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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #61
  • Nov 17, 2005 9:50pm Nov 17, 2005 9:50pm
Quoting diallist
I'm glad you started this thread HeavyJ. And just to say thanks, here's some more fruit! :
Thats odd! My Interbank chart doesn't match yours. Notice how my ema cross has yet to happen I doubled checked my indicators too!

HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #62
  • Nov 17, 2005 10:10pm Nov 17, 2005 10:10pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Yes Master! Thanx to you I'm on it!

How bout that Swissie? Shaping up? Maybe?

HJ
Swissie's next signal looks like it's going to be a secondary one. Assuming the trendline that's just above the first fib line holds, there may be room for a little profit if you play it very carefully. Personally, I'm going to wait for swissie to drop below the 55 and take the next primary signal. That's just me.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #63
  • Nov 17, 2005 10:12pm Nov 17, 2005 10:12pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Thats odd! My Interbank chart doesn't match yours. Notice how my ema cross has yet to happen I doubled checked my indicators too!

HJ
I'm using MetaQuotes data feed, which may account for the difference. I don't know.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #64
  • Nov 17, 2005 10:24pm Nov 17, 2005 10:24pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Thats odd! My Interbank chart doesn't match yours. Notice how my ema cross has yet to happen I doubled checked my indicators too!

HJ
Both should be SMAs, not EMAs
  • #65
  • Nov 17, 2005 10:56pm Nov 17, 2005 10:56pm
Quoting Matsu
Both should be SMAs, not EMAs
Thanx Matsu. Another bonehead blunder.

That'll do it every time

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #66
  • Nov 18, 2005 2:54am Nov 18, 2005 2:54am
Hi Dial,

Can you help me out on the understanding of trend determination?

I've read thru the vegas doc and gone thru all these posts and it seems
that you are using a different method of determining the trend.

In post #50 you mention a potential trend change on cable using
the current weeks ma's and the previous weeks ma's. In the vegas doc
they mention the trend lags by at least a week. During a current week
they use the prior weeks ma's and the week before that and don't use the
current weeks ma's until the week has fully completed.

Can you confirm the method you are using for trend determination or do you use a combination of both methods using yours towards the end of the week?

Also, can you give me an idea of what size stops we can expect to use with this method on cable?

Thanks
  • #67
  • Nov 18, 2005 6:15am Nov 18, 2005 6:15am
Quoting diallist
My turn to be the bonehead. I don't understand what you mean. Could you expand on this idea a bit?
Dial,

Please leave the bonehead stuff to us pros, your not ready!

As to what I meant Here

Quoting HeavyJ
Thanx Dial- Point well taken. The Vegas doc speaks of the Weekly Momentum indicator as "lagging" by one week. I have been wondering about the value of logging the dif of current weekly bar at each 4hr period
Seems to me that this would have more value at times like now when the week is running out..
Sort of dovetails with riveras last post.

This is the part of the Vegas Doc we were both reffering too
Quoting Team Vegas

Now, look at the difference between the two. As a market rises over time on the weekly chart, the 5 will rise faster relative to the 21. As the market goes down, the 5 will lose faster relative to the 21. The difference, in pips between the two, measures relative momentum of the market in real time. Each week, as long as the number of pips keeps rising [SMA 5 – EMA 21] from the previous week, the market continues in a bull run. Once a bull run loses pips [SMA 5 – EMA 21] from the previous week, it signals a medium-term top in the market. Conversely, once a bear run loses pips [EMA 21 – SMA 5] from the previous week, it signals a medium-term bottom in the market.

This now gives us [with only one week lag] a positive probabilistic model in determining which side [long or short] to initiate trades in a defined time period. We are identifying market momentum.
Now the second thought I eluded to:

Quoting HeavyJ
I have been wondering about the value of logging the dif of current weekly bar at each 4hr period
Seems to me that this would have more value at times like now when the week is running out..
Boy. as I read that I get confused! But you had mentioned or rather inferred, on a chart example, as Rivera pointed out, measuring Current Momentum data from the Weekly Chart before the current bar was complete.

My comment was that I had been curious about this practice and if it would be valueable

The "week running out" part has to do with the fact (?) that as the Weekly sample becomes more complete (Friday 4pm est) that bar will or should be a better sample.

In other words when the bar opens first tick. open and close will probabbly be within one tick of each other and this would polute your bar to bar deviance.

