Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading) | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What is the Differences between Fibonacci Fan and Fibonacci Arcs 15 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Synergy Method For Scalpers and Scalpers Hourly Range Calculator (Based on TSR) 22 replies

what's Fibonacci method trading? 7 replies

"Bagovino Method" VS "Cornflower Hourly System" 16 replies

Attachments: Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)
Exit Attachments

Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #281
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:30am Sep 15, 2009 4:30am
On the Daily chart (attached), as discussed yesterday, price is in a strong down trend: price pattern is currently forming lower highs and lower lows. However, from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have an opportunity to temporarily support the dollar against the yen: the potential support area - the lower edge of the downward channel - that was identified yesterday, proved to be strong enough to, at least, halt price's downward movement for more than 24 hours. In addition, Friday's low, which we also discussed yesterday, couldn't be breached. Now, by the end of yesterday, a reversal candle formation - a quasi inside candle - appeared at the lower edge of the downward channel; and then, price recently broke above the previous day high. These current price actions are signaling the opportunity, from a day-trade perspective, to go Long in a possible upward price retracement that, though might be short-lived, has the potential of traveling further north toward the upper edge of the downward channel. This upper edge might likely turn out to be a strong resistance area as it creates a resistance-confluence with a previous support level - the most recent Weekly swing low @ 91.71 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line on the Daily chart), which should now act as a very strong resistance level. I believe it's safe to seek a Long trade set-up based on our H4 and Hourly charts parameters. But, let's not forget we're in a major down-trend.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 91.12 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 90.19 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact. But, again, let's not forget we're in a major down-trend.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #282
  • Edited 4:55am Sep 16, 2009 4:19am | Edited 4:55am
On the Weekly chart (attached), we could see that price is in a strong uptrend; however, we are at a critical resistance area: a confluence of fib. 61.8% retracement and the most recent Monthly chart swing high @ 1.4719 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line on the Weekly chart) tells us price might currently be under intense resistance pressure.

On the Daily chart (attached), we have a clearer view of the proximity of price to the critical resistance level @ 1.4719 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Weekly chart. In addition, price is at the upper edge of an upward channel - another sign showing the possibility of resistance pressure. However, the bulls are yet to show signs that they are buckling under any resistance pressure as the previous day candle closed as a bullish candle, and price just broke above the previous day high. Personally, until the bulls show sign of weakness, I'll keep believing they are in control. Nevertheless, it would be wise not to disregard the resistance-confluence. Again, today might be another holiday for conservative traders. For those of us that might want to give the bulls benefit of the doubt, let's be very cautious.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4651 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4560 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #283
  • Edited 8:33am Sep 17, 2009 5:30am | Edited 8:33am
On the Daily chart (attached), the story remains pretty the same as yesterday's: though the bulls keep showing their determination, price is still hovering around the critical resistance area (that we discussed yesterday): a confluence of Weekly fib. 61.8% retracement and the most recent Monthly chart swing high @ 1.4719 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line on the Daily chart). Price also seems resolute on breaking decisively above the upward channel: we would confirm that at the end of today, based on today's candle close. Really, there's no reason to be thinking Short now - though the steep bulls' move seems set for imminent correction. The point is no one can predict precisely when the correction would happen. In all, all that we currently know is that the bulls are still in control. Let's keep on "riding" the bulls with caution.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has stayed above the most recent swing high @ 1.4651 (that we've highlighted using the blue broken line), which we've identified since yesterday. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4640 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact. However, to buttress our cautious position, we have a very obvious waving negative MACD Divergence. Although, it's not yet a valid divergence, it signals the possibility of an imminent price retracement downward. Let's keep all these warning signs in mind as we look for our Long positions.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - H4 170909.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached Image
  • #284
  • Edited 4:43am Sep 18, 2009 4:13am | Edited 4:43am
On the Daily chart (attached), with the support of the Monthly and Weekly charts, the GBPUSD seems to have resumed its bearish move. Price is currently in a symmetrical triangle formation, and on its way toward the lower edge of the triangle formation; we would assume price has got enough room to move further downward. Also buttressing our downward bias is the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6401 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) that price recently broke below. A major support level - a previous Daily swing low @ 1.6112 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which might likely form a support-confluence with the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle formation, is the next level where we expect the bears to be challenged. Hence, from a day-trade perspective, I believe the coast is clear enough to seek Short trades - with the support of the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6433 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6567 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it - in the absence of any new and lower swing high - our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels - to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today's down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #285
  • Sep 21, 2009 4:02am Sep 21, 2009 4:02am
On the Daily chart (attached), we could observe that price has broken above the downward channel, as well as a critical resistance level - the most recent Weekly swing low @ 91.71 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line on the Daily chart). Although, price is yet to close above the 91.71 resistance level (we would only be able to ascertain that after the close of today’s candle), its decisive break above the level suggests a continuation of the bullish correction in a strong downtrend. The next resistance level where price upward correction has a high probability of being halted is @ 93.03 - the fib. 38.2% retracement level, which, combined with a previous Daily swing low @ 93.07 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), has formed a resistance-confluence. From a day-trade perspective, we seem to have a good opportunity of going Long on the USDJPY as price is still about a 100 pips from the resistance-confluence we just identified

