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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #201,481
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:13pm Oct 4, 2009 3:13pm
yeh i think i need to ditch all my shorts (all negative and the best short being at 141.89). dont like the look of shorts at the moment, think it needs up more before any more drops. but then if euro goes flying after ireland signed treaty, eurgbp might take the pound down quite a lot, even if yen finds a bit of weakness pound might be weaker.

it would be nice to ditch them at 142 and cut my losses instead of 143 or higher though. but then it might drop more
  • #201,482
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:14pm Oct 4, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting ewokuk
yeh i have that marketprofile_pob thing, it draws a line for each session asia, europe and NY rather than one line covering all sessions for the day, so end up with loads of lines when really its only the london/ny overlap line that counts as thats always highest volume....
here you go some examples of trades for friday on 5 min charts

vsa is not all about the high volume pin bars , things like no demands in retraces of down trends and low volume test in retraces of up moves are the easiest of all trades to take .

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #201,483
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:20pm Oct 4, 2009 3:20pm
yeh easy when its marked on a chart already, not so easy identifying these live have saved a lot of your charts along the way as examples to look at but so far only got as far as identifying the pin bars (and even had some of those fail on me). spent the last week looking at 1h and 4h charts instead, looks like that might have gone wrong now as well if it doesnt come back down. it DID look like a good short with a nice rounded top before nfp and BoJ intervention rumours screwed with it.

gj just took a mini dive, right now its looking like its going to gap down a bit, 142.50 and falling as i type. perhaps i may hold my shorts for a while yet. usdjpy has really taken a dive, down at 89.29 from 89.80, over 50 pips ad still falling. thats a *VERY* big move for uj before anything is even open. i wonder if all those that went long on that high volume after nfp have quickly decided to ditch those longs!

get the impression there may be fireworks to come when things open after these moves, yen looks mighty strong at the minute. news of more US bank failures over weekend, plus BoJ rumour turning out to be false, plus NFP being so bad, still possible this will tank hard i guess.
  • #201,484
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:21pm Oct 4, 2009 3:21pm
When will the large volume return? check out last year in October, and forward.. the geppy had 300 pip moves in a 1hr candlestick!
lowest draw down possible please.
  • #201,485
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:26pm Oct 4, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting ewokuk
yeh easy when its marked on a chart already, not so easy identifying these live have saved a lot of your charts along the way as examples to look at but so far only got as far as identifying the pin bars (and even had some of those fail on me). spent the last week looking at 1h and 4h charts instead, looks like that might have gone wrong now as well if it doesnt come back down. it DID look like a good short with a nice rounded top before nfp and BoJ intervention rumours screwed with it.

gj just took a mini dive, right now its looking like its...
Looks like this week it's gonna be USD weakness, not because of Yen strength. Last week-end G7 meeting short of calling USD to appreciate.
  • #201,486
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:27pm Oct 4, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting ewokuk
yeh easy when its marked on a chart already, not so easy identifying these live ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...-10-2009-10-04

greenspan said unemployment 10 % or higher will help your short

142 key below that test 140.80
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #201,487
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:29pm Oct 4, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...-10-2009-10-04

greenspan said unemployment 10 % or higher will help your short

142 key below that test 140.80
yeah i think theres a few major factors that might help the shorts continue, im going to hold for now and pray it comes off, looking at the pre market movement, i get the impression we might get some serious tanking when things open.
  • #201,488
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:29pm Oct 4, 2009 3:29pm
Take it easy bro...You might closed them with 20/30 pips of profit....she is dropping erally bad right now...what is your Average Position?


Quoting ewokuk
yeh i think i need to ditch all my shorts (all negative and the best short being at 141.89). dont like the look of shorts at the moment, think it needs up more before any more drops. but then if euro goes flying after ireland signed treaty, eurgbp might take the pound down quite a lot, even if yen finds a bit of weakness pound might be weaker.

it would be nice to ditch them at 142 and cut my losses instead of 143 or higher though. but then it might drop more
  • #201,489
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:30pm Oct 4, 2009 3:30pm
Some amazing analysis as always...

Quoting Scrat
let's continue with daily and h4.

- daily shows a possible reversal pattern, and when i know that we hit a monthly support i will be very careful with shorts from here. daily PVP is at upper 154 area, which means that all major action took place in that area. i would think that sooner or later, that level will be tested again; also, keep in mind that weekly PVP (156.22) for the current down swing is just at ~150 pips from daily PVP, another reason for price to come back for more fun at those levels.

- and finally, h4 shows resistance at 143.70...
Dr. C
  • #201,490
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:30pm Oct 4, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting ewokuk
yeah i think theres a few major factors that might help the shorts continue, im going to hold for now and pray it comes off.

If we get 30 min close under 142 you all good
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #201,491
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:32pm Oct 4, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting Fusion
Take it easy bro...You might closed them with 20/30 pips of profit....she is dropping erally bad right now...what is your Average Position?
i think the average is somewhere just above 141 so id need a 142 break then ill probably be ok for at least break even (but if it breaks 142 and gets back to break even, then i guess its going my way so no point closing then right?)

if i could just string together 10-20 trades of 50 or so pips with 80-90% success would make a huge difference to my account. the problem is i win a couple then lose a load, cant string the good ones together which makes all the difference.
  • #201,492
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:33pm Oct 4, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...-10-2009-10-04

greenspan said unemployment 10 % or higher will help your short

142 key below that test 140.80
We may not get a whole lot of events on GY since GU and EU are likely to appreciate. May as well trade long EU and GU instead and short UY
Also, Ireland passed a referendum to endorse EU last week-end.
  • #201,493
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:36pm Oct 4, 2009 3:36pm
142.35
  • #201,494
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:40pm Oct 4, 2009 3:40pm
You know what should you do ... and DO IT, because I have learned this the HARD way...

1. Choose your entry points with as much care as possible....

2. Once your position is in the money, put a counter-trade 5/10 pips below/above your position to protect it....(If you are short, put it below, if Long, above)

3. If PA hit your these protective stops, fuck it....let go...AT LEAST YOU HAVE 5/10 PIPS....

As of the current situation, I think we will have a good dip in your favour....things don't look that rosy right now....we might end up te low of last week tonight...just read what Malc. had posted....who is gonna go long in this situation?






Quoting ewokuk
i think the average is somewhere just above 141 so id need a 142 break then ill probably be ok for at least break even (but if it breaks 142 and gets back to break even, then i guess its going my way so no point closing then right?)

if i could just string together 10-20 trades of 50 or so pips with 80-90% success would make a huge difference to my account. the problem is i win a couple then lose a load, cant string the good ones together which makes all the difference.
  • #201,495
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:43pm Oct 4, 2009 3:43pm
Quoting Fusion
You know what should you do ... and DO IT, because I have learned this the HARD way...

1. Choose your entry points with as much care as possible....

2. Once your position is in the money, put a counter-trade 5/10 pips below/above your position to protect it....(If you are short, put it below, if Long, above)

3. If PA hit your these protective stops, fuck it....let go...AT LEAST YOU HAVE 5/10 PIPS....

As of the current situation, I think we will have a good dip in your favour....things don't look that rosy right now....we might end up te low...
when scalping/daytrading i DO have my stop there, i move it to +1 as soon as i can (usually if i get say 10 pips in profit!) and most of the time get taken out for....+1. then whenever i dont move it up to +1 quickly, it goes flying against me and i lose 30 instead. i tend to move my stop up TOO fast and get taken out on the slightest bounce.
  • #201,496
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:48pm Oct 4, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting ewokuk
when scalping/daytrading i DO have my stop there, i move it to +1 as soon as i can (usually if i get say 10 pips in profit!) and most of the time get taken out for....+1. then whenever i dont move it up to +1 quickly, it goes flying against me and i lose 30 instead. i tend to move my stop up TOO fast and get taken out on the slightest bounce.
man .. if playing GY and thinking your 20-30 pips stoploss is enough, then mostly likely your sl would be taken out in no time. Unless someone has the ability like Malcolmb to analyze with VSA
  • #201,497
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:52pm Oct 4, 2009 3:52pm
+1 and 30 fucks your nerves....reduce your risk and focus on the trend more and use LINEAR PROGRESSION....example:

Suppose that you want to go short 100,000 GJ from 145, your target is 141...profit 400 pips...ok...but you can never sure that IT IS GONNA HAPPEN...unless you are Malc.

Do this instead: break that 1 Lot into 5*20K...and add ALONG WITH PA

I. go short 20k at 145 =====> Profit 0.2 *400 pips = 80
II. go short 20k at 144.7 =====> Profit 0.2 *370 pips = 74
III. go short 20k at 144. .4 =====> Profit 0.2 *340 pips = 68
IV. go short 20k at 144.1 =====> Profit 0.2 *310 pips = 62
V. go short 20k at 143.8 =====> Profit 0.2 *280 pips = 56

Total Pips = 340

you see, you have 340 pips of profit, v.s. 400, BUT it is SURE PROFIT....not nerve racking...plus the fact that you can adjust your entries and add on more on retractions....let me know if you need more explanations....




Quoting ewokuk
when scalping/daytrading i DO have my stop there, i move it to +1 as soon as i can (usually if i get say 10 pips in profit!) and most of the time get taken out for....+1. then whenever i dont move it up to +1 quickly, it goes flying against me and i lose 30 instead. i tend to move my stop up TOO fast and get taken out on the slightest bounce.
  • #201,498
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:53pm Oct 4, 2009 3:53pm
Everything is going down except GU...any idea why?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #201,499
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:57pm Oct 4, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting mima
Everything is going down except GU...any idea why?
Not EU.
  • #201,500
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:57pm Oct 4, 2009 3:57pm
Look like we are in the 142 area now.
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm

Quoting malcolmb14
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...-10-2009-10-04

greenspan said unemployment 10 % or higher will help your short

142 key below that test 140.80
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