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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #200,521
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:14pm Sep 28, 2009 8:14pm
This pair is due for a bounce, massive hammer on the daily chart that just pierced the 50% fibo (from the low back in January to the August high) and now looks to be bouncing away. Trend clearly down though. May look to short somewhere between the 38% and 50% fibo from its most recent run down which would be somewhere between 143.75 and 145.
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  • #200,522
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:26pm Sep 28, 2009 8:26pm
Quoting geribosi
Hi Malc,

What's your forecast for the days to come on this pair?

Thanks
up for now into 143.80 / 145 or 146.3

IF 146.3 is taken out and we close above that on the weekly then that is going to be a long wick on the weekly and 150 may be taken out

I was surprised to see the ease at which the s &p was bought today when we saw that bad housing news etc last week ....we shot up on nothing other than mergers and acquisitions....

on the daily we are in a down trend as long as price remains under 146.30 also ...that is utl.


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  • #200,523
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:46pm Sep 28, 2009 8:46pm
Did you go short at 143.13?
Quoting cvcamper
Anyone else have a huge ass pin bar on daily for GBP/JPY break is at 143.13
  • #200,524
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:37pm Sep 28, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting igmak
Reason for short: 143 area was 1hr 50ema with bearish divergence.
I do trade my own charts. SL @ BE
PA is bouncing around 1hr 50ema. IMO, GJ has 1hr bearish divergence should break bear flag soon.
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Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #200,525
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:37pm Sep 28, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I trade 15 min chart when I get channel I switch to 5 min
Much appreciated
  • #200,526
  • Sep 28, 2009 9:58pm Sep 28, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
up for now into 143.80 / 145 or 146.3

IF 146.3 is taken out and we close above that on the weekly then that is going to be a long wick on the weekly and 150 may be taken out

I was surprised to see the ease at which the s &p was bought today when we saw that bad housing news etc last week ....we shot up on nothing other than mergers and acquisitions....

on the daily we are in a down trend as long as price remains under 146.30 also ...that is utl.


Attachment
Thanks - I agree - 146 is the level to watch
  • #200,527
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:08pm Sep 28, 2009 10:08pm
[quote=igmak;3100538]PA is bouncing around 1hr 50ema. IMO, GJ has 1hr bearish divergence should break bear flag soon.[/quote

your chart is talking to u but u cannot see..
let me show u what is hidden maybe we can learn from each other, there is no divergence bar on 1hr gj..4hrs gj is set for 143.70-145 max 146 and ur chart shows it all in this confluence.
i dont know how u set the fibo levels cus the swing low should be yesterday low...
patience is the virtual...cheers see ya europe back to sleep.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #200,528
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:27pm Sep 28, 2009 10:27pm
sitting here pondering why the SSE is negative on such a positive day
  • #200,529
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:27pm Sep 28, 2009 10:27pm
I'm going after Viper.

Quoting malcolmb14
up for now into 143.80 / 145 or 146.3

IF 146.3 is taken out and we close above that on the weekly then that is going to be a long wick on the weekly and 150 may be taken out

I was surprised to see the ease at which the s &p was bought today when we saw that bad housing news etc last week ....we shot up on nothing other than mergers and acquisitions....

on the daily we are in a down trend as long as price remains under 146.30 also ...that is utl.


Attachment
  • #200,530
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:28pm Sep 28, 2009 10:28pm
Okay, I see the 4hr Gann crossed over this candle, and QQE already in play, so I'm moving on up too.
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #200,531
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:33pm Sep 28, 2009 11:33pm
Yesterday was a good entry for GBPJPY USDJPY AND AUDJPY. This continue to BULLISH in the short term since the CPI just come out with further disappointing.

The Japanese economy, along with the rest of the world, is getting weaker; the Japanese stock market is falling; exports are dropping; and the Bank of Japan warned this week Japan's economy probably will contract this year.

There is talk in Japanese banking circles that the Prime Minister of Japan may intervene to curb the rise of the yen. While this move is not imminent, it just a talk without an action.

