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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,401
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:10pm Sep 30, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting Pharoah
Ahh, missed that "every week" part.

I'm a little confused on it still Yonnie, could you post an image of your example?
I think what Yonnie saying is that no matter what the size of the first H4 candle you simply add 50 pips to the close of the candle (making this the high of the box) and subtract 50 pips from the close of the candle (making this the low of the box). This way the box would be exactly 100 pips each week no matter what.

If I've misunderstood you Yonnie, don't hesitate to give me a virtual slap to the back of the head
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  • #4,402
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:14pm Sep 30, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting wrenski
Very good Yen, you get an "A" for reading and comprehending.
Thanks much, Wrenski . . . here, I'm used to getting "B's" . . . burros, birria, burritos, beer . . . oh wait, that last one's English, right?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,403
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:19pm Sep 30, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
I think what Yonnie saying is that no matter what the size of the first H4 candle you simply add 50 pips to the close of the candle (making this the high of the box) and subtract 50 pips from the close of the candle (making this the low of the box). This way the box would be exactly 100 pips each week no matter what.

If I've misunderstood you Yonnie, don't hesitate to give me a virtual slap to the back of the head
I would agree 100% if this is the case. Also gives us a better entry position on huge ranging weeks and a much more realistic takeprofit point to close half the position.

If this is the case, it could be done this way

Week 1st 4h bar close +50 pips = high - 50 pips = low

Trade gets triggered, trade gets closed out, once the bar that closed the trade out closes, add 50 pips to form a new high, and subtract 50 pips to form a new low from that 4H bar close, trade gets triggered, gets stopped out, at the close of that 4H bar, add +50 pips to form a new high, subtract 50 pips to form a new low from that 4H bar close.

This will allow us to benifit even during ranging weeks, as in most cases, the boxes would form above or below the true 4H bar box.

This is also assuming my smartstop system is what's stopping out your trades in a profitable manner, and also assuming that the 1st 4H bar size has no real correlation with the particulars that effect this system.
  • #4,404
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:33pm Sep 30, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting Pharoah
I would agree 100% if this is the case. Also gives us a better entry position on huge ranging weeks and a much more realistic takeprofit point to close half the position.

If this is the case, it could be done this way

Week 1st 4h bar close +50 pips = high - 50 pips = low

Trade gets triggered, trade gets closed out, once the bar that closed the trade out closes, add 50 pips to form a new high, and subtract 50 pips to form a new low from that 4H bar close, trade gets triggered, gets stopped out, at the close of that 4H bar, add +50 pips to...
I hadn't thought of it this way, but it does add an interesting element to the system. So essentially, we're forming new boxes once the previous boxes trade had been closed/stopped out according to "system rules"?

This could have the potential to be profitable in ranging weeks, yet still hold true to Ace's original system should a true breakout occur. The catch is that "multiple boxes" during the week could allow one to catch a mid to late week breakout.

Have I got that correct Pharoah?
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  • #4,405
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:41pm Sep 30, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
I hadn't thought of it this way, but it does add an interesting element to the system. So essentially, we're forming new boxes once the previous boxes trade had been closed/stopped out according to "system rules"?

This could have the potential to be profitable in ranging weeks, yet still hold true to Ace's original system should a true breakout occur. The catch is that "multiple boxes" during the week could allow one to catch a mid to late week breakout.

Have I got that correct Pharoah?
No, because we are now discussing how the entry for the original system could be modified to give us better chances. There should only be 1 box drawn at any given time.

What I'm suggesting is this

Week starts, 1st 4H bar closes at 143.00, we add 50 pips to form the high at 143.50, and subtract 50 pips to form the low at 142.50, we now have a 100 pip box.

A trade triggers long at 143.50, and follows my smartstop rules, Trade gets closed out at 146.50 for a profit of 300 pips. Once this trade closes out, and the bar has closed, add 50 pips to this close to form a new box high at 147.00, and subtract 50 pips from this close to form a new box low 146.00.

We now have a brand new box for the week. Rinse, Recycle, and Repeat. Do this until friday. I believe this will allow us to take advantage of those ranging weeks
  • #4,406
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:47pm Sep 30, 2009 5:47pm
So for instance with this week, you can see that if you opened with 2 positions (using proper MM) you would have been long at 140.85. First position would've closed at TP1 (141.85) and second position would've closed just below TP3 (143.50) using Pharoah's smartstop.

Position 1 = +100
Position 2 = +265
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_sept 3009_pharoah_yonnie.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #4,407
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:49pm Sep 30, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting Pharoah
No, because we are now discussing how the entry for the original system could be modified to give us better chances. There should only be 1 box drawn at any given time.

What I'm suggesting is this

Week starts, 1st 4H bar closes at 143.00, we add 50 pips to form the high at 143.50, and subtract 50 pips to form the low at 142.50, we now have a 100 pip box.

A trade triggers long at 143.50, and follows my smartstop rules, Trade gets closed out at 146.50 for a profit of 300 pips. Once this trade closes out, and the bar has closed, add 50 pips to this...
That's what I said.... or at least what I meant
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  • #4,408
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:51pm Sep 30, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
So for instance with this week, you can see that if you opened with 2 positions (using proper MM) you would have been long at 140.85. First position would've closed at TP1 (141.85) and second position would've closed just below TP3 (143.50) using Pharoah's smartstop.

Position 1 = +100
Position 2 = +265
Exactly right

Now, because the whole order has been closed, check what bar the rest of the trade closed at, record that bars close, add 50 pips to that close, and subtract 50 pips from that close. This would be your new box according to what I'm explaining.
  • #4,409
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:53pm Sep 30, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
That's what I said.... or at least what I meant

Then yes, you are right

We need someone to code this into an EA, this appears to be a fantastic breakthrough in breakout trading. Needs backtesting and realtime testing.
  • #4,410
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:55pm Sep 30, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting Pharoah
Exactly right

Now, because the whole order has been closed, check what bar the rest of the trade closed at, record that bars close, add 50 pips to that close, and subtract 50 pips from that close. This would be your new box according to what I'm explaining.
All we need now is an EA to test this.

I wish I was a programmer, but I still have to take off my socks when I count to more than 10
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  • #4,411
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:57pm Sep 30, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
All we need now is an EA to test this.

I wish I was a programmer, but I still have to take off my socks when I count to more than 10
Code makes my eyes bleed
  • #4,412
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:18pm Sep 30, 2009 6:18pm
Quoting Pharoah
Code makes my eyes bleed
Here's the new box with targets assuming what we have been discussing in the previous posts:

Notice how price has been consolidating within the new box for the past two days..... which is a good sign that another breakout may be on the horizon.

I know that with it being NFP week.. all bets are off here, and PA will not be normal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_sept 3009_pharoah_yonnie_2.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #4,413
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:26pm Sep 30, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
Here's the new box with targets assuming what we have been discussing in the previous posts:

Notice how price has been consolidating within the new box for the past two days..... which is a good sign that another breakout may be on the horizon.

I know that with it being NFP week.. all bets are off here, and PA will not be normal.
Nice, you understand my idea perfectly
  • #4,414
  • Sep 30, 2009 11:16pm Sep 30, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
All we need now is an EA to test this.
I wish I was a programmer, but I still have to take off my socks when I count to more than 10
Man, that stinks . . . but I'm in the same sockless snafu.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,415
  • Sep 30, 2009 11:31pm Sep 30, 2009 11:31pm
Yen man, u commin or what? lol
  • #4,416
  • Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm Sep 30, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yen man, u commin or what? lol
Yeah, I was out most of the day today (outside, not "out" as in "passed out"), and wouldn't you know it . . . page after page of posts. Before someone comments on the coincidence, yes, it probably is all my fault. Normally when I'm done posting my jokes, there's no room left on the page for others.

Anyway, I'll be absorbing all the posts from earlier, and will try to formulate a response worthy of the fine ideas expressed today.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,417
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:16am Oct 1, 2009 1:16am
Quoting Brotyboy
I have a limited understanding of maths, but I thought a mathematical correlation either existed or did not and if it existed it could be proved and shown. I know you're streets ahead of me as a scientist/mathematician, but to what degree is there a correlation between box size and SL/TP either on an absolute basis or as a function of the box size? If you're not saying there is no direct correlation, how can we identify those boxes/weeks when there is a direct correlation? Sorry for my bad brain.
Bal
For a guy with a "bad brain", this is one awesome post . . . you've managed to combine tact with just the right touch of sarcasm and still get your point across.

The more I read it, the more I enjoy it. Which is quite a compliment, considering there were no Google pictures in it to keep me entertained.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,418
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:22am Oct 1, 2009 1:22am
Quoting yonnie
and what about adding/subtracting 40-50 pips to the closing price and have a 80-100 pips box every week.
closing price +/- 50 pips: 143.50; box is 144.00 high and 143.00 low
closing price +/- 40 pips: 143.50; box is 143.90 high and 143.10 low
so simple
And, Yonnie, this was the other great post of the day IMHO. This idea is genius in its simplicity, and yet incorporates everything we talked about before in terms of the box having no correlation to SL or TP.

Be careful, in a week I'll be referring to it as the Yen Breakthrough and taking full credit.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,419
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:25am Oct 1, 2009 1:25am
Quoting PiPsAddict
I wonder if Ace is the member who is listed as "Invisible" at the bottom of the page where it lists which traders are viewing the thread?
Quoting shiko
it is me
Shiko, if you're going to tell everyone, doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose of being "Invisible"?

It's kind of like when the Invisible Man wears clothes . . . what's the point?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,420
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:33am Oct 1, 2009 1:33am
Quoting PiPsAddict
Don't get me started Yen.... there's already plenty of yuk, yuk going on in here. I should be studying charts, but now you've compelled me to start scouring google for pictures or burros, burritos, beer and tequila..... actually that's not a bad idea at all....

Crap... now I'm hungry..... heading for the fridge...
Now you're starting to get it, PipsAddict . . . this is what the fancy trading books don't tell you . . . there's two secrets to successful trading . . . (1) head to the fridge, stock up, and then (2) start your search for google photos.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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