Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 537 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,721
  • Sep 28, 2009 3:42pm Sep 28, 2009 3:42pm
I would sit on my hands at this time (Unless your a tic scalper) as the energy sector is out to lunch while the equities hyper illusion crunch Sustains a quick recovery that will not hold for too long. Hence the one day rebound from last weeks 3 day decline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QMX9 60M.jpg Size: 42 KB
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #10,722
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:33pm Sep 28, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
I would sit on my hands at this time (Unless your a tic scalper) as the energy sector is out to lunch while the equities hyper illusion crunch Sustains a quick recovery that will not hold for too long. Hence the one day rebound from last weeks 3 day decline.

Just made me think where i am...
  • #10,723
  • Edited 8:46am Sep 29, 2009 4:23am | Edited 8:46am
Happy trading day everyone. Watching several pairs now but really focused on the $/CAD and the GBP/$. Waiting. Been pretty quiet here the last few days, and I hope everyone is trading well. I will pass on discussing oil, so good luck with that. Trade well and stay focused. Markets have been moving nicely but may be getting ready for more pronounced action, we'll see.
  • #10,724
  • Sep 29, 2009 7:43am Sep 29, 2009 7:43am
Morning everyone, GEFx,

At the moment I'm long Yen, and watching euro south.... trading lightly trying to gather some ammo for later, Consumer confidence #'s out in about 90 minutes.

Agree it's been quiet around here lately, people off doing their own thing, dancing alone, I guess.

regards
  • #10,725
  • Sep 29, 2009 8:39am Sep 29, 2009 8:39am
Quoting auxesis
Morning everyone, GEFx,

At the moment I'm long Yen, and watching euro south.... trading lightly trying to gather some ammo for later, Consumer confidence #'s out in about 90 minutes.

Agree it's been quiet around here lately, people off doing their own thing, dancing alone, I guess.

regards
Hi auxesis,
Agree with you about your approach of trading lightly. Confidence numbers in about 20 minutes, so will see if that helps move the market a little more. Good trading.
  • #10,726
  • Sep 29, 2009 8:53am Sep 29, 2009 8:53am
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis,
Agree with you about your approach of trading lightly. Confidence numbers in about 20 minutes, so will see if that helps move the market a little more. Good trading.
Squared up here going into the News, Euro's strength the last few minutes before this quick drop snookered me out of my Yen trade a few minutes prematurely it seems, lol.

Anyways grabbed some ammo for the fight later, good trades everyone.
  • #10,727
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:13am Sep 29, 2009 11:13am
Hi Friends,

I'm still watching the thread "Behind price orderflow" that I have mantioned some time ago.
At the moemnt there are at least three postings from the member "DayTrading", that are interesting to read. But build your own opinion ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=672

This may sound discouraging but there is no edge in orderflow.

I have been working with banks for most of my professional career - and that is for more than twenty years.

And 'having friends in a bank' won't help either - most of the time they don't know their a*se from their elbow - the amount of times two different trading departments from the same bank meet each other through the institutional broking firms (or throught the electronic communications network, nowadays) is countless. The proprietary desk is bid in €/$ while the options desk...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=679

Quote
With this being true, the players in this game can be abbrasive as they want. Also, to my knowledge at this point, the big players (banks) have the ability to see all substantial postions and open interest in the market. With this information at their disposal they can manipulate as much as they want.
Quote

This is why this type of trading interests me so. If you have a good source for knowing where certain orders are on the price ladder, you certainly could end up "mixing shoulders with the big guys."
Quote
If a solid source for existing order information exists and one could gain access to it, you would not have an edge at that point, but an ATM machiene.

More to come,

Scotty

This is not so.

I have worked with the best banking and proprietary software there is in the market. The latest obvious choice for bankers are ECN's - but not all use them. The 'ladder' does exist but unlike level II data in the stock market, there are no names on the FX ladder since the markets participation is anonymous, which means your own electronic contribution as a bank (JP Morgan, DB, UBS, Barclays to name just a few of the around 50 strong base contributors of the ECN community) shows up amongst other orders which have been entered electronically by market makers and position takers - you cannot distinct between them in the first place.

