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Raymond's journal: step by step

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 27, 2009 7:41pm Sep 27, 2009 7:41pm
- bar 1 selling climatic, high volume,close above middle, strength in the background
- bar 2 high volume up bar, show strength too
- bar 3 spring bar, hidden test too, mark down and close high
- bar 4 my entrance
this trade close at +50, see a ND bar comes
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Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #2
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:20am Sep 28, 2009 8:20am
- bar 1 close off high, with increased volume, show weak in background
- bar 2 volume lower than previous two bar, low spread, would be a test
- bar 3 down bar, with increased volume, show weak; and bar 2 would be a no interest to take part in bar for smart money

My short entry just at bar 3 close
than bar 4 plummeted, +40 at maximal,
at a return back, i closed, with +25 pips bag in
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj2.gif Size: 18 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #3
  • Sep 28, 2009 8:53am Sep 28, 2009 8:53am
- bar A high volume, and close high, strength come in
- bar 1 close lower than bar A, with increased volume, more supply swampped demand in bar A; this show weakness
- bar 2 close lower, my entry just at the close of bar 2
- bar 3 off the low with increased volume, bar 4 wide spread with increased volume, had to stopped out, with -14 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj3.gif Size: 15 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #4
  • Sep 28, 2009 3:27pm Sep 28, 2009 3:27pm
Hi Raymond,

Re post #2 above:
Firstly allow me to suggest that you post your vsa charts with bar candles instead of candlesticks. For most vsa people bars are easier to diagnose then candlesticks even though candlesticks are fine and can be used if personally preferenced. My eyes go bonkers when deciphering vsa in a candlestick chart

Regarding post #2 above.

Bar 1 shows increased volume on a narrowing spread closing just above the middle. This is one of those HPS bars! It is saying... look at how my volume has increased yet my spread has decreased and I have closed in the middle (way down from the top).

If there was such an increase in volume - almost twice the previous bar - and the spread decreased almost by half + it did not even close on the high or near it then..... what did all that volume accomplish! ?

That's right... there is hidden smart money selling in that bar.

2. Following bar #1 is a series of tests with the failed test at bar #3 higher volume down bar.

TJ


Quoting szpower
- bar 1 close off high, with increased volume, show weak in background
- bar 2 volume lower than previous two bar, low spread, would be a test
- bar 3 down bar, with increased volume, show weak; and bar 2 would be a no interest to take part in bar for smart money

My short entry just at bar 3 close
than bar 4 plummeted, +40 at maximal,
at a return back, i closed, with +25 pips bag in
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #5
  • Sep 28, 2009 3:39pm Sep 28, 2009 3:39pm
Hi Raymond,

Yup 1 is stopping volume - strength in background.
Yes 2 is demand overcomming supply.
- - - These 2 candles add extreme strength to the background
- - - Any successful test or ND or spring bar from here will be
- - - a clear signal to go long.
#3 is your spring - the previous bar to is was a NS bar (dbl confirmation)
#4 (entrance... I'd say do lol)

TJ

Quoting szpower
-
bar 1 selling climatic, high volume,close above middle, strength in the background
- bar 2 high volume up bar, show strength too
- bar 3 spring bar, hidden test too, mark down and close high
- bar 4 my entrance
this trade close at +50, see a ND bar comes
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #6
  • Sep 28, 2009 3:59pm Sep 28, 2009 3:59pm
Re: post #3
Assuming you mean bar A is the bar just before bar #1:

On this chart you missread the background, explained.

Bar A does show weakness because it together with the blue bar just
before it is a top reversal pattern (even though it is not).
In candlesticks they call this a belthold and is negative but since it is not
at the top of the move, it just shows weakness.... BUT this was after
strength had already shown up in the background!


Your first sign of real background strength in this chart is the long red downbar coupled with the wide spread following blue bar. This is stopping volume.
Any high volume downbar (3rd bar before #1) with huge spread which is suddenly reversed by the next candle on high volume - this is climatic action or stopping volume. Now even though price continues to move downward due to the huge momentum that was built up this does not negate the weakness already previously setup unless and until you have an equal or greater reverse (from strength to weakness) setup such as for instance; an HPS, upthrust or ND in an up move.

TJ

Quoting szpower
-
bar A high volume, and close high, strength come in
- bar 1 close lower than bar A, with increased volume, more supply swampped demand in bar A; this show weakness
- bar 2 close lower, my entry just at the close of bar 2
- bar 3 off the low with increased volume, bar 4 wide spread with increased volume, had to stopped out, with -14 pips
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #7
  • Sep 28, 2009 5:48pm Sep 28, 2009 5:48pm
Really appreciate your teaching!
Fantastic teacher! Thanks!
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #8
  • Sep 28, 2009 7:42pm Sep 28, 2009 7:42pm
from 15 minute chart:
- higher low, trend may up
- some bottom reversal along side
so there might be strength in the background

from 5 minute chart:
- bar 1 test
- bar 2 is a low volume up bar, however i think the test would be success, so i enter just at the close of bar 2
- bar 3 down bar, wide spread and increased volume; at this time, i think all-rigth, wehether go out now?
- bar 4 another up bar with wide spread, so i keep, althougth volume lower than previous bar
- bar 5 up bar, wide spread , high volume, and break a potential resistance line, show strength, and may some supply comes in
- bar 6 high volume down bar,although low spread, i am afraid real supply comes in, so close half of my position at +20 pips
with the other half break-even and free run
- bar 7 test bar, vol lower than previous two bar, narrow spread
- bar 8 vol even lower, but up now, maybe an indication of success test to the bar 7
I add aother half position at the close of bar 8
- bar 9 high vol, wide spread, is the supply out? the bar after this bar down bar with high vol
- bar 10 and the bar just before it are all no demand, since bar 9 may be of weakness, i close my position here
The first half part with 40 pips, the second half part 10 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gj5.gif Size: 13 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #9
  • Sep 28, 2009 11:37pm Sep 28, 2009 11:37pm
Hi Raymond,

2nd bar before the #1 bar is a shakout=strength.
Since this pair is already in an uptrend that in itself indicates strength in the background so all you need to enter is any trigger setup like a NS bar unless you see some kind of valid weakness in the background like a HPS.

