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Early Bird catches the Worms..GBPUSD

  • #81
  • Oct 1, 2009 11:16am Oct 1, 2009 11:16am
Quoting Fredella
Hi, this is it. It takes the mid price exactly at the starthour and startmin (06:30 UK time by default) and will only work on 5 digits brokers for now. It should work on other currencies as well.

Let me know of any issues u find with it.
Thanks Fredella, I will test it out.
  • #82
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:52am Oct 2, 2009 6:52am
Well this week repeated exactly what last week did. A loss today, bringing weekly total to +20.

I've been running the EA provided my Fredella and Friday's are definitely the weakest day.

35SL and 45TP seems most profitable. I'm going to record results for original 20/20 and 45/35.
  • #83
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:20pm Oct 2, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
Well this week repeated exactly what last week did. A loss today, bringing weekly total to +20.

I've been running the EA provided my Fredella and Friday's are definitely the weakest day.

35SL and 45TP seems most profitable. I'm going to record results for original 20/20 and 45/35.
Hi,

in my opinion thursdays aren't good either (as also proven by the results over the last few weeks). It makes almost sense to just trade this on mondays, tuesdays and wednesdays.

Are you doing backtesting and if so through the optimizer? Let me know if you want to go through that.
  • #84
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:00pm Oct 2, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting Fredella
Hi,

in my opinion thursdays aren't good either (as also proven by the results over the last few weeks). It makes almost sense to just trade this on mondays, tuesdays and wednesdays.

Are you doing backtesting and if so through the optimizer? Let me know if you want to go through that.
Hi,

Great work on the EA, really appreciate it. I haven't gone through the optimiser, just manually editing the parameters to find the best settings. Buffer of 14 pips starting at 6.10 with 35SL and 45TP so far proves best with no trading on Friday.

Would it be possible for you to build in the option to ignore Thursday's, as you have for Friday's?

Thanks again.
  • #85
  • Oct 3, 2009 3:35am Oct 3, 2009 3:35am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Hi,

Great work on the EA, really appreciate it. I haven't gone through the optimiser, just manually editing the parameters to find the best settings. Buffer of 14 pips starting at 6.10 with 35SL and 45TP so far proves best with no trading on Friday.

Would it be possible for you to build in the option to ignore Thursday's, as you have for Friday's?

Thanks again.
No, all thanks should go to you for coming up with this idea. Attached a new version with a parameter 'TradeOnThursdays'

Fredella
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 O73OBreakout.ex4   10 KB | 299 downloads
  • #86
  • Oct 3, 2009 7:07am Oct 3, 2009 7:07am
Hi Fredella,

I've just ran the EA again and I'm getting vastly different results?

Any ideas?
  • #87
  • Oct 3, 2009 8:30am Oct 3, 2009 8:30am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Hi Fredella,

I've just ran the EA again and I'm getting vastly different results?

Any ideas?
Hi, i might have changed the level of the Init, SL and TP parameters or is that even when u fix them to your preferred settings? The only other change was the thursday option. You should be able to switch back to the old version if you delete your current ex4 and replace with the older one.
  • #88
  • Oct 3, 2009 10:05am Oct 3, 2009 10:05am
I've tried all of above and still over 50% difference...very odd.

Could you try for me? 5.10 GMT, 14 pip buffer, 35SL 45TP. I ran it from 1/1/08 to 30/9/09 and achieved $26k profit using 1 lot on a $10k bank. Max drawdown of 18%. Trades on Friday was set to false.
  • #89
  • Oct 3, 2009 12:49pm Oct 3, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
I've tried all of above and still over 50% difference...very odd.

Could you try for me? 5.10 GMT, 14 pip buffer, 35SL 45TP. I ran it from 1/1/08 to 30/9/09 and achieved $26k profit using 1 lot on a $10k bank. Max drawdown of 18%. Trades on Friday was set to false.

Hi,

for both versions i get $14,800 as the final result, i.e. a gain of $4,800. I imagine that using the same start time across the seasons is not going to work as in winter 5.10 GMT = 5.10 UK time, whereas in summer it will be 6.10 UK time. I have a feeling that the reason why this strategy is working recently is the closeness to 07.00 UK which is when FTSE company results are made public. This has a direct impact on the value of the pound vs. the dollar, i.e. i think that traders are using company strength as an indicator of what the pound should be doing. So i think in the winter the time should be adjusted to 06.10 GMT (or maybe 06.30 GMT or 06.55 GMT, which seems to also do very well - i.e 05.55 currently). Thoughts?
  • #90
  • Edited 2:05pm Oct 3, 2009 2:03pm | Edited 2:05pm
Hi Dubai and others,

i have just found your thread but have been following and contributing to Tasciys 4-6 am gmt thread.

since July i have been playing with various times, Sl and TP's, starting off with SL 25 and TP 50 and have come to the conclusion that 3-5 am gmt (4-6 am UK) is the best time for the box, with a SL of 15 and TP of 50.

I also use 90 ema (close) for trade direction and my entries are box high + spread +1 pip for buying and box low -1 pip for selling...

