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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #201,441
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:02am Oct 4, 2009 7:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
maybe u taking it the wrong way..and when he say "bull trap" maybe he means trend change trap, that is the trap people can fall into loading up, thinking trend will change...why people choose to attack people analysis is beyond me... and u know he is a position trader, so 500 pip to him isnt a big deal

news flash..any1 can get it wrong!!! I personally think he is a great trader, he post his thought and they make sense, and u knock him! why?

if u attack someone based on analysis going wrong then i think theres an issue there somewhere..i just...

Cheers bro, happy trading this week
  • #201,442
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:08am Oct 4, 2009 7:08am
direct-trade i agree with you completely on the bull trap and although i only trade cable i see USDJPY wants to trap some ppl also.

that being said i believe price will initially go up once markets open as they had upward momentum before friday close. At which point i will start looking for reversal signals.
  • #201,443
  • Edited 7:23am Oct 4, 2009 7:10am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting wormboy
Hi dt.
We had spiralled 2345 pips without any meaningful retrace, so might be worth considering.
That being said, I take it one day at a time & as of the close last friday, we still selling.
depends what you mean by significant retrace. its retraced 400+ pips a few times during the drop (this is at least the 3rd time its retrace over 400 pips). this latest one from 139.70 to 144.50 is another 470 pip retrace, no different than the previous ones during this downtrend.

if it breaks and closes above 145 i think most will start looking long.

weekend prices so far have gapped as low as 142.30 3 times so far. currently at 142.50. gap likely to close before the open like it usually does but it may indicate the likely direction once things get moving again. if it does gap down on open it will likely close the gap before dropping.

of course if the japanese finance minister stopped doing 180 degree turns on every comment he makes then things would probably be a lot easier, but then he is 77 years old, he probably cant even remember what he said the day before.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=adZXViRq4aOc
  • #201,444
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:56am Oct 4, 2009 7:56am
The Japanese Finance Minister comments are interesting. I've been loosely following comments out of Japan since the fall from 250 and the conclusion i've come to is they won't dare catch a falling knife. The downmove from 163 has been strong and any intervention would have been preceeded by leaks and comments beforehand. This may explain the rise after NFP, but until we see headlines stating that Japan are looking actively at prices, any talk of intervention is just that.

The other side of this coin though is the weakness of Sterling. If the market decides to dump Sterling and the Dollar, (which they have been doing), the BoJ will not intervene IMO. It would cost them too much money.

140 region is indeed strong support, but not strong enough to halt this train yet.
  • #201,445
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:01am Oct 4, 2009 8:01am
Quoting ukdaytrader
This may explain the rise after NFP

it DOES explain the rise after nfp, there was a rumour that BoJ was 'checking rates' i.e. preparing to intervene. was later denied by a large japanese bank. so entire up move may have been based on a BS rumour spread by someone who had just gone long and thought they might let a little rumour slip to make themselves a couple hundred easy pips.
  • #201,446
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:03am Oct 4, 2009 8:03am
i have been looking at gbp/jpy for some time now .. but i have not caught the hang of it
  • #201,447
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:08am Oct 4, 2009 8:08am
In this day an age a single government doesnt exist IMO

Ever since BOE almost went broke trying to stablize their falling currency with intervention, the structure has changed.

Now is a Global intervention, 1 conference call well in advance at a particular price and the buyers start non stop all they can eat.These are the cycle players, multy decade traders
Remember Euro at .82xx G7 hit market with multiple biilions at once hence CLIMAX price has never returned and prolly never will. Each currency is in this infrastructure. It will go where they want it to go and noone can stop it,

As for strong selling, its more like no demand, ever market is a BEAR meaket, with no buyers prices drop exponetially.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #201,448
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:21am Oct 4, 2009 8:21am
Hi Traders!

On this market nobody is wrong or right, Geppy is the most volatile pair -just google it-, that's why we love it, so, try to catch all moves (up or down) is very hard, all traders in one single day could making profits (long or short), IMHO.

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Link

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #201,449
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:59am Oct 4, 2009 8:59am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi Traders!

On this market nobody is wrong or right, Geppy is the most volatile pair -just google it-, that's why we love it, so, try to catch all moves (up or down) is very hard, all traders in one single day could making profits (long or short), IMHO.

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Link

Jhon

nice bro i agree gu is the most volatile pair in majors..

anyways havea look at weeken prises there
http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quote...ish_pound.html

i got it from a friend

Trade.Wisley
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #201,450
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:39am Oct 4, 2009 9:39am
Quoting ewokuk
depends what you mean by significant retrace. its retraced 400+ pips a few times during the drop (this is at least the 3rd time its retrace over 400 pips). this latest one from 139.70 to 144.50 is another 470 pip retrace, no different than the previous ones during this downtrend.

if it breaks and closes above 145 i think most will start looking long.
Means since that I've held short from 158 level after the weekly closed bearish engulfing, the 7 weeks that followed had no reversal pattern whatsoever that might suggest a retrace.
I try not chase the 400 pips when the downtrend is very strong. That is how I trade
Anyway good luck with your trading.
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Thank You
  • #201,451
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:11am Oct 4, 2009 10:11am
I have created another thread.

