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Watch the rise (or fall) of a trader gone naked

  • #21
  • Oct 5, 2009 4:57pm Oct 5, 2009 4:57pm
Hi Beam
have a look at the way Dan trades......
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post3117888



Work backwards if you go thru the THREAD...

all the best

baz
  • #22
  • Oct 6, 2009 12:02am Oct 6, 2009 12:02am
Quoting baz
Hi Beam
have a look at the way Dan trades......
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post3117888



Work backwards if you go thru the THREAD...

all the best

baz
Thanks, baz, I'll look into it.

beam
  • #23
  • Oct 6, 2009 12:08am Oct 6, 2009 12:08am
Good morning (GMT+1),

The market (meaning EURUSD from now on) is at currently at 1.4717. I'll wait for a retrace to near 1.4675.

beam
  • #24
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:19am Oct 6, 2009 2:19am
Quoting beam
Good morning (GMT+1),

The market (meaning EURUSD from now on) is at currently at 1.4717. I'll wait for a retrace to near 1.4675.

beam
The market's been up to 1.475 and is now showing signs of weakness. I think (hope) that the London session will take it back down to my entry target area around 1.4675.

beam
  • #25
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:31am Oct 6, 2009 2:31am
Quoting beam

  1. I'm not sure I fully understand your question. What do you mean with "series"? I want to see, when in a down trend, at least one higher high and a higher low before I can anticipate that the trend has reversed. And also, I wouldn't continue trading a down trend, if there is a higher high or a higher low (or if I can see the market's slowing down).

beam

I understand the HH/HL business but I was asking whether this is a series based on the Daily chart or another.

I base my trends in this order Monthly - Weekly - Daily. By the time I'm on the Daily chart my absolute get out point for short-term trend change is the last significant HL in the Daily uptrend. Until that point is breached I'm Long. Obviously, reverse the sequence for a downtrend.

For example, I've just finished a series of trades on AUDUSD and closed all trades on a TP I set overnight at .8842. If you look at that chart my trades stayed in until the last significant low at 0.8600(ish) had a Daily close below it. As that point was never breached I stayed in. So I had some waiting and a little drawdown but all the trades I was holding were still only risking 3% in total even if the RBA had cut rates last night instead of raising them.
  • #26
  • Oct 6, 2009 6:59am Oct 6, 2009 6:59am
Quoting beam
The market's been up to 1.475 and is now showing signs of weakness. I think (hope) that the London session will take it back down to my entry target area around 1.4675.

beam
London session still hasn't produced the retrace I'm waiting for. I have to put my hopes to the New York sesion.

I hope moderators won't ban me for spamming if I keep up this posting speed in the future...
  • #27
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:17pm Oct 6, 2009 3:17pm
Not much movement today. The market approached the supporting trend line horizontally. Therefore, I took a long position at 1.4716 a minute ago almost exactly at the trend line after the market had showed signs of turning north again. 50 pips fixed stop loss.

beam

Attached Image
  • #28
  • Oct 6, 2009 11:48pm Oct 6, 2009 11:48pm
After a took the long position at 1.4716 last night, there's been a lower high and a lower low . The market's also broken my supporting trend line.

beam

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-1h-20091007-0643.png Size: 34 KB
  • #29
  • Oct 7, 2009 4:19pm Oct 7, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting beam
After a took the long position at 1.4716 last night, there's been a lower high and a lower low . The market's also broken my supporting trend line.

beam

Attachment
Yeah, it was going down. I got stopped out. Lost 50 pips.

A minute ago I placed an order to sell at 1.471 with a fixed SL at 1.476. You can see my orders in the attached chart, as well as the previous trade.

Peter? An ambush please

beam

Attached Image
  • #30
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:20pm Oct 7, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting beam
Yeah, it was going down. I got stopped out. Lost 50 pips.
A minute ago I placed an order to sell at 1.471 with a fixed SL at 1.476. You can see my orders in the attached chart, as well as the previous trade.
Peter? An ambush please
beam
I never criticise anyone else's trades but I will explain why I take my trades.

In the image you will see 3 red arrows showing a Resistance level that's based on several months (well, 12 months to be precise) testing of a certain method of calculating S/R areas. The green arrow is the retest of Resistance which now appears to be Support at 1.4670.

Once this Resistance had been broken a few days ago I simply wait for the pullback and then as I see that level holding I will place a limit order to pick up any further retrace back to that line. As far as I'm concerned this pair is trying to go higher and once it stops all this messing about I expect a retest first of 1.4761 (marked on the chart) and then back up to 1.4835, also marked on the chart. This entry is actually based on a buy stop 10 pips above a 1-hr pinbar that tested and failed to close below that level.

That's my thinking and might not be yours. As you can see I'm looking at a bigger picture than you (although I'm judging that purely by the charts you are posting) so I tend to have a different directional bias most of the time to many around here. So I'm only looking for good Long opportunities and am quite happy to miss out on the sell signals.

A close (Daily) below 1.4525 might get me thinking about shorting down to the 1.4200 area but then I'd be going long again at the first sign of a climb back up.

----------
Attached Image
  • #31
  • Oct 8, 2009 12:00am Oct 8, 2009 12:00am
Quoting PeterFM
That's my thinking and might not be yours. As you can see I'm looking at a bigger picture than you (although I'm judging that purely by the charts you are posting) so I tend to have a different directional bias most of the time to many around here. So I'm only looking for good Long opportunities and am quite happy to miss out on the sell signals.
Thanks Peter! The rest of you, listen to him!