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 91.60 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 91.01 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY - Daily 210909.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
  • #286
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:36am Sep 21, 2009 6:36am
With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Long trade setup on the USDCHF pair.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0370. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0329 and 1.0288 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0288 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0392 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0370 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50.8% ret. @ 1.0329
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0319;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0306.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0311, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 78.6% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0286; primary Profit target @ 1.0390 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pair.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF - 15min 210909.gif Size: 32 KB
Attached Image
  • #287
  • Sep 22, 2009 3:51am Sep 22, 2009 3:51am
On the Daily chart (attached), we keep experiencing an unrelenting bulls’ rush. Last week, we observed a critical resistance area: a confluence of Weekly fib. 61.8% retracement, and the most recent Monthly chart swing high @ 1.4719 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line on the Daily chart). As anticipated, the 1.4719 resistance-confluence made its impact felt as it halted the bulls’ move for two trading days. However, at the beginning of today, the bulls gave an indication that they were determined to continue their dominance as price broke above the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4766 (not highlighted to avoid cluttered chart). Personally, the current rally has been a steep one, and, consequently, a major retracement – as we’ve been discussing since last week – might be imminent. However, what we currently know is that the bulls aren’t showing signs of weakness. From a day-trade perspective, let’s keep seeking Long trade setups until the bears give us signs that they are ready to challenge the bulls.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4735 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4610 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
Pls NOTE: The most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4766, which we discussed on the Daily chart, is highlighted on the H4 chart with the upper blue broken line.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #288
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:31am Sep 23, 2009 3:31am
On the Daily chart (attached), again, earlier today we experienced another bullish price action: price-break above the previous day’s high. Much earlier, the previous day’s candle closed above the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4766 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). These signs are confirming that the bulls are probably ready to push further. However, as mentioned yesterday: “personally, the current rally has been a steep one, and, consequently, a major retracement – as we’ve been discussing since last week – might be imminent.” But again, what we currently know is that the bulls are yet to show signs of weakness – at least on the Daily chart; hence, from a day-trade perspective, let’s keep seeking Long trade setups until price action indicates otherwise.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4820 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, a couple of price actions are indicating an imminent downward price retracement in a very strong uptrend: the first price action is the reversal candle formation (a hammer or inside candle – depending on the way we see it as individuals) right on the most recent swing high @ 1.4820; a sign that the bulls are really struggling to maintain their hold. The second warning signal is a waving negative MACD Divergence (highlighted using the red lines on both panes of the chart), which, although yet to be a valid divergence, is a relatively good sign that the bears are prepared to take over – even if just temporarily. In all, as mentioned on the Daily chart, the bulls are still in charge, BUT please, let’s be mindful of the warning signs.
The green horizontal line @ 1.4610 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - H4 230909.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached Image
  • #289
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:46am Sep 24, 2009 5:46am
On the Daily chart (attached) – in agreement with the Weekly and Monthly charts – the bears are currently showing signs of recovery as price reversed on its way toward the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle to retest the triangle’s lower edge. However, the triangle’s lower edge – forming a support-confluence with the Daily chart most recent swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) – remains a critical level that the bears must breach decisively to prove their strength. Early price action today shows price has travelled a considerable range, and there’s the possibility we would experience relatively low activity afterward; hence we might not be having an opportunity for a suitable setup for today. However, high or low activity wouldn’t be a determining factor regarding our bias. While, our bias – with the support of higher time frame charts – remains bearish, price is currently around the support-confluence that we discussed earlier, consequently, an upward retracement is very possible

