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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,281
  • Sep 28, 2009 1:24am Sep 28, 2009 1:24am
Quoting yen44x
Thanks my man . . . I was looking forward to taking your method out for a "test drive" this week, but I think I'm taking this week off after looking at that huge candle.
The reason I believe the box size holds no value is because it's not a Support and resistance mark, it holds no support or resistance value.

The only thing the high/low of the first 4H bar of the week is doing is giving us a good indication of which direction the big move is going to go. Hence the 40% winning rate.

I would like to point out tho, that the box size does hold value on where you set your take profit, but holds no value if your using a system like mine that has no take profit.

If the box size is 100 pip, and you set your take profit to TP3, that's a 300 pip profit.

If the box is 300 pip, and you set your Take Profit to TP3, that's 900 pips!!! that's too much for a take profit, In this case, takeprofit would be reduced to TP1, or TP1/2
  • #4,282
  • Sep 28, 2009 1:29am Sep 28, 2009 1:29am
Quoting Pharoah
The reason I believe the box size holds no value is because it's not a Support and resistance mark, it holds no support or resistance value. The only thing the high/low of the first 4H bar of the week is doing is giving us a good indication of which direction the big move is going to make. Hence the 40% winning rate.
I agree. For me, the only thing the Box really tells me is where to place my trade orders. Using the Box size to determine the optimal SL or TP is pretty much worthless in my opinion.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,283
  • Edited 1:50am Sep 28, 2009 1:35am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting yen44x
I agree. For me, the only thing the Box really tells me is where to place my trade orders. Using the Box size to determine the optimal SL or TP is pretty much worthless in my opinion.
Exactly, for example, if you throw a Moving Average Settings according to my systems Red MA on your GBPJPY chart with your box drawn up for this week, you'll notice that my stop should a trade be triggered right now would be 60% (have to consider the difference in price required for trade trigger vs real market price), the next 4H bar would set the stoploss to somewhere around 40%, the one after that would be at less than 20%, which on 300 pips, is 75 pips, and is also generally the point at which a trade would retrace back into the box, the next bar would most likely stop the trade out at 25 pip loss.

The best way to look at it is like this, Any strategy that uses a breakout or "breakthrough" on anything other than a major support & resistance mark, is the equivalent of a shot in the dark. Lucky for us, it just happens to be a very narrow corridor we're shooting down.
  • #4,284
  • Sep 28, 2009 1:58am Sep 28, 2009 1:58am
Keep in mind everyone, that this week marks the end of the 3rd quarter for the year. There is likely to be a lot of volatility this week. Plus we also have NFP coming on Friday.

PA is likely to be likened to a cat on crack
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  • #4,285
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:00am Sep 28, 2009 4:00am
According to Ace, this week is a no trade. He doesn't trade boxes larger than 200 pips. See below.

Quoting Ace284
Stoploss is typically 100 – 150 pips on average. After TP1 the stoploss is at BE. I don't trade weeks with 200 pip boxes because the target of 800 pips is usually unrealistic.





Ah, I see. Not to worry, ignoring the boxes 200 pips and over is already a rule.





I can't see much to post on that. But the long trade was not activated. The short trade was stopped out at BE after moving the stop once TP1 was hit.


Overall week: No profits, No loss. Breakeven Week.
  • #4,286
  • Sep 28, 2009 4:15am Sep 28, 2009 4:15am
Quoting TheMaxx
According to Ace, this week is a no trade. He doesn't trade boxes larger than 200 pips. See below.

We are aware that he wouldn't trade a box size this big, but I've seen some weeks in my backtesting that exceed 200 pips and close to make HUGE profits. Just when a box is this big, don't use a 100% box stoploss...
  • #4,287
  • Sep 28, 2009 6:03am Sep 28, 2009 6:03am
Quoting PiPsAddict
Keep in mind everyone, that this week marks the end of the 3rd quarter for the year. There is likely to be a lot of volatility this week. Plus we also have NFP coming on Friday.

PA is likely to be likened to a cat on crack

lol. right now cat's on mogadon
  • #4,288
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:52am Sep 28, 2009 10:52am
Market volatile enough for everyone? Losses from early Asia are a distant memory now. Gold and Oil are driving CAD and AUD.

