A question about an idea I developed

Hi,

I am trying a new idea of mine for few days on my demo account and it works perfectly. I would like to here what you think:

After the US session closes (calming down) i open about 20 trades (that's right - you heard well) one of each pair - continuing the trend of the pair.
I place a t.p of 15 pips. no stop loss.
than I seet back and see one trade after the other closes, each adding 15 pips to my (demo) account.
after some time - 5 to 7 trades remain with a loss or small profit.
I do a quick math (using excel is good) - if I am in good profit - I close the remaining trades and go to sleep happy. if not - I wait some more.
It had never dissapointed me yet, but I'm afraid to try it for real
What do you think ?

Never been disappointed in a few days of trading...hmmm... you've got something to look forward to then.

You don't mention time frame or which pairs, so I can't comment on your trades except that trend following has potential.

Only advice I can offer at this point is stick with the demo trading for a while longer...and remember, the trend is your friend until the end.

Phil

Hello Phil,

many thanks for your reply.
The main idea is spreading the risk among as many pairs as possible.
Ilook at 4h 1h and 30m to confirm the major trend and take the trade.
some of the pairs will behave bad - but most of them will keep on going the way they are used to - this will compensate for the loss - and more.

Try it yourself - it's fun. i only need some help in refining the system - What t.p shell I use - when is the best times for that strategy ? - is it a good idea to put stop loss - and where ?
Just thaught someone out there has tried it before and I'm looking for good advice.
I will not trade it in my real account before I'm absolutely confident it will give results in the long run.
Thanks again,

Arik.

Still a rookie myself but would like to comment.

Even though you are spreading risk over a lot of currency pairs there is a lot of correlation between the pairs. If there is a strong movement in the USD you might suffer a big loss. I think you really need an exit strategy for when the trades go against you. Not closing trades while you are not in profit sounds like a dangerous strategy to me.

I think the best thing to do now is to backtest and live future test your system, maybe try to reduce the number of pairs for your backtests, if it works on 20 it should work on 5 too?

Also you may want to look at trailing stops for profit taking or combine this method with your fixed profit amount.

Let me lay it out for you.

First off if your afraid to try it live it may be because
a) you have really done very little testing, both current and back and therefore do not trust the model
b) the idea of trading without a stop loss on 20 pairs while aiming for 15 pips is sort of sending you a chime
c) your quick maths just may not be accurate enough for you
d) you may already understand (point 2) that a quick move against you on most pairs (or not) will lead you to make an uncomfortable decision ' to close or not to close'.

Just because you have determined short term (or even long term) direction the fact remains that the setup is poor. You are risking infinite risk for miniscule reward on up to 20 crosses. If you risk 1% per pair then that in itself is up to 20% per trade, and that would be based on having some measure to cancel the trade.

I would go back to the drawing board and scrap the idea until something more sound is implemented. Once you can see yourself trading it live, then and only then will you be on the right track.

Razor

That is sooo not going to work on the long run....

Can I be your broker? I'll give you 3 pip spreads on everything.

it's a high risk and low probability approach. Have you back tested it for different pairs and time frames? but it's good you have something to develop there