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6328 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That price action automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. Again, let’s be very conscious of the fact that price is around a support-confluence. The white horizontal line @ 1.6468 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #290
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:44am Sep 25, 2009 4:44am
On the Daily chart (attached), much quicker than anticipated, the bears are recovering lost ground. Yesterday, we discussed that the GBPUSD Daily chart – in agreement with the Weekly and Monthly charts – supported the idea that the bears were showing signs of recovery as price reversed on its way toward the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle to retest the triangle’s lower edge; and that the triangle’s lower edge – forming a support-confluence with the Daily chart most recent swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – remained a critical level that the bears must breach decisively to prove their strength.
Before the close of yesterday’s candle, the bears did not just breach the support-confluence, they broke below it decisively with over 350-pip move. Now, all we could expect – based on these recent price actions – is further downward price movement for, probably, a protracted period of time. Our bias is simply bearish. However, price is currently at another critical support level – a previous Daily and Weekly charts swing low @ 1.5982 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line); while our bias is bearish, let’s keep this level in mind as we seek our Short trade setups – with the support of the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), price – since yesterday – had broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6328 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6468 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
Please NOTE that the strength of the critical support level @ 1.5982 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is more visible on the H4 chart as we already have a reversal candle formation (railway tracks) around the level. Let’s expect an upward price retracement, which, possibly, would aid a Short trade setup on the Hourly chart.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #291
  • Sep 25, 2009 6:13am Sep 25, 2009 6:13am
With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Short trade setup on the USDJPY pair.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 89.95. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 90.38 and 90.81 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 90.81 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 89.72 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 89.95 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 90.48;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 90.63.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing low @ 90.54, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 61.8% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 90.83; primary Profit target @ 89.72 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Please keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
Attached Images
  • #292
  • Sep 28, 2009 5:28am Sep 28, 2009 5:28am
On the Daily chart (attached), toward the end of last week, the bulls finally succumbed to strong resistance levels. One of the resistance levels is the upward channel: we would observe that, although price seemed to have initially broken above the upward channel, it could not sustain its upward surge, and consequently, a strong reversal candle formation (railway tracks) was formed at the close of last week Wednesday’s candle. Currently, we have a sign that price has probably resolved to have a downward retracement: the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4610 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) has been broken downward. We expect price to continue its downward retracement toward the lower edge of the channel; however let’s keep in mind that there are a couple of support levels – previous Daily swing highs – that the bears might have to break through to reach the channel’s lower edge. In all, from a day-trade perspective, with the support of the H4 chart, our bias is to seek Short trade setups on the Hourly chart

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4622 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. We would also observe that price is currently forming lower highs and lower lows: another good formation confirming the bears’ control. The white horizontal line @ 1.4723 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Please NOTE: We currently have an Hourly Short trade setup with a nice resistance-confluence around the fib 50% ret. @ 1.4641 (Primary profit target @ 1.4523; Initial SL @ 1.4721). If this level is suitable for you – in terms of reward:risk, don’t hesitate to take the trade. Please manage your trade properly: don’t risk too much, scale out your profits and adjust your stop loss when necessary.
Attached Images
  • #293
  • Sep 29, 2009 3:38am Sep 29, 2009 3:38am
On the Daily chart (attached), price currently seems to be in an upward retracement – in a strong downtrend: we could observe a number of reversal candle formations at the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel. Also, yesterday’s candle closed as a bullish candle. Consequently, current price action supports our bullish bias. We expect price to continue its upward retracement toward the upper edge of the downward channel. However, from a day-trade perspective, we would prefer to see price break above yesterday’s high @ 1.0374 before we are fully convinced to seek a Long trade setup.

On the H4 chart (attached), we currently have a higher high and higher low formation: a good sign supporting a bullish bias. However, price is yet to break above the most recent swing high – also yesterday’s high – @ 1.0374 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). The 1.0374 level, from a day-trade perspective, is a critical resistance level that we would prefer to see broken upward before we seek Long trade setups on the Hourly chart. The green horizontal line @ 1.0276 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #294
  • Sep 29, 2009 6:03am Sep 29, 2009 6:03am
Quoting Tunji
[font=Arial]On the Daily chart (attached), price currently seems to be in an upward retracement – in a strong downtrend: we could observe a number of reversal candle formations at the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel. Also, yesterday’s candle closed as a bullish candle. Consequently, current price action supports our bullish bias. We expect price to continue its upward retracement toward the upper edge of the downward channel. However, from a day-trade perspective, we would prefer to see price break above yesterday’s high @ 1.0374...