G/J, G/U & G/J Trading Thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post3115258

Committed to serious trading and free from a particular troll or two.

I will be posting there with many others from now on, you are all welcome to join us there.

All the best
  • #201,452
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:12am Oct 4, 2009 10:12am
My targets still are 1.52, 1.35, 1.1950. All my weekly indicators are very bearish:

1. MACD hidden bearish divergence (green TLs)

2. H&S broke NL (orange TL) and should complete itself @ 1.5150

3. Weekly PA is under 50ema, 100sma, 5sma, GANN

4. QQE turned bearish and should cross 50 line soon....

I've shorting this pair since 1.6715 and building good size position and SL is +200 from my average position. IMO, we still have red candles and friday PA was a bull trap.
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Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #201,453
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:30am Oct 4, 2009 10:30am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3066210&postcount=198202

Donfriday, I will leave you with this final comment:

Post in link above shows when I called the last “Bulltrap” at 15030 area. I would say a 1100 pip drop from that rise kind of confirms who is “full of sh*t“ as you say in a previous post to me.…wouldn’t you?

All the best, enjoy your “DonFriday Thread” which this thread seems to be.
  • #201,454
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:46am Oct 4, 2009 10:46am
Quoting direct-trade
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3066210&postcount=198202

[font=Arial][size=3][font=Arial][size=3]Donfriday, I will leave you with this final comment:

Post in link above shows when I called the last “Bulltrap” at 15030 area. I would say a 1100 pip drop from that rise kind of...

What else can i say to you masta Direct-trader? ...maybe i'm only a dump head trader who spend just 9months to learn forex without paying anything to anyone to teach me. i just want u to accept the truth a free pips of 500pips is not a trap but delicious green which u can grab and clean mouth..
i am not against ur analysis if tanking or trap but the 500pips trap is damn to huge to be called a trap that is it bro ....
your problem is u dont accept the truth and u forget human being are different with different opinion .
enjoy bro and i wish u million pips..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #201,455
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:52am Oct 4, 2009 10:52am
[quote=Fudomyo;3115276]I've been giving lot of thought to what's happening in the markets this weekend and wanted to share my thoughts.


Yeah bro i have same scenario and i only hope it goes there since they call it a trap...I've look at EG,GU,UJ ....it seems to be weekly retracement to me but let see how we open this week..
cheers bro
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #201,456
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:41am Oct 4, 2009 11:41am
well it doesn't matter when they appear. i'm sure you know that big boys are using news release to load/unload their positions, so your argument doesn't stand.
i am not biased for next week. let's just watch price action.

p.s. i'll be back with some charts soon.

Quoting direct-trade

If the daily pin bars were on any other day apart from NFP etc, I would give them more credability. I still see a fall from here IMHO.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #201,457
  • Oct 4, 2009 12:29pm Oct 4, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi Traders!

On this market nobody is wrong or right, Geppy is the most volatile pair -just google it-, that's why we love it, so, try to catch all moves (up or down) is very hard, all traders in one single day could making profits (long or short), IMHO.

Attachment

Link

Jhon
Jhon here is chart showing that ,

117 down
136 up
83 down
99 up
50 down
50 up
all in us session

that is why I day trade .... all I need is 2 x 50 pip moves day = 2000 per month no stress really

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #201,458
  • Edited 12:54pm Oct 4, 2009 12:36pm | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Jhon here is chart showing that ,

117 down
136 up
83 down
99 up
50 down
50 up
all in us session

that is why I day trade .... all I need is 2 x 50 pip moves day = 2000 per month no stress really

Attachment
thats if you can reliably pick these turning points which 99.99% of people, like me, cant seem to do. im having to look at longer trades now because im not getting the shorter ones right . id rather trade intraday, i dont like sitting there with nothing to click.
  • #201,459
  • Oct 4, 2009 12:39pm Oct 4, 2009 12:39pm
here is the first part of my analysis, starting with the highest tf.

- monthly shows that price hit a very important support @ 139/140 area (PVP monthly is @ 138.90 - last low was 139.72). compared to previous s/r (230 and 206) this one seems stronger, so i expect a significant bounce from this region. but let's watch price action.

- weekly shows two important resistance levels: upper 149 and lower 156. this is the first target; if these levels are taken, then up we go: 180/206. if not, then back to 139.

higher tfs show that trend is still down and that we just hit a strong support.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #201,460
  • Oct 4, 2009 12:41pm Oct 4, 2009 12:41pm
let's continue with daily and h4.

- daily shows a possible reversal pattern, and when i know that we hit a monthly support i will be very careful with shorts from here. daily PVP is at upper 154 area, which means that all major action took place in that area. i would think that sooner or later, that level will be tested again; also, keep in mind that weekly PVP (156.22) for the current down swing is just at ~150 pips from daily PVP, another reason for price to come back for more fun at those levels.

- and finally, h4 shows resistance at 143.70 (h4 PVP). based on friday's volumes, it also shows strong support at 140.89.

current configuration shows price is still in bearish territory, but with a strong support @ 139/140.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
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