I have got to get some coffee

I hope I haven't further confused you

Have a good day!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #68
  • Nov 18, 2005 6:42am Nov 18, 2005 6:42am
OK...heres my next chart guys...please be brutal!

(I've actually followed on from you two earlier on.)

*edit - the prior patterns label refers to my analysis, not the tunnel*

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/4618/4h0rf.th.gif
  • #69
  • Nov 18, 2005 6:57am Nov 18, 2005 6:57am
Quoting diallist
I'm glad you started this thread HeavyJ. And just to say thanks, here's some more fruit! :
Dial
Doesn't the 50 pip filter apply here? Therefore entry would be 8sma-50 pips.Tom
  • #70
  • Nov 18, 2005 8:04am Nov 18, 2005 8:04am
I think if by "the exclusion zone" you mean the fifty pip rule. The Doc says you should fall back to technicals for open? So I think Dials respect of the lower trend line on the AUDUSD would be valid to the system. But then again ...consider the source...me not Dial

HJ

Quoting Isotonic
OK...heres my next chart guys...please be brutal!

(I've actually followed on from you two earlier on.)

*edit - the prior patterns label refers to my analysis, not the tunnel*

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/4618/4h0rf.th.gif
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #71
  • Nov 18, 2005 1:32pm Nov 18, 2005 1:32pm
i have two more goodies for you chaps to play with! :

the first indicator is just a rework of the original with the scaling magnified by 10^4 to make the MACD easier to read.

so for the audusd the diff between the two ma's is now 133 pips instead of the cryptic 0.0133 you normally see.

the second one calculates the difference over the last week in pips so that again we get 133.52 - 116.33 = 16.19 pips.

just hover the mouse over the last two bars on each of the indicators (i've increased the thickness to 5) so you can see the actual values themselves.

i will look at the vegas scripts at some point, particularly the expert one, and see if there is anything worth "borrowing"

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/2341/4h9kw.th.gif
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip indicators.zip   6 KB | 835 downloads
  • #72
  • Nov 18, 2005 2:34pm Nov 18, 2005 2:34pm
just a quick scribble without any indicators


http://img286.imageshack.us/img286/4771/4h9ry.th.gif
  • #73
  • Nov 18, 2005 2:37pm Nov 18, 2005 2:37pm
Quoting Isotonic
i have two more goodies for you chaps to play with! :

the first indicator is just a rework of the original with the scaling magnified by 10^4 to make the MACD easier to read.

so for the audusd the diff between the two ma's is now 133 pips instead of the cryptic 0.0133 you normally see.

the second one calculates the difference over the last week in pips so that again we get 133.52 - 116.33 = 16.19 pips.

just hover the mouse over the last two bars on each of the indicators (i've increased the thickness to 5) so you can see the actual values themselves.

i will look at the vegas scripts at some point, particularly the expert one, and see if there is anything worth "borrowing"

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/2341/4h9kw.th.gif

Does this indicator lokes like this ---> (see attachment)
Attached Image
kiss the trend
  • #74
  • Nov 18, 2005 10:25pm Nov 18, 2005 10:25pm
Quoting riveria
Hi Dial,

Can you help me out on the understanding of trend determination?

I've read thru the vegas doc and gone thru all these posts and it seems
that you are using a different method of determining the trend.

In post #50 you mention a potential trend change on cable using
the current weeks ma's and the previous weeks ma's. In the vegas doc
they mention the trend lags by at least a week. During a current week
they use the prior weeks ma's and the week before that and don't use the
current weeks ma's until the week has fully completed.

Can you confirm the method you are using for trend determination or do you use a combination of both methods using yours towards the end of the week?

Also, can you give me an idea of what size stops we can expect to use with this method on cable?

Thanks
Excellent observation riveria! Yes, Vegas Team does calculate the weekly trend based on the two most recently completed bars. They perform their calculation at the end of each week after the market closes on Friday. I would use this method if I were trading the system mechanically. But, because I choose to trade with discretion, I want to know what the status of the trend is in realtime. With the original Vegas Team method, trend state is binary. It is either up, or it is down, and trades would always be taken in the matching direction. I traded the original model this way until I encountered my first trend change that occurred on several currencies at the same time. I got my butt kicked trading with the Vegas trend when the actual market was moving the opposite direction. That emphasized for me Vegas Team's statement that the model was vulnerable to losses at trend changes. Since then, I monitor momentum in realtime. When I see momentum decrease I don't automatically start trading in the opposite direction. I use the decrease as an alert to keep a close watch on the combined price action of the weekly and 4 hour charts. If the momentum says the opposite of what the weekly bars are saying, I give precedence to the weekly bars in determining trade direction.

