted to go, bought the wrong ticket, thought the train was going somewhere else...
let me out.....
but so far things look okay...
destination on track..

transform says look for downside 30 m..

is it r1 or s1 next station?
transform on 1hr would need to cross below zero to get there...
(the switch on the tracks?)

is this just a tour of the suburbs, picking up stragglers?
or am I on the wrong train?
1m looks like could just be a test of the pivot.
(obviously not ready yet for using real money...)

was that it?
did we get everyone, can we go to s1 now?

The equities markets are getting bazooky..
Everyone knows they've gone too far to be able to keep going without a pullback..
And they are in there buying their heads off..
Headlines, buying on HOPES of recovery...
dead giveaway. Buying on increased earnings, buying on better margins, etc etc. is solid, but buying on hopes....?
get ready for a big slide, when they pull the money out, it'll be like pulling the stopper out of a bathtub.
EURUSD will go down with it...
Bet you big money managers are shorting EURUSD like anything right now.

no data of any significance today.
5 am final gdp EUR
6 am German factory orders, EUR
10:30 oil USD
nothing too too motivational...
maybe a drifting day, going nowhere...

probably a good thing it is taking forever for the money to get into my live account.
made the mistake of depositing online on Sunday. Thinking it would be quicker that way, ready sometime early on Monday..wrong...
Deposits made during office hours take about 2 hours, but deposits on Sunday can up to 3 days or more. Evidently they process deposits differently on Sunday and it gets routed and rerouted every which way before it gets into the account (sounds a little like trading forex).
speaking of forex,
this is not looking good.....

cross of zero for the transform supported by Fisher is usually pretty significant.
So where's this train going?
I'm still aboard for s1 but it sure ain't an express....

pivot point
just hanging out..
when the train leaves the station it's gonna move...
s1 s1 s1 ..

come on down...
clear the platform
all aboard
s1 s1 s1
1st tgt is midway point between pivot and s1 which also coincides with 200 ema on 15.

just remembered an old technique I used to use.
On a higher time framed like the 30 look for the start of a trend.
draw a vertical line through it.
switch to lower time frame, say 1 min.
the vertical line will show up there
the 1m can then be traded with some confidence that it is not counter trend...
okay!!!
for my template I would use Varmov wait for signal dot to close and draw a line through the second dot.
varmov does not repaint but can change direction on only 1 dot.

looks like a train wreck coming..
want to try the strategy I just remembered.
could make all the difference in the world.
Identifying the trend is the most important thing.

must be waiting for data in 15 mins..
EUR gdp..
Shoulda known...
so if good report then train goes to higher priced part of town, r1,
if not so good, we slum it at s1...
later this morning when I can put time into this, I'm eager to test out the trend strategy I remembered...
I think that has been what has been missing in the 1m trades.
Meanwhile back at the train station (maybe I'll drive next time. )

might have to add bars....
just not enough information about hi and low
fight the clutter...