The next point is that retail orders come into the ECN as a bulk, and by the same token cannot be identified as 'retail' stop orders. Further orders include 'time slice' order types that feed chunks into the system on a periodic predetermined intervall for the purpose of not moving the market in one direction with a large order. Iceberg order are also part of the ladder by which a contributor hides the total extend of an order to the system, because showing would set of the automatic withdrawal of the imminent counter-orders and drive the price against the desired direction.

Most of this takes place in an automated fashion and unlike assumed in the thread where the so called big dogs sit in front of a screen looking where a bunch of inconsequential retail traders may have placed a miniscule stop order here and there.

Algorithms take care of a lot of spikes caused by 'liquidity-seeking' programs inside the ECN - all this happens on a speed scale which the physical trader is incapable of.

Then there are the corporate orders coming from actual real business interests like Siemens is building a new nuclear power station or funding a dam somewhere - these transactions come into the market each and every day from leftfield without warning and they come in size.

Rest assured, people everywhere cook with water - the only real difference is speed and size of execution that separates the institutional from the retail crowd - and very often a bunch of excellent programmers who work on short-term solutions - otherwise its trading based on trends, high's, low's and S&R as usual.

regards
daytrading


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=681

Pj,

How hedge funds operate in the FX market depends strongly on their employed strategies. There are pure FX oriented funds but they are not the majority.

Reasons for a hedge fund to have a position (or interest) in the cash FX market (or in the FX futures market) can be manifold.

For example, when I used to work in the derivatives industry from 1993 until 2000, interest rate products such as IR-swaps and IR-options depending on the currency the contracts were traded in, had 'cash-settlement' as an expiry option - that meant that the counterparts had to settle the contract via the cash FX market. The way it worked was on the day, they would simply check the underlying fx pair's current price and placed the equivalent of sometimes huge ($500M or more) FX orders - just like that.

Other reasons for funds to be in the FX market are of course their own currency trading strategies, or currency risk resulting from other correlated exposure which they need to take care of on a daily basis.

There are as many different participants as there are reasons to enter into a FX transaction - its impossible to keep track of them at any time, except when time stands almost still: when interest rate decisions are to be released or when situations arise such as the unwinding of the carry trade a while back. Those exposures in the FX market are reported at the Bank for international settlements in Switzerland (BIS). Or the TIC data gives clues about where capital is flowing from and to. That again is not specific as to individual groups but whole industries and counties.

Unlike after Bretton Woods where currency bands were fixed and tight, they now move in much larger ranges - still ranges though. If they deviate too much, CB's step in but that is something FTI in his thread about 'technical analysis fallacy' explains much better than I could.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

That is all I can do for you now - time is money and money is time.

regards
daytrading

  • #10,728
  • Sep 29, 2009 11:42am Sep 29, 2009 11:42am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

I'm still watching the thread "Behind price orderflow" that I have mantioned some time ago.
nice,
seems the guy has roughly equivalent experience to fti sir ...

k , squaring out ,
have a nice day everyone ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,729
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:05pm Sep 29, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

I'm still watching the thread "Behind price orderflow" that I have mantioned some time ago.
At the moemnt there are at least three postings from the member "DayTrading", that are interesting to read. But build your own opinion ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=672 [indent]This may sound discouraging but there is no edge in orderflow.

I have been working with banks for most of my professional career - and that is for more than twenty years.

[i]And 'having friends in...
Hi MaMood, thanks for bringing that up to attention, it was good info.

I actually read the first 200 plus pages again (3rd time I think) over the weekend, fascinating, still learned new things and is reminded of some that I forgot too. I believe the style is till poorly understood, wished fti can be back man....I observed also from other reader's perspective, ie Lusan, mashes and Leighsww etc. Interesting....