Hello Tunji

Quite a while..just to say well done and keep the good work going....

"Oluwa a fi ere si ise wa l'oruko Jesu...Amin"
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #295
  • Sep 29, 2009 6:49am Sep 29, 2009 6:49am
Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0403. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0357 and 1.0311 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0311 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0428 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0403 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0346;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0331.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0347, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would prefer the 61.8% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0309; primary Profit target @ 1.0426 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF - 15min 290909.gif Size: 43 KB
Attached Image
  • #296
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:30pm Sep 29, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting D liberators
Hello Tunji

Quite a while..just to say well done and keep the good work going....

"Oluwa a fi ere si ise wa l'oruko Jesu...Amin"
Thanks a lot D liberators; and I say a big amen to your prayer.
  • #297
  • Edited 7:38am Sep 30, 2009 6:54am | Edited 7:38am
On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe that the GBPUSD is in a downtrend; however, from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have an opportunity to Long the pair: Yesterday, price completed a reversal candle pattern at the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel, and earlier today, price broke above the previous day high @ 1.5988. These signs suggest we are in a bullish retracement in a longer term downtrend. We have a critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). The 1.6132 level might halt the bullish retracement. Another resistance area that is currently some pips above the 1.6132 level is a downward trend-line (red solid line). These resistance areas are very critical, especially because we are in downtrend – supported by higher time frame charts. Again, from a day-trade perspective, we could still go with the bulls, but with extreme caution when managing our trades.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.5988 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.5823 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
Please NOTE: Let’s keep in mind that we are in a longer term downtrend. The critical resistance levels that we discussed on the Daily chart are shown on the H4 chart to have a clearer observation regarding their proximity to price action: we’re about 60 pips to the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and still quite a distance from the downward trend-line. We would prefer to see price break above the 1.6132 level, to be more convinced of enough room for further bullish retracement toward the downward trend-line.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #298
  • Edited 3:44am Oct 1, 2009 3:32am | Edited 3:44am
On the Daily chart (attached), price is currently having a bullish retracement in a downtrend. We anticipate that price would travel upward toward the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel before any major resistance. The strength of the channel’s upper edge is buttressed by a cluster of old support levels (around 1.0550) – that we expect to now act as a critical resistance area – which might be forming a resistance-confluence with the upper edge. However, from a day-trade perspective, the previous day’s high @ 1.0449 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) might pose a threat to further upward price move, hence, it would be safer for us to see price break above the 1.0449 level before seeking Long trade setups on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), we would observe that price is in a bullish channel formation. There are a couple of previous swing highs that are acting as resistance levels within the channel; hence, to have a clearer coast for our Long trades, we would prefer to see price break above the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel, which would be confirmed by price break above the most recent swing high – also the previous day’s high – @ 1.0449 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line).
The green horizontal line @ 1.0336 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #299
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:47am Oct 2, 2009 3:47am
Pls NOTE: Today is another first Friday, hence we expect the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report to have its impact on the general behavior of the markets. Again, as I’ve always said, today – as with most first Fridays of every month – is one particular day that trending method/pattern traders should be wary of trading most. Based on personal experience, early market hours are usually dull, afterward, usually around the news release, we have extreme volatility, which disrupts any recognizable chart patterns; hence, the entire trading day becomes virtually un-tradable.
While I’ll go ahead to give my personal analysis on the EURUSD pair, please, let’s bear in mind that, regardless of any technical analyses, NFP usually rules today.

On the Daily chart above, since price broke below the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4610 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), our bias has turned bearish. Hence we expect price to travel further south toward the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel, where, currently, we also have a critical support level – a previous Daily swing high @ 1.4405 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4574 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. We would observe that price is also within a bearish channel on the H4 chart, and the coast seems quite clear for price to continue its southward trip toward the lower edge of the bearish or downward channel, which, coincidentally, also currently aligns with the 1.4405 support level (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4672 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #300
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:42am Oct 2, 2009 9:42am
Hi Tunji, nice pic of work. I am following yr post and hope I can learn something from you. I am using Fibo as one of my method to trade too. However, I do not have much time as I need to work in the day. I am using 4 hr TF. Any suggestion for me? Thanks
0 traders viewing now