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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,741
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:58pm Sep 29, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Anyone noticed this about fti in his postings during live trading hours ?

The nature of the strategy can require a lot of time and attention, however, even during those "boring periods" he is still very agressive , no action taken but I can sense his agression, ever ready to pounce what opportunity arise. Whereas for me, the waiting tend to take my edge away, I am sure many others too, especially those who flip a lot.

Don't really know how to put it into words, but hope its understandable.


mARK
what comes to my mind is "boring periods"... is just the eye of the storm. the bigger the eye the bigger the storm.
i say this but i come to ff. often when waiting and borred. to me ranges are mostly random, many say trend continous most of the time.

how i think about fti he probably sees clues about conituation or reversal in the range. i should pay more attention.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,742
  • Sep 29, 2009 3:26pm Sep 29, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting j-pax
what comes to my mind is "boring periods"... is just the eye of the storm. the bigger the eye the bigger the storm.
i say this but i come to ff. often when waiting and borred. to me ranges are mostly random, many say trend continous most of the time.

how i think about fti he probably sees clues about conituation or reversal in the range. i should pay more attention.
Indeed, his skills are a result of his experience which is hard to beat, even then, he does not try to predict the market.
  • #10,743
  • Sep 29, 2009 3:30pm Sep 29, 2009 3:30pm
Interesting discussion everyone. Nice burst of thread action, and thanks for that. Can't wait for fti to return and add his 2 pips worth.

Hope you all had a great trading day. I did not make one trade all day since London open. Just couldn't see a good opty to jump on today. Try again tomorrow. Hope you all have a great day/night.
  • #10,744
  • Edited 4:05pm Sep 29, 2009 3:45pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Indeed, his skills are a result of his experience which is hard to beat, even then, he does not try to predict the market.
i remember fti saying he entered (or enters) "late". i think this is a way not to predict.
this reminded me of some market wizard or other allstar saying he got rich by "buying too late and selling too early"
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,745
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:06pm Sep 29, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting j-pax
i remember fti saying he entered "late" i think this is a way not to predict.
this reminded me of some market wizard or other allstar saying he got rich by "buying too late and selling too early"
that may be correct, however be careful not to turn it into a rigid rule.

If he were to say he entered late, he probably meant he is aware of that and is adjusting his MO/MM accordingly, rather than entering late on purpose.
  • #10,746
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:38pm Sep 29, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
that may be correct, however be careful not to turn it into a rigid rule.

If he were to say he entered late, he probably meant he is aware of that and is adjusting his MO/MM accordingly, rather than entering late on purpose.
thank you, aiyahmarklah, for the feedback, i will keep practicing not to be rigid. however i am pretty trigger-happy and i think i have to find some balance in pulling the trigger (feeling/commander) and getting confirmation of my analysis (general).

i am logout. good night or good morning, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,747
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:46pm Sep 29, 2009 4:46pm
I can only say from what little I understand...goodnight
  • #10,748
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:18pm Sep 29, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting j-pax
practicing not to be rigid. however i am pretty trigger-happy and i think i have to find some balance in pulling the trigger (feeling/commander) and getting confirmation of my analysis (general).

J-pax,

one of the problems with trying to trade in limited time is the tendency to push the action when you have a chance to trade. You can only take what the market will give, no more..... regardless of your position or intentions. Boiling it down, just because you have the time, may not be a good time,

FTI taught if you get out of step on the short charts, you had to look to the long charts for when and where to rescue, this might be irreconcilable if you haven't the time.

What is presented here, can always be used, your combat will be more of a guerrilla style campaign, take it quick and run.... but you will need to pick your battles carefully, not nonchalantly. Knowing that most positions if in the rears will have to be abandoned due to time restraints.

You need to keep FTI's comments on % to win back to overcome losses in the forefront of your thinking.

FTI's stressed the importance of a winning mindset and reslove when trading.

Don't try to be a copycat, just find the balance that works for you.
  • #10,749
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:33pm Sep 29, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting j-pax
i remember fti saying he entered (or enters) "late". i think this is a way not to predict.
this reminded me of some market wizard or other allstar saying he got rich by "buying too late and selling too early"
Hi j-pax,
This is one of my rules, or two of my rules. I will not describe late or early now, but the main idea for my (and I would really love to hear what fti says about this) strategy is to quickly capture profits and never let them go, and then always look for the re-entry points. Its how you make 100 pips on an 80 pip move.
  • #10,750
  • Edited 6:54pm Sep 29, 2009 6:44pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi j-pax,
This is one of my rules, or two of my rules. I will not describe late or early now, but the main idea for my (and I would really love to hear what fti says about this) strategy is to quickly capture profits and never let them go, and then always look for the re-entry points. Its how you make 100 pips on an 80 pip move.
Quoting aiyahmarklah
The thing about TAF thread is that its easy to get sidetracked into other subjects. The most obvious lesson that can be drawn out of his teachings is the "skew". Other subjects like "dancing", psychology etc needs careful study to really unveil what he is trying to say. Take a look at earlier students whom fti claim to have deviated from his methods, you can get a clearer picture.
Just my own $.02 here,

Its a balancing act, obviously we want to try to get as big a position on when we feel it's time, and then extract as much profit as possible, but the question is how to enter and then exit and balance all that with good risk management.

The old adage the longer you wait the less you get.

The skew, when you study it as a fibo progression does some interesting things to your average position in relation to current price as you add and take away, do some study if you haven't already. But the problem comes for most , and I think FTI has alluded to it several times that it's counter human nature to add big as the move goes along ( we never really know how far it's going ), this also brings your average close to market when you do this. So if you enter and then add once after price has shown itself on the next retrace, or the break of some type of formation, i.e wedge/shelf/candle ect. is left up to you, but obviously we want to get more loaded on the trade once we see it breaking in our direction, the quicker with less confirmation the more ground is available, the longer we hold for better feel the opposite is true, within is a balance point where the opportunity to take some off for protection against the remainder is limited

So most opt for a linear attacks with a progressive fib rescue when necessary ( bringing the average in close to average out on the retrace).

The whole concept is to gather troops, collectively throughout the day insuring a profitable one, and on the individual legs as well, imho.

The adds/attacks (how this is done has infinite variables , as is derived from the current pa) can't be left in battle for long, portions are taken to insure the remainder for the long haul. Refer to the famous FTI chart.

How you manage the captured pips in relation to the remainder is also something that needs to be addressed. But the goal is to insure the leg traded does not turn into a loss. So if the pips captured are used as a cushion against the back side of the current leg or kept as profit not allowing the move to reverse past the current average of the remainder is left up to you to figure out. Current position in relation to the prominent sup/res should dictate imho.

regards,
  • #10,751
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:56pm Sep 29, 2009 9:56pm
eyes open e/u 4632 and
a/u 8788- 8804 area
  • #10,752
  • Sep 29, 2009 10:28pm Sep 29, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting auxesis
Just my own $.02 here,



The old adage the longer you wait the less you get.
nice one... its like earlier the better..
Quote
the quicker with less confirmation the more ground is available, the longer we hold for better feel the opposite is true, within is a balance point where the opportunity to take some off for protection against the remainder is limited

Nicely said.....


Auxesis this is amazing nice comments... simple but tells a lot about MM

V
  • #10,753
  • Sep 30, 2009 2:23am Sep 30, 2009 2:23am
nicely put auxesis

I just wanted to add something ... fti sir already explained this in the thread... im just resentencing it to my words

u need to make ur decision process automatic , therefore u need to be exposed as much as possible in the market cos ur judgment capability will be derived from ur experiences in the battles ...

once u have good experience battling it in and out , it gets under ur skin ...
so please dont think too much into a lot of stuffs , just trade and let urself learn from the best teacher, market itself ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,754
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:36am Sep 30, 2009 5:36am
Quoting maheswara
u need to make ur decision process automatic , therefore u need to be exposed as much as possible in the market cos ur judgment capability will be derived from ur experiences in the battles ...

once u have good experience battling it in and out , it gets under ur skin ...
so please dont think too much into a lot of stuffs , just trade and let urself learn from the best teacher, market itself ...
i am exposed now. just EU short scout in @4660. lets see if the upmove was a retracement.
i will read the great posts later.
maheswara, i realy hope you are not affected by the earthquake
wishing you the best, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,755
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:40am Sep 30, 2009 5:40am
Happy trading day to everyone. I have been in the $/CAD and the $/CHF today, and am now on the sidelines waiting for new entry points. Hope everyone is trading well. Just heard on the news a minute ago of another big earthquake in the Pacific, this time off the coast of Western Indonesia, so if anyone is within tsunami range, take care now.
  • #10,756
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:38am Sep 30, 2009 6:38am
Anyone tuned to the last EUR rally?
@J - I hope it all goes well there for you. To me it seems like the action is not over yet, just taking a deep breath, so I am currently on the sideline waiting for the price action to reveal itself.
  • #10,757
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:47am Sep 30, 2009 6:47am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi MaMood, those experiences only make you stronger right ?

Dear j-pax, I agree, the hours required are long and can mean many sleepless nights. I feel the same way about needing full time effort to learn, I took a drastic step and left my job to learn this stuff full time before returning to my career. I intended it to be a year, thing is, today I am entering into the 3rd year trading "fulltime", don't think I will be looking back anymore. My friends still think I am crazy.....


Regards
Good one. An inspiration to us all. Keep up the good work in full time trading. Ray
  • #10,758
  • Sep 30, 2009 7:28am Sep 30, 2009 7:28am
Quoting maheswara
[...]u need to make ur decision process automatic , therefore u need to be exposed as much as possible in the market cos ur judgment capability will be derived from ur experiences in the battles ...

once u have good experience battling it in and out , it gets under ur skin ...
so please dont think too much into a lot of stuffs , just trade and let urself learn from the best teacher, market itself ...
Very well said!
  • #10,759
  • Sep 30, 2009 9:50am Sep 30, 2009 9:50am
OK, I have traded the GBP/Y south since the NY open and am now watching for another entry. Hope you are all trading well and its good to see some activity on the thread today. US equities are getting hammered now and oil is down slightly. I will hang around long enough to see if this correction goes deeper. Take care everyone and stay focused. Trade.
  • #10,760
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:09am Sep 30, 2009 10:09am
Hello. I have to write something. It is written, that "trend is your friend". So, i just put a line, plot it to the chart, and it shows me the trend.... Of course it can differs due to timeframe...
But this is so simple as it is silly...
There is a lot of people who must still repeat the formula "trend is your friend"
So possibly such people are often defeated and lose money. That can be what "good and big" want them to know...
So i am not believer of "trend is your friend more"....
Feel the market is OK.
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