All the best for the rest of the week !!

regards

mark
  • #10,730
  • Edited 1:33pm Sep 29, 2009 1:16pm | Edited 1:33pm
Mamood,

Here's the key in your quoted post "Rest assured, people everywhere cook with water - the only real difference is speed and size of execution that separates the institutional from the retail crowd - and very often a bunch of excellent programmers who work on short-term solutions - otherwise its trading based on trends, high's, low's and S&R as usual."

I thought the Order flow thread came to the conclusion long time ago, it's impossible to see the order books, hence a mute point. I believe even FTI alluded to the Banks putting up China Walls to prevent disclosure of positions.

Tis' better to interpret the charts, when money is flowing volatility/separation from the hourly average occurs, legs stretch. Consolidation tells another, as does false moves/springs when they happen.

regards,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2482 @green david text

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=456
  • #10,731
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:32pm Sep 29, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting auxesis
Mamood,

Here's the key in your quoted post "Rest assured, people everywhere cook with water - the only real difference is speed and size of execution that separates the institutional from the retail crowd - and very often a bunch of excellent programmers who work on short-term solutions - otherwise its trading based on trends, high's, low's and S&R as usual."

I thought the Order flow thread came to the conclusion long time ago, it's impossible to see the order books, hence a mute point....
Totally agree with you. I guess such topics still arouse interest is because many still think those "insiders" have certain "secrets" and that they have the key to the cash. When really there is none or minimal differences, when your brokers advertise a "level playing field", I think they meant it.
  • #10,732
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:41pm Sep 29, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Totally agree with you. I guess such topics still arouse interest is because many still think those "insiders" have certain "secrets" and that they have the key to the cash. When really there is none or minimal differences, when your brokers advertise a "level playing field", I think they meant it.
The difference between the banks and your broker being, unless your big enough to trade with the big boys bank direct you must trade through your broker, it's his market you trade, while the limits of the playing field are determined by the market in whole, spot short term fluctuations inside those limits are not out of the question, the order flow thread seeks to unveil what they can not obtain when they need to focus on the actual market (Brokers bid/ask) they are in.

The Broker (comparing his book in relation to the field) has the definite advantage if you let him.
  • #10,733
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:47pm Sep 29, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting auxesis
Mamood,

Here's the key in your quoted post "Rest assured, people everywhere cook with water - the only real difference is speed and size of execution that separates the institutional from the retail crowd - and very often a bunch of excellent programmers who work on short-term solutions - otherwise its trading based on trends, high's, low's and S&R as usual."

I thought the Order flow thread came to the conclusion long time ago, it's impossible to see the order books, hence a mute point. I believe even FTI alluded to the Banks...
Hi Auxesis,

I completely agree with you: There is absolute nothing new in the thread, that I have mentioned above. And I was tempted several times to give them a hint to some posts in fti's teachings. But I found it interesting to see, how they have been circling around the gist of the matter. And I'm always very satisfied, that there are no new suprising findings out there :-)

I'm very glad and grateful, that fti his given us all this informations and insights in his teachings without any mystic and secretiveness drivel.

At least DayTrading has given a hint to fti's thread ...

Regards,
MaMood
  • #10,734
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:53pm Sep 29, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Auxesis,

I completely agree with you: There is absolute nothing new in the thread, that I have mentioned above. And I was tempted several times to give them a hint to some posts in fti's teachings. But I found it interesting to see, how they have been circling around the gist of the matter. And I'm always very satisfied, that there are no new suprising findings out there :-)

I'm very glad and grateful, that fti his given us all this informations and insights in his teachings without any mystic and secretiveness drivel.

At least DayTrading...
Sad to say, most of the FF community view this thread as a cult. The majority come here looking for the quick answer, quick EA or indicator that leads to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Like everything in life the secrets hidden in this thread, come out through much searching and study.

Yon can link back to this thread until the cow comes home, almost everyone that comes to FF looks in on this thread, but few stay. I have found this to be true on other forums as well. Remember the first post FTI made on this thread, listing the main ingredients for sucess. #2 was YOU. Most traders will look everywhere except in the mirror for answers.

fwiw,
  • #10,735
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:04pm Sep 29, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting auxesis
The difference between the banks and your broker being, unless your big enough to trade with the big boys bank direct you must trade through your broker, it's his market you trade, while the limits of the playing field are determined by the market in whole, spot short term fluctuations inside those limits are not out of the question, the order flow thread seeks to unveil what they can not obtain when they need to focus on the actual market (Brokers bid/ask) they are in.

The Broker (comparing his book in relation to the field) has the definite advantage...
Thanks for the explanation. Even in the stock market where you can see the price queue, do not necessary mean having an edge. Skillful reading of market form is still the key. I personally know a institutional dealer who has all the information available but consistently lost money.
  • #10,736
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:12pm Sep 29, 2009 2:12pm
The thing about TAF thread is that its easy to get sidetracked into other subjects. The most obvious lesson that can be drawn out of his teachings is the "skew". Other subjects like "dancing", psychology etc needs careful study to really unveil what he is trying to say. Take a look at earlier students whom fti claim to have deviated from his methods, you can get a clearer picture.
  • #10,737
  • Edited 2:48pm Sep 29, 2009 2:19pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting auxesis
Yon can link back to this thread until the cow comes home, almost everyone that comes to FF looks in on this thread, but few stay. I have found this to be true on other forums as well. Remember the first post FTI made on this thread, listing the main ingredients for sucess. #2 was YOU. Most traders will look everywhere except in the mirror for answers.
i think many who look around in this thread, look in the mirror and see it is not for their personality or does not fit with their working hours.

last two weeks i was free so i had a couple fulltime days to trade. i more and more get the feeling this proffesional way of trading needs fulltime dedication. sometimes i feel much doubt because i am very motivated and cannot see a way to modify fti teachings to a more scalping way, to deal with my lack of time.

even if i will not find a way to use FTI's MO and MM, his mindset teaching will be valuable allways and not alone for trading.

edit:
Quoting aiyahmarklah
The thing about TAF thread is that its easy to get sidetracked into other subjects. The most obvious lesson that can be drawn out of his teachings is the "skew". Other subjects like "dancing", psychology etc needs careful study to really unveil what he is trying to say. Take a look at earlier students whom fti claim to have deviated from his methods, you can get a clearer picture.
i think deviation from his method is a way, not to accept that after many hours of carefull study of fti's teachings, i have to give up. i have accepted i cannot trade the way teached so generously. i have not accepted that i cannot use skew and other subjects. .... i hope to practice this way and one day trade fulltime.

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,738
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:22pm Sep 29, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
The thing about TAF thread is that its easy to get sidetracked into other subjects. The most obvious lesson that can be drawn out of his teachings is the "skew". Other subjects like "dancing", psychology etc needs careful study to really unveil what he is trying to say. Take a look at earlier students whom fti claim to have deviated from his methods, you can get a clearer picture.
Mark, I know very well what you are talking about.
For me the "deviations" have been some painful experiences ...


CU,
MaMood
  • #10,739
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:40pm Sep 29, 2009 2:40pm
Hi MaMood, those experiences only make you stronger right ?

Dear j-pax, I agree, the hours required are long and can mean many sleepless nights. I feel the same way about needing full time effort to learn, I took a drastic step and left my job to learn this stuff full time before returning to my career. I intended it to be a year, thing is, today I am entering into the 3rd year trading "fulltime", don't think I will be looking back anymore. My friends still think I am crazy.....


Regards
  • #10,740
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:48pm Sep 29, 2009 2:48pm
Anyone noticed this about fti in his postings during live trading hours ?

The nature of the strategy can require a lot of time and attention, however, even during those "boring periods" he is still very agressive , no action taken but I can sense his agression, ever ready to pounce what opportunity arise. Whereas for me, the waiting tend to take my edge away, I am sure many others too, especially those who flip a lot.

Don't really know how to put it into words, but hope its understandable.


mARK
6 traders viewing now