The Reason for the YEN to pull back today due to consumer price index figure come out.

The Japanese expect too raise rate soon enough before anyone else. That mean the GBP AND USD could further sell off against the Yen.
  • #200,532
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:58pm Sep 28, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting aa.eeiimm
Yesterday was a good entry for GBPJPY USDJPY AND AUDJPY. This continue to BULLISH in the short term since the CPI just come out with further disappointing.

The Japanese economy, along with the rest of the world, is getting weaker; the Japanese stock market is falling; exports are dropping; and the Bank of Japan warned this week Japan's economy probably will contract this year.
.............................................
The Japanese expect too raise rate soon enough before anyone else. That mean the GBP AND USD could further sell off against...
Why would the Japanese raise rates sooner than FED, ECB ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #200,533
  • Sep 29, 2009 12:14am Sep 29, 2009 12:14am
Quoting DMA Trader
Why would the Japanese raise rates sooner than FED, ECB ?
More importantly, why would they raise rates at all at this point after decade or more of of 0%?

I mean, what changed since the last BoJ meeting that would make them reverse a 10+ year old monetary policy?
  • #200,534
  • Sep 29, 2009 12:39am Sep 29, 2009 12:39am
Quoting sinner-
More importantly, why would they raise rates at all at this point after decade or more of of 0%?

I mean, what changed since the last BoJ meeting that would make them reverse a 10+ year old monetary policy?
a change of government perhaps? although i am doubtful of any change in the monetary policy anyway, and that's not just for the BoJ but also the BoE, Fed and ECB
  • #200,535
  • Sep 29, 2009 12:44am Sep 29, 2009 12:44am
Quoting Eulogy
a change of government perhaps? although i am doubtful of any change in the monetary policy anyway, and that's not just for the BoJ but also the BoE, Fed and ECB
New government has already declared they will not meddle in BoJ affairs:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...5810RJ20090902

Quote
"The incoming government and the central bank got off to a smooth start," Kohei Otsuka told Reuters in an interview, one day after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa met with senior Democratic Party lawmakers.

"We won't meddle in the BOJ's policy and market operations including government bond buying," he said, adding that he appreciates the central bank's efforts to keep interest rates above zero to keep the market functioning normally.

Otsuka, 49, worked for the BOJ for 17 years until 2000, serving in sections including the policy board's secretariat,...
  • #200,536
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:09am Sep 29, 2009 1:09am
Quoting sinner-
New government has already declared they will not meddle in BoJ affairs:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...5810RJ20090902
now now sinner, do you really think that they cannot flip flop on their past announcements? Just recently, finance minister Fujii said "We will not intervene on the yen"

then today he said:

"Oops, did i say that just a few days ago. I actually meant, we won't intervene on the yen, trust me, but we will intervene whenever i feel like it"

hmmm. not much different from the baldy twins Benny and Pauly:

May 2008 - "The subprime problem is largely contained"
Sep 2008 - "Ahhhhhh f$@#!!!!!"

  • #200,537
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:18am Sep 29, 2009 1:18am
Not really denying that, but I just don't feel they will reverse their free money policy (separate from OTC market operations) any time soon, which is all I am really arguing.
  • #200,538
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:37am Sep 29, 2009 1:37am
Quoting sinner-
Not really denying that, but I just don't feel they will reverse their free money policy (separate from OTC market operations) any time soon, which is all I am really arguing.
Personally, i don't think anyone's in a hurry to reverse low interest environment. Everyone's on such shaky ground that the only thing they can do is talk tough and do $hit-all.

Meanwhile today's rally has really caught me off guard. Just a couple of M&A activity between some midsized tech and pharma stocks and up she goes - doesn't look right.
  • #200,539
  • Sep 29, 2009 1:42am Sep 29, 2009 1:42am
patience....
  • #200,540
  • Sep 29, 2009 2:03am Sep 29, 2009 2:03am
Short initiated @ 143.50...let's see where it goes
COT: The precious data ignored
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