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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #2,361
  • Sep 30, 2009 9:17pm Sep 30, 2009 9:17pm
This thing has been ranging all week with no clear trend. You're doing well if you're trading the bounces between 130.7 and 131.75 on the H1.

On the M15 we see good S at 131.31 for now and, as I write, breaking R at 131.5.
  • #2,362
  • Sep 30, 2009 9:50pm Sep 30, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting opie999
This thing has been ranging all week with no clear trend. You're doing well if you're trading the bounces between 130.7 and 131.75 on the H1.

On the M15 we see good S at 131.31 for now and, as I write, breaking R at 131.5.
That's true. This week has worked out pretty good. on a longer term chart there is a trap forming. Support seems to be holding above the 200 sma. We are reaching a bottle neck. we might test support during the euro session. That seems to be the theme this week. Price goes down over night just to come back during the US session. October looks to be a breakout month up or down.
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  • #2,363
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:45pm Sep 30, 2009 10:45pm
That bottle neck appears to be a rising triangle on the H1. Price bouncing nicely off the blue DeMark line.
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  • #2,364
  • Oct 1, 2009 11:07am Oct 1, 2009 11:07am
looks like the major channel line on the daily is broken. This could be it.
  • #2,365
  • Edited 12:20pm Oct 1, 2009 12:00pm | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting sed34
looks like the major channel line on the daily is broken. This could be it.
Only if a Retest of 130.70 fails.

4 Hr EUR/JPY
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Perhaps another 2 Days for confirmation.
As Always... The Weekend is a Wildcard.

GL & hth.
  • #2,366
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:01pm Oct 1, 2009 1:01pm
its still above the 200 sma though at 129.64. if the numbers are good on nfp the usd/jpy could shoot up.
  • #2,367
  • Edited 2:03pm Oct 1, 2009 1:47pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting sed34
its still above the 200 sma though at 129.64. if the numbers are good on nfp the usd/jpy could shoot up.
SMA. (Simple Moving Average). Tell me this; What does a 200 SMA on a 4 Hr FOREXChart Tell You?

You are observing The Average of the Last 200 Bars:
Apart from the fact that it is telling you "Where Price Went"
Can you definatively tell me It Tells you Where Price is Headed?
200 x 4 (hr) = the Average (close but I'm guessing) 800 Hrs as it relates to 10 x 8 Hr Sessions.

Forex is 6 x 24. (144 Hrs) No Matter where in the world you live.

It appears to me that you are using an Old Adage from a Single Market that suggests a 200 SMA represents an Average of 4 Weeks of Trading in Stocks & Commodities

This is No Longer True if you are invested in Forex.

I have uses for MA's but not in this concept.

Pills against the Wall:
I'm looking to Scalp a Long to 0.9170.
  • #2,368
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:55pm Oct 1, 2009 1:55pm
i know we are well below the 200 on the 4 hr chart. I see your point. we're talking 200 days ago. I mainly use pivot on the daily and try to figure out price action.Also to try to discover traps. I don't just go by the 200 sma.
  • #2,369
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:18pm Oct 1, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting sed34
i know we are well below the 200 on the 4 hr chart. I see your point. we're talking 200 days ago. I mainly use pivot on the daily and try to figure out price action.Also to try to discover traps. I don't just go by the 200 sma.
OK. Not a Slight but exactly my Point. People use MA's without Understanding them.

You are NOT Looking at 200 DAYS; You are looking at the Average of the Last 200x4Hr Bars & that is picking up Mid Sessions Everywhere.

I've posted some stuff on this before. Do a search or ask PeterFM how to find it.

Stop being silly.
If I know more than you, then I shoud take Your Money.
Not a saying I feel comfortable with but it constantly rings true.

This is not "Dungens & Dragons" or whatever it was/is called. This is about the House you Live in & how much you can afford to educate your kids. Get All you can out of this period in Time for it will seem like Alpari by the time your kids are doing this but, by then, the Opportunity may be gone.
  • #2,370
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:16pm Oct 1, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting Bemac
OK. Not a Slight but exactly my Point. People use MA's without Understanding them.

You are NOT Looking at 200 DAYS; You are looking at the Average of the Last 200x4Hr Bars & that is picking up Mid Sessions Everywhere.

I've posted some stuff on this before. Do a search or ask PeterFM how to find it.

Stop being silly.
If I know more than you, then I shoud take Your Money.
Not a saying I feel comfortable with but it constantly rings true.

This is not "Dungens & Dragons" or whatever it was/is called. This is about the House you Live in & how much...
i'll look it up and come back
  • #2,371
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:29pm Oct 1, 2009 8:29pm
Nice pin bar forming on the H1 combined with strong history at 130 makes this a long - TP 130.4
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  • #2,372
  • Oct 1, 2009 9:11pm Oct 1, 2009 9:11pm
going over my charts now. Is that your retracement? i see the pair going lower. we broke the major trend line.
  • #2,373
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:12pm Oct 1, 2009 10:12pm
we're headed lower
  • #2,374
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:38pm Oct 1, 2009 10:38pm
looks like we're back at 130
  • #2,375
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:39pm Oct 1, 2009 10:39pm
130 is the bottom
headed to 131.35
  • #2,376
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:40pm Oct 1, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting RonPaul2008
130 is the bottom
headed to 131.35
based on what? give more info. show a chart.
  • #2,377
  • Oct 1, 2009 11:05pm Oct 1, 2009 11:05pm
Still seeing support between 129.76 and 130 although not sure any more how strong it is. Today we saw our lowest low since mid-July. I'd like to see price break below 129.6 before going the big short.

In the meantime I'm grabbing these 15-30 pip moves playing bouncy-bouncy. Yes it involves counter trading and yes it's dicey as hell. But I've had an unusually good session today and ended with 209 pips in the bag. Yes I'm feeling very damn lucky (at one point I was down about -300 pips) but I think after almost two and a half freaking years of studying mostly ej, I'm finally starting to get the hang of it!

Have a good London and NY session, everyone. I'm done for the week!
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  • #2,378
  • Oct 1, 2009 11:44pm Oct 1, 2009 11:44pm
do you think we go down or up when euro opens up?
  • #2,379
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:18am Oct 2, 2009 12:18am
Quoting sed34
do you think we go down or up when euro opens up?
The mini trend is down and if price truly breaks the 130, it could easily hit 129.1. Otoh, the 130 support is tough and we could just as easily see a rally to 131-132 as RonPaul said.

So, to answer your question, yes I do!

Seriously sed, prepare yourself for either possibility because one is just as likely to happen as the other.

Just noticed a spinning top on the H4 so 130 is still proving formidable.

'nighty 'night and good trading!
  • #2,380
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:23am Oct 2, 2009 11:23am
Quoting RonPaul2008
130 is the bottom
headed to 131.35
Good call, RP!
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