Attached is a spreadsheet with the 3 sets of firgures:

1. SL 15, TP 20
2. SL 15, TP 50
3. SL 15, TP 50 with taking half lots off @ +20

In all cases 15 pips equals 1% risk and i move the SL to break even at +20 pips. All results on the overall page are % profit or loss for that month...

the figures that are highlighted in yellow are actual results i have had on my live account and you will see that from Oct i have started using the 15/50 method....

The backtest results are done visually by me using Jasons box breakout indicator from Tasciys thread so there may be some trade results that are incorrect BUT even if a couple of trades a month are wrong, all 3 methods results are still good enough for me...

Anyways apologies for the long post and i hope this helps in some way

Many pips to all

Grant

ps. please make sure you do your own due diligence with regards to backtests. i know i would check for myself if someone published their own results...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls breakout 15-20-50 backtest.xls   48 KB | 388 downloads
  • #91
  • Oct 3, 2009 2:16pm Oct 3, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting Fredella
Hi,

for both versions i get $14,800 as the final result, i.e. a gain of $4,800. I imagine that using the same start time across the seasons is not going to work as in winter 5.10 GMT = 5.10 UK time, whereas in summer it will be 6.10 UK time. I have a feeling that the reason why this strategy is working recently is the closeness to 07.00 UK which is when FTSE company results are made public. This has a direct impact on the value of the pound vs. the dollar, i.e. i think that traders are using company strength as an indicator of what the pound...
Totally agree regarding the time change when the UK switches back its clocks.

However, what's really annoying me is the huge variance in profits. I definitely saw $16k profit with the settings I mentioned. Very bizarre.

Is there anyway we can build in the time change into the EA? I believe this strategy is definitely better than breakeven and should continue to work whilst we're experiencing the markets we're in right now. With some good MM I think we can get somewhere.

Grant, thanks for your post and the effort of posting your s/sheet, much appreciated. I'm currently live (demo) testing the NY breakout on GU and EU. I got the idea from Big Dog Breakout and I've run with it and found a very helpful indicator that eliminates a lot of losing trades. I've manually backtested to May 09 so far and I'm experiencing around 80% success. September produced 350 pips for the two combined, a fair return for a small input of time..
  • #92
  • Oct 3, 2009 2:39pm Oct 3, 2009 2:39pm
Dubai,

your more than welcome, After learnig so much on here its nice to be able to give back to the FF community.

any chance of sharing the "helpful indicator"?? lol

No worries if you cant

Many pips to you

Grant
  • #93
  • Oct 3, 2009 2:43pm Oct 3, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting grant18265
Dubai,

your more than welcome, After learnig so much on here its nice to be able to give back to the FF community.

any chance of sharing the "helpful indicator"?? lol

No worries if you cant

Many pips to you

Grant
Absolutely. I'll make an entry on the BD thread over the weekend.

Have a good weekend, catch you soon.
  • #94
  • Oct 4, 2009 12:04pm Oct 4, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
Totally agree regarding the time change when the UK switches back its clocks.

However, what's really annoying me is the huge variance in profits. I definitely saw $16k profit with the settings I mentioned. Very bizarre.

Is there anyway we can build in the time change into the EA? I believe this strategy is definitely better than breakeven and should continue to work whilst we're experiencing the markets we're in right now. With some good MM I think we can get somewhere.

Grant, thanks for your post and the effort of posting your s/sheet, much...
Hi, i have searched everywhere but it doesn't seem MT4 can take into account local timezones. It just uses the time that your broker is set to, in my case IBFX which is GMT. The only way is to split up your testing between winter zone and summer zone and adjust the start time accordingly.

Sorry for having to give you this bad news :-(
  • #95
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:20pm Oct 4, 2009 10:20pm
No worries, Fredella, I'll get to it this week.

Be interesting to watch how it plays out this week.
  • #96
  • Oct 11, 2009 9:42am Oct 11, 2009 9:42am
Anxious to see your post this weekend as you did promise!

Quoting DubaiTrader
No worries, Fredella, I'll get to it this week.

Be interesting to watch how it plays out this week.
  • #97
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:03am Oct 21, 2009 3:03am
Well after a bad week last week, it's roared back this with with 3 wins thus far. By only trading it Mon-Wed You'd be +120 since start of the thread. I'm still monitoring this and working on different variations but good to see the original method still going strong.
  • #98
  • Oct 21, 2009 8:50am Oct 21, 2009 8:50am
Hi DT,

Please which of the EAs are you using, the 0730Breakout or the EarlyBird(2), and what settings are you using for the EA?

Thanks.
  • #99
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:12pm Dec 2, 2009 9:12pm
i see the last post is on 21/10/9

has everyone moved away from this?

dubai whats your results like here?
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #100
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:18pm Dec 2, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting maq
i see the last post is on 21/10/9

has everyone moved away from this?

dubai whats your results like here?
Results are okay without being anything special. It's definitely advisable to only trade this Mon-Wed. However the London breakout method is far more profitable long term.
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