fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

Us Dollar Index due for a pullback ?

If we pullback, could it be the right shoulder of and inverted head and shoulders ???

Need to keep that one in the back of my mind, trigger line would be that 77.350 level, target would be 78.700, well above the 4H 200 sma.

Below 1.4611, now we can start talking pullback

Market posting a reversal so far.
Watch for resistance at last week value low 1.4636 - This one is key this week.

Next support could be the next VPOC at 1.4648.

Good support could be find at the old high 1.4447 ?

Nice try for the dollar but now it faces resistance, let's see if it can get back above 77.350.

Is this end of month / quarter profit taking or something bigger ?
Looks like a pullback, but we can't tell.

Don't forget:

"The trend is your friend until the end when it bends"

EURUSD still in pullback mode, making daily lower lows and lower highs.

The developing MP parameters for September so far are:

1.4804 VA High
1.4698 Poc
1.4516 VA Low

The 1.4516 is very important and should be a good long swing trade placement for the start of October.

Tomorrow is the last day of the month and the quarter...

Consolidating between last week value low 1.4636 and yesterday's Poc.

Watching for a range with the monthly value low 1.4516 to provide support and last week value low 1.4636 to provide resistance.

Expecting Eurusd to breakout to the upside, perhaps tomorrow ?

Today being the last day of the month / quarter will watch the 1.4698 Monthly Poc

Taking a long 1.4600 target 1.4690

Long setup

Trade going well adding to longs at last week value low at 1.4636, target 1.4690
Average price with the adds 1.4608

In the vicinity of 1.4690 we have:

50% retracement of 1.4845 and 1.4527
Last week POC
1 Hour 200 sma
R2 at 1.4708

Once we'll breach 1.4644 and close above it, price should stay above it, if not then I will start to unload the longs...

Note: 3 days upside break at 1.4725

As forecasted eurusd finding resistance at last week value low 1.4636.

usdchf not giving up so far, but oscillator in negative territory.

Ok, got the push past 1.4644, now we should build momentum higher and have 1.4644 as support.

nice push

Nice volatility pick up.
Closed all longs below 1.4636.

Re-opened longs at PP 1.4589.

Now the question is, will we test 1.4719 monthly swing point before month end.
So target is 1.4715.

I'm betting on it

Yesterday's plan didn't unfold, so I sold all below 1.4636 again.
Flat now

New month and new quarter.

September monthly values are:

1.4792 Value high
1.4698 Poc
1.4520 Value low

For October, below 1.4520 we should get support at august value high at 1.4412. Below that point, the up trend should be questioned.

Will still buy dips, especially below 1.4520

Rule: Don't dig yourself into a hole when you first sit down.

No need to force things, the month will be very long.

Hitting the monthly value low and bouncing...

Got longs at 1.4525 for a swing trade target around 1.4800

I would like to see price close above 1.4565 tonight.

Notice how yesteday's value low, stayed in last month value. We're at support, in the 1.4520-1.4494 zone.

Waiting for eurusd to bounce, and if it does will watch for monthly value high as first target at 1.4792.

Will add to swing longs at 1.4494 VPOC, we're still in pullback mode unless 1.4412 is taken.

We could have a big ride today...

Waiting for the job data.

Some thoughts:

On the monthly, we already hit 1.4511 pullback - The 50% retracement of September range 1.4844-1.4177. 1.4432 is the 61.8% retracement.

1.4447 the former high.

1.4673 is the 50% retracement from this pullback from 1.4844.

Developing Monthly distribution, keep an eye on breakdown / breakout levels.

1.4541 the point of control so far.

Added to swing long at 1.4494 as planned, now will wait for the bounce...

Looks like we could consolidate above the breakout point 1.4572.
If it's the case then we'll have a reversal.
Keeping the long swing trade, will close it if there's a "no" result in the Irish referendum.

We'll see next week... now it's time for some week-end fun