High Probability

High Probability

After spending some time on the Trading Systems Forum developing a strategy, I feel I have reached a point where there is no need to make any major changes to the technicals and would like to keep a journal based on the strategy. It is a high probability trading system using the 1 minute chart, the fisher indicator, fisher transform, heiken-ashi smoothed, pivot points and the 200 ema.

The system is a little unique in that I do not use candles, bars or lines to follow price action. Prices are monitored using the ticker tape and the horizontal lines on the chart that show only the present prices for bid and ask. By simply knowing the trend and the present prices, successful trading decisions can be made without all the minute details of the history of the ups and downs of where prices have been in the past... This is especially effective trading the 1 minute chart since there is so much extreme movement that I find trying to watch candles or bars or even lines is a distraction.

I will be working on learning to avoid the temptation to trade the counter trends and taking steps towards successful trading by practicing good money management. I will be posting and analyzing trades, keeping track of balances and position sizes and learning to trade by the
percentages.

Discussion and input from traders is welcome.

The thread on the Trading Systems Forum is entitled Fisher and I will no longer be posting there.

Quitting was never an option. Some measure of success is there.

I am especially appreciative of all the help I have received from traders in these Forums. There are some real mentors on these boards, and when they find you, the path opens up.

Now let me see how far I can go.

Best wishes
jiva34

In an effort to curb my addiction to counter trend trading I am forming CTA

Countertrend Traders Anonymous.

Before any trade members of CTA should recite the 6 steps:

1. I admit that I cannot control my addiction to countertrend trading
2. I recognize a greater power that can give me strength;
3. I will examine past errors with the help of a sponsor (experienced member);
4. I will make amends for these errors;
5. I will trade by strictly following my trading strategy;
6. I will help others that suffer from addiction to countertrend trading...

I will read and recite these 6 steps before every trade.

Anyone wishing to join CTA and remain anonymous can contact me directly through ff email... Strict confidentiality is there at all times.

The trend is out friend.
best wishes
jiva34.

new $5000 demo.
1st trade was break even.

tempting,
but no,
I am in rehab, not even 1..
prices are below 200 ema
trend is down short term

NOTE: the template has been changed. 2 max's is not as efficient or easy to look at as using 1 max and heiken ashi smoothed. Also discovery of how to find continuation entry points on the transform has been made. Starting with post 15, indis and the new template are there for anyone wanting to try this system. Pivots have been replaced by trendline channels.

if prices pullback to 200 and transform is above 0 would consider long entry

I think what makes the difference for a cross being countertrend or not may be seen if there is a cross of 0 line by transform and fisher.
just a cross of the 2 maxes is not enough to be able to say...

0 lines transform and fisher were crossed to coincide with the 2 maxes..
200 ema not even considered...

+4 pips...

a cross of the 2 max's
fisher cross of 0
and transform cross of zero...
all in the same direction......
entry point
In the direction of the trend (CTA rules)
will worry about exits later
let me get entries right for now
and I should be able to get at least 4 or 5 pips just for getting in going in the right direction...

max crossed
and transform crossed
but fisher did not,
tempted, but no trade
CTA rules...

setting up for a short?

long on what looked like a bounce of transform off 0
but trade stalled, retraced,
so got out as first opportunity for +1 pip
trade still stalled
+5 pips for the day, the hard way...

2 bad trades. gray and green highlights
consolidation,,
caught the break out and it is in progress.red highlight
exit tgt r3 1.4775 could take all day. +33 pips (with the 2 bad trades total for day is -17 pips as of present)
20 pip stop just below 200 ema and just above r2...



changed setting on transform 10 was too low too many false signals for 1m, new setting 55....
opened 2nd position long, transform at 55 is very different from transform at 10.

before changing transform settings another bad trade.
account at -28 pips

with these 2 long goal is +66 pips to put total for day at +38, the hard way..

too hard to look at
minor template change,
trend channels instead of pivots
ashi candles smoothed instead of 2 max's

fisher is still king.
cross of 0 is the best
confirmed by transform and max cross of ashi...

still the best.
prices tend to follow inside the channels and move around the midline...

on transform...
fisher defines the main trend
transform signals continuation entry points.
no counter trend


attached are part one of the indi for the system
see next post for the rest...

to get the ashi candles to appear like they do on my template,
open properties and click none for color selection for candles, line, bars....

Am attaching a simulator called training, place it in the experts folder.
I use it to practice like live trading.
To buy or sell click on the word buy or sell and move the word up on the chart to close the position move the word down. Valuable tool...

How did you trading go today?

Thank you for asking.
disoriented..
I will be honest...
tomorrow is another day. funds have still not posted to the account.
Usually it takes 2 hours. I deposited on Sunday, I think that was the problem. They must have a different way of processing deposits that are made when the office is closed. Rerouted all over the world somehow...
Will never deposit on a Sunday again. Actually I never want to deposit again, period....Sunday or otherwise, if you know what I mean..
I'm not going to post the pip total since it is very disappointing...
Tomorrow is another day.
The transform was on the wrong setting which didn't help matters much and I tried a little different setup.
Fisher is king. No getting around it. Fisher cross of 0 is the thing...
Please be careful with 1 min. Use the simulator.. Please please don't use real money...
Have you had a chance to make any money today trading?
jiva34

Like you said, tomorrow is another day. Dust yourself off and get ready to trade tonight.

I did not place any trades as I was busy working on business but I will be placing trades tonight. Going to study the 1min charts but no trading on them though.

Hello Jiva34,
Nice thread and very interesting trading system, keep on doing the good work