As for stops on cable. Currently, I set most of my stops a couple of pips beyond the last swing high/low prior to the trade signal. On cable this usually yields a stop in the range of 50 to 100 pips. Sometimes more, sometimes less. I then adjust my position size accordingly to keep within my percent risked limit. For a while the 100 pip stops really bugged me because it caused my position size to be too small to keep me happy. I tried setting my stops to a maximum of 50 pips, but I got stopped out so frequently, that I just bit the bullet and decided to stick with the recent swing high/low. As I gain additional experience with this system, I expect my stop loss methodology to become more refined.

Again, great observation and question riveria!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #75
  • Nov 18, 2005 10:28pm Nov 18, 2005 10:28pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Dial,

Please leave the bonehead stuff to us pros, your not ready!

As to what I meant Here


Sort of dovetails with riveras last post.

This is the part of the Vegas Doc we were both reffering too


Now the second thought I eluded to:



Boy. as I read that I get confused! But you had mentioned or rather inferred, on a chart example, as Rivera pointed out, measuring Current Momentum data from the Weekly Chart before the current bar was complete.

My comment was that I had been curious about this practice and if it would be valueable

The "week running out" part has to do with the fact (?) that as the Weekly sample becomes more complete (Friday 4pm est) that bar will or should be a better sample.

In other words when the bar opens first tick. open and close will probabbly be within one tick of each other and this would polute your bar to bar deviance.

I have got to get some coffee

I hope I haven't further confused you

Have a good day!

HJ
Are you saying I'm not smart enough to be a bonehead?

See the answer I gave riveria in post #86 above.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #76
  • Nov 18, 2005 10:32pm Nov 18, 2005 10:32pm
Quoting caminus
Dial
Doesn't the 50 pip filter apply here? Therefore entry would be 8sma-50 pips.Tom
Good catch caminus! You are absolutely right! Since the intent of my post was to demonstrate how trailing entries could be based on an upcoming neutral line, I wasn't paying attention to the proximity of the SMA's.

Good job caminus! Keep it up!

(See HeavyJ? I are so too a qualified bonehead!)
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #77
  • Nov 18, 2005 10:36pm Nov 18, 2005 10:36pm
Quoting Isotonic
just a quick scribble without any indicators


http://img286.imageshack.us/img286/4771/4h9ry.th.gif
Hey Iso! I'm really liking your comments about discretion! Good use of the intra-aural indicator!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #78
  • Nov 19, 2005 7:45am Nov 19, 2005 7:45am
Quoting Isotonic
just a quick scribble without any indicators


http://img286.imageshack.us/img286/4771/4h9ry.th.gif
That's so cool Iso. I read somewhere that these equilateral pendants break in the direction of the previous trend @ 62% of the time. Has that been your experience? You got tons more chart and scribble time than I!

Also I'm gonna go back to James chart thread this weekend to see how or if he would play the pinbar formed yesterday on the daily. Checkout chart below

Also I'm up to my 3rd day I guess on MT4 maaaaaan what an upgrade.

I intend to disect your indicators 'cause I ain't gettin' it yet. (the programming aspect that is)

Your last improvement looks great (10^4) I'll probably fly that into my template today.

Have a good day
HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #79
  • Nov 19, 2005 7:52am Nov 19, 2005 7:52am
Iso,

Could you help me out? How do I install/load/use these indicators?

Thanx

HJ

Quoting Isotonic
i have two more goodies for you chaps to play with! :

the first indicator is just a rework of the original with the scaling magnified by 10^4 to make the MACD easier to read.

so for the audusd the diff between the two ma's is now 133 pips instead of the cryptic 0.0133 you normally see.

the second one calculates the difference over the last week in pips so that again we get 133.52 - 116.33 = 16.19 pips.

just hover the mouse over the last two bars on each of the indicators (i've increased the thickness to 5) so you can see the actual values themselves.

i will look at the vegas scripts at some point, particularly the expