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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,561
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:46am Oct 4, 2009 2:46am
Quoting yonnie
sorry Pharoah.

I must come over too strong and I apologize for that.

I actually made an error in post 4554 and that`s how I led you astray with the money management thingy.

sorry
It's ok, we're all human, I stated my take on the situation, you respected that, and noted an error on your part. I fully agree with you in everything you just said. I just believe that overall the TP1 half position is the overall key to any kind of long term success, oh, and this is taking into play your 50+50- pip box from 1st 4H close. I think that was one of the most brilliant suggestions I've seen in the time I've been here. And that includes my Smartstop system... and believe me, I've got faith in that.
  • #4,562
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:30am Oct 4, 2009 7:30am
Quoting yonnie
this is not a guessing game........sorry
I guess you don't want me to guess . . . I thought the purpose of a puzzle was to try to solve it, which sometimes involves educated guesses, other times dumb luck.

I noted that no one had even acknowledged your puzzle, and thought you might appreciate some sort of answer/response/guess/shot in the dark. I guess not.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,563
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:41am Oct 4, 2009 7:41am
Quoting PiPsAddict
ouch...
Thanks for sharing my pain.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,564
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:42am Oct 4, 2009 7:42am
Quoting Pharoah
I just believe that overall the TP1 half position is the overall key to any kind of long term success, oh, and this is taking into play your 50+50- pip box from 1st 4H close. I think that was one of the most brilliant suggestions I've seen in the time I've been here.
I like the idea of using the 4H close as well, and stated it before, but has anyone back tested it, or does it just "sound" good?

I'm in the early stages of a back test for 2009, but wanted to see if anyone has actually finished a back test that would provide some validity to the idea.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,565
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:04am Oct 4, 2009 8:04am
The weekend G7 meeting discussed on the weakness of the dollar and presses on appreciation of the yuan. Would this have an impact on Monday morning which will affect our H4 breakout trading? Given that October is traditionally a tough trading period, should we be more prudent now?

Appreciate some valuable advise.
  • #4,566
  • Oct 4, 2009 12:44pm Oct 4, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting Msl10
Given that October is traditionally a tough trading period, should we be more prudent now? Appreciate some valuable advise.
Who knows what the future will hold, but take a look at the charts for last October . . . this system would have done very well indeed.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,567
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:08pm Oct 4, 2009 2:08pm
Ironically enough, last october was when the bailout was signed. Thus, the increased volatility.
  • #4,568
  • Oct 4, 2009 3:52pm Oct 4, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Ironically enough, last october was when the bailout was signed. Thus, the increased volatility.
Good point, RR.

It seems that with each new month comes a post from someone stating that the month ahead could be rough for any number of reasons. Eventually, one either has to develop a level of comfort with trading or just stay out of the market during the rough months of January through December.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,569
  • Oct 4, 2009 4:10pm Oct 4, 2009 4:10pm
A couple of posters, a while back, mentioned the similarity of this system to the First Strike Plus strategy. I'm intrigued by the use of the previous week's range to determine the entry points for the new week.

Has anyone "blended" the two strategies? Is so, how are you doing it, and how is it working?

Or, if someone has used First Strike Plus exclusively as a trading strategy, what were your results?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,570
  • Oct 4, 2009 5:28pm Oct 4, 2009 5:28pm
What are the odds of drawing 4 aces in a hand? Assuming 5 cards are drawn, the odds are 1 time in 54,145.

What are the odds of having 1 Ace on this thread? . . . maybe even less.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ace_playing_cards.jpg Size: 80 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,571
  • Oct 4, 2009 5:49pm Oct 4, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting yen44x
What are the odds of drawing 4 aces in a hand? Assuming 5 cards are drawn, the odds are 1 time in 54,145.

What are the odds of having 1 Ace on this thread? . . . maybe even less.

Attachment
... you're just too good Yen.
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #4,572
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:53pm Oct 4, 2009 6:53pm
Yen, re your query on winning/loosing second trades.
Based on someones idea of taking the close of the previou week +/- 50 for the entries, my back testing for all of '09 came to 20 winning second trades to 6 loosers. And the pips gained would have made it very worthwhile.
  • #4,573
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:08pm Oct 4, 2009 8:08pm
Hi guys,

just for the statistics

high = 143.52
low = 142.29


Plus 20 pips buffers (and spread) = 163 pip box

My long just got triggered

Good trading all
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #4,574
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:34pm Oct 4, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting faxfxfx
Hi guys,

just for the statistics

high = 143.52
low = 142.29


Plus 20 pips buffers (and spread) = 163 pip box

My long just got triggered

Good trading all
Thanks faxfxfx, i have also entered my trade.

All the best!
  • #4,575
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:36pm Oct 4, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting fxann
Thanks faxfxfx, i have also entered my trade.

All the best!
I think there's going to be a retest of the S&R line, I don't think this fight is over.
  • #4,576
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:58pm Oct 4, 2009 8:58pm
Finally finished reading the thread today. Monumental work done on this 4H breakout. Too bad ACE no longer posts here, but greats such as Pharoah and droland and others have taken his place. This will be my first week trading this method.
Pharoah, while you are here can you confirm the High/Low prices for today's box please?

All the best to you all.
  • #4,577
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:18pm Oct 4, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting bobha
Yen, re your query on winning/loosing second trades.
Based on someones idea of taking the close of the previou week +/- 50 for the entries, my back testing for all of '09 came to 20 winning second trades to 6 loosers. And the pips gained would have made it very worthwhile.
It wasn't so much a question as a statement. My back tests were far different, but I wasn't basing my trades on the close of the previous week. It's incredible that the results could change that drastically, but good for you if that's the case.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,578
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:27pm Oct 4, 2009 9:27pm
You guys are mostly still in Sunday I guess, and have entered,

I missed the close of the New 4H candle, so does anyone enter on Monday your time (Tuesday My time) :nerd:

I wish you guys could catchup this Monday is really great sorry you'll miss it
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #4,579
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:33pm Oct 4, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting Offshore
I missed the close of the New 4H candle, so does anyone enter on Monday your time (Tuesday My time) :nerd:
I don't know about Tuesday, Offshore, but some do enter based off the second 4H candle of Monday (or Tuesday there in NZ).

Quoting Offshore
I wish you guys could catchup this Monday is really great sorry you'll miss it
Yeah, but for you Sunday's history . . . and I'm still enjoying it. BTW, if you're a day ahead, shouldn't you be able to predict the future?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,580
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:34pm Oct 4, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting yen44x
Yeah, but for you Sunday's history . . . and I'm still enjoying it. BTW, if you're a day ahead, shouldn't you be able to predict the future?
Yeah offshore... what's the next market move?
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