I'm both frustrated ('cause I lost 50 pips again) and a bit amused (which I can afford to be 'cause I don't trade large positions) of the fact that my two last trades are schoolbook examples of newbie "signals" as in "go ahead and read beams thread over in the journals section, buy when he sells, and sell when he buys, you will make many dollars". Please see the attached chart. Actually that thought has occurred to me more than once. That maybe I should analyze the market situation, decide to buy or sell, only to then do the opposite thing.

Peter (and the rest of you), I will now take cover for a while under paragraph 9 of my strategy: "After a losing trade, figure out what went wrong before jumping in again.".

Hope someone out there can learn from my mistakes now when I'm putting my ass on the line in front of the entire community here at FF, and all

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-1h-20091008-0637.png Size: 29 KB
  • #32
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:39pm Oct 8, 2009 2:39pm
The market's near the 1.480-1.485 which has been a resistance area since September 22nd 2008. Now I'll just have to figure out what to do with that information. Sell against the trend, counting on the trend to reverse? Oh, no! It's against my strategy! Go long with the trend, counting on the market to break the resistance? No way! Sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to show me what's going on? Yeah!

But then what? Well, on the daily chart, I am under the impression that it's easy:
- If the market breaks down below the previous low at 1.448, it's a reversal.
- If the market breaks out above 1.485 to, hmm, say 1.5, only to retest the new-born support 1.485 and then head north again, I can see an opportunity to go long.

Ok, I'll sit on my hands to see what this leads to. But I don't like it!

beam
  • #33
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:09pm Oct 8, 2009 3:09pm
I was going to say that it might be worth going short below the previous significant low at 1.465... It is, after all, an S/R level since October 2nd. But I don't know. Maybe. Anyway, it probably won't go there before the weekend. So I've got time to think about it.

beam
  • #34
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:11pm Oct 8, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting beam
I was going to say that it might be worth going short below the previous significant low at 1.465... It is, after all, an S/R level since October 2nd. But I don't know. Maybe. Anyway, it probably won't go there before the weekend. So I've got time to think about it.

beam
A decisive trader who makes firm decisions .
  • #35
  • Oct 9, 2009 12:15am Oct 9, 2009 12:15am
Quoting PeterFM
A decisive trader who makes firm decisions .
Yeah, it was an example of a previously unknown method called "CYA Trading"
  • #36
  • Oct 9, 2009 2:41pm Oct 9, 2009 2:41pm
I've decided what to do with the 1.465 level on the 1H chart. Finally, Peter

Have a look at the attached chart. If it bounces back up and manage to go clear for an hour (a similar situation is marked with the first arrow on the chart), I'm going to enter long. If it breaks down below 1.463, only to get back up for a confirmation, I'll place a sell order at 1.463, as outlined with example 2 on the chart.

Have a nice weekend!
beam

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-1h-20091009-2132.png Size: 27 KB
  • #37
  • Oct 9, 2009 3:02pm Oct 9, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting beam
I've decided what to do with the 1.465 level on the 1H chart. Finally, Peter

Have a look at the attached chart. If it bounces back up and manage to go clear for an hour (a similar situation is marked with the first arrow on the chart), I'm going to enter long. If it breaks down below 1.463, only to get back up for a confirmation, I'll place a sell order at 1.463, as outlined with example 2 on the chart.

Have a nice weekend!
beam
I'll be away in France from the 14th to the 21st so you can have a rest as well. I would like to wish you good luck with your trade but I don't deal in luck so I will check this out when I get back.

If that short occurs, assuming my current TP at 1.4850 isn't hit before then, and you make at least 150 pips then I'll come back to a 5% hole in my account, but don't let that worry you .
  • #38
  • Oct 9, 2009 3:47pm Oct 9, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting PeterFM
I'll be away in France from the 14th to the 21st so you can have a rest as well. I would like to wish you good luck with your trade but I don't deal in luck so I will check this out when I get back.

If that short occurs, assuming my current TP at 1.4850 isn't hit before then, and you make at least 150 pips then I'll come back to a 5% hole in my account, but don't let that worry you .

You just can't stop challenging me, can you?

No matter how odd it might seem, I appreciate it. Have a nice trip to France. See you later.

Beam
  • #39
  • Oct 11, 2009 3:26pm Oct 11, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting beam
I've decided what to do with the 1.465 level on the 1H chart. Finally, Peter

Have a look at the attached chart. If it bounces back up and manage to go clear for an hour (a similar situation is marked with the first arrow on the chart), I'm going to enter long. If it breaks down below 1.463, only to get back up for a confirmation, I'll place a sell order at 1.463, as outlined with example 2 on the chart.

Have a nice weekend!
beam

Attachment
This is my (more detailed) plan for dealing with the 1.465 support.

There are two options, long or short

A long trade will be taken at 1.467 if the market bounces off 1.465. TP 1.48. SL at 1.462.

A short trade will be taken at 1.463. TP to be decided. SL at 1.468.

beam
  • #40
  • Oct 11, 2009 3:44pm Oct 11, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
as always very sound advise..i always learn from u pete. i guess the moral is: when the trade is a loss, think about what went wrong and what u could have done to prevent this losing trade, only then can a trader develop and this is the journey one must undergo to become " the trader"

good trading to u buddy beam
This is good advice. Are you keeping a journal of all your trades?
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