Again, the reason is because price is already moving up so you are only looking to "jump" in the trend.

TJ

Quoting szpower
from 15 minute chart:
- higher low, trend may up
- some bottom reversal along side
so there might be strength in the background

from 5 minute chart:
- bar 1 test
- bar 2 is a low volume up bar, however i think the test would be success, so i enter just at the close of bar 2
- bar 3 down bar, wide spread and increased volume; at this time, i think all-rigth, wehether go out now?
- bar 4 another up bar with wide spread, so i keep, althougth volume lower than previous bar
- bar 5 up bar, wide spread , high volume, and break a potential resistance...
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #10
  • Sep 29, 2009 7:38am Sep 29, 2009 7:38am
-bar 1 shake out, with the next bar up
-bar 2 down, increased volume, narrow spread, i dont know what is this, give it a question mark
-bar 3 test, narrow spread, volume lower than previous two bars,
-bar 4 no supply,mark down and close high,so i long it just at the close of bar 4
-bar 5 volume lower than previous two bar, narrow spread, for fear it as a ND, and bar 2 may show
weakness, i have to close the position, with +2 pips
-bar 6 mark down and close high, test? so i long just at the close of this bar
- bar 7, bar 8, down bar increased vol, show weakness, have to close out here, -22 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj6.gif Size: 16 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #11
  • Sep 29, 2009 6:26pm Sep 29, 2009 6:26pm
Hi Raymond,

On this one I'm just going to post a chart with some explainations on it.

TJ

Quoting szpower
-bar 1 shake out, with the next bar up
-bar 2 down, increased volume, narrow spread, i dont know what is this, give it a question mark
-bar 3 test, narrow spread, volume lower than previous two bars,
-bar 4 no supply,mark down and close high,so i long it just at the close of bar 4
-bar 5 volume lower than previous two bar, narrow spread, for fear it as a ND, and bar 2 may show
weakness, i have to close the position, with +2 pips
-bar 6 mark down and close high, test? so i long just at the close of this bar
- bar 7, bar 8, down bar increased vol,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #12
  • Sep 30, 2009 9:34am Sep 30, 2009 9:34am
- bar 1 no demand
- bar 2 top reverse with bar 1
- bar 3 might be a test,but with bar 4's wide speard down bar and increased volume, this might be a bar of no interest to take part in, which show weakness
- bar 3 would be a lower high verus bar 1
- bar 4 wide spread down bar, with increased low volume
- i short it just after bar 4
- however bar 5 up, with increased volume, my SL +50 pips, almost been there
- bar 6 top reverse, let me feel better
- bar 7 even increased volume up bar, have to close my short here with -12 pips
eventually, the GJ plummet, but i already close with -12 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj2.gif Size: 16 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #13
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:04pm Sep 30, 2009 5:04pm
Hi Raymond, hey that was a nice trade. Weakness in the background started back at the 1&2 top reversal and while price was trying to climb back up you can see most candles closed way off the highs whie the spreads got smaller and smaller strong volume.

One thing you should consider is to use a smaller lot size, maybe 1/2 of what you currently use and double your stop size. It's almost impossible to make trades work with a 10 pip stop, even 20 is considered very small. It's up to you but highly suggested. Just figure out your risk by multiplying your stop loss pips by your lot size. Conservatively this risk amount should not exceed 1 to 2% of your account.

Anyway, good trade... you're doing great!

TJ


Quoting szpower
- bar 1 no demand
- bar 2 top reverse with bar 1
- bar 3 might be a test,but with bar 4's wide speard down bar and increased volume, this might be a bar of no interest to take part in, which show weakness
- bar 3 would be a lower high verus bar 1
- bar 4 wide spread down bar, with increased low volume
- i short it just after bar 4
- however bar 5 up, with increased volume, my SL +50 pips, almost been there
- bar 6 top reverse, let me feel better
- bar 7 even increased volume up bar, have to close my short here with -12 pips
eventually, the GJ plummet,...
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #14
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:09am Oct 1, 2009 7:09am
- bar 1 HPB, incread volume, down bar, wide spread, close off low; and the following bar high volume up bar;
- bar 2 stop volume, increased volume down bar, wide spread;
- bar 3 up bar; i am long here
- bar 4 volume lower than previous two bar, up bar, show weakness
- bar 5 down bar, increased volume, i stop out here, with +30 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj3.gif Size: 17 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
  • #15
  • Last Post: Oct 1, 2009 9:05am Oct 1, 2009 9:05am
-bar1 selling climatic, close off low
-bar2 up bar with high volume, show strengthness
-bar3 shake out, wide spread, increase volume
-bar4 test
-i long just at bar 4, with SL -55 pips hit,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj4.gif Size: 14 KB
Be a friend, My skype id: helloworldsh
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