This market makes me laugh and just confirms how much market manipulation really goes on. I mean com'on... how do fundamentals turn 180% from Friday to Monday to cause this reversal? I know the short squeeze is helping, as I'm sure there's a lot of profit taking going on, which is helping to push prices higher.
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  • #4,289
  • Sep 28, 2009 10:56am Sep 28, 2009 10:56am
Quoting PiPsAddict
Market volatile enough for everyone? This market makes me laugh and just confirms how much market manipulation really goes on.
For sure . . . I can't come close to a joke that's as funny as the market right now.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,290
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:04am Sep 28, 2009 11:04am
Alright . . . what's going on?

First, Shiko leaves (well, kind of), then Ace shuffles out, and then Droland. Finally, I notice I haven't seen Bobcat, Wrenski or Offshore in a few days.

C'mon, buddies, where's the party and how come I wasn't invited?

If and when I am invited, is it the usual BYOB party? . . . you know, Bring Your Own Burro?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,291
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:16am Sep 28, 2009 11:16am
Quoting penfield
I think that some fundamental analysis is needed here. Who or what is moving this market? ...The YEN gained a foothold on the back of comments made by Mr. Yen(Former MoF Chairman Eisuke Sakakibara for you younger readers)
Mr. Sakakibara needs to show a little more consideration for 4H Box Breakout traders . . . if he could have held his tongue a few more hours, the Box would have been set and we'd all be & having a today.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,292
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:33am Sep 28, 2009 11:33am
Quoting yen44x
Mr. Sakakibara needs to show a little more consideration for 4H Box Breakout traders . . . if he could have held his tongue a few more hours, the Box would have been set and we'd all be & having a today.
No doubt Yen....

A late break last week after 4 weeks of ranging.... then an early break this week before the box is set.

I think the "Boys" know what we're up to in here and they are doing everything they can to keep us from banking pips.

Now we'll probably have to sit through 4 more weeks of ranging... lol!
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  • #4,293
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:43am Sep 28, 2009 11:43am
Quoting PiPsAddict
No doubt Yen....

A late break last week after 4 weeks of ranging.... then an early break this week before the box is set.

I think the "Boys" know what we're up to in here and they are doing everything they can to keep us from banking pips.

Now we'll probably have to sit through 4 more weeks of ranging... lol!
If you feel the week is going to range, adjust the bar in which you read from, if you can catch a weekly low bar, you can TP1 almost all long positions (should the week be ranged)
  • #4,294
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:51am Sep 28, 2009 11:51am
Quoting Pharoah
If you feel the week is going to range, adjust the bar in which you read from, if you can catch a weekly low bar, you can TP1 almost all long positions (should the week be ranged)
Very true indeed
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  • #4,295
  • Sep 28, 2009 12:34pm Sep 28, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
Very true indeed
But, I must note, if you are not an advanced trader, and don't fully understand trending, or swinging techniques to help assess the market conditions, stick to the original rules.
  • #4,296
  • Sep 28, 2009 12:37pm Sep 28, 2009 12:37pm
Who is partying? i am trading!!!!!!!
  • #4,297
  • Sep 28, 2009 12:38pm Sep 28, 2009 12:38pm
i am actually betting on price to test new lows...it doe sit often enough lows or highs.
  • #4,298
  • Sep 28, 2009 2:25pm Sep 28, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting shiko
i am actually betting on price to test new lows...it doe sit often enough lows or highs.
If anyone is considering this long position, I would suggest aiming for no more than TP 1/2, I believe that would also be trying to push the bar too far.
  • #4,299
  • Sep 28, 2009 2:49pm Sep 28, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting Pharoah
If anyone is considering this long position, I would suggest aiming for no more than TP 1/2, I believe that would also be trying to push the bar too far.

no, i am going short. we have down trend. it is safer to go along.
  • #4,300
  • Sep 28, 2009 3:17pm Sep 28, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting shiko
no, i am going short. we have down trend. it is safer to go along.
I agree, as I am doing the same, but, I'm just letting others know what TP point they should aim should they decide for some reason to go long on break. Because of the box size, anything more than 1/2 TP1 is far far too much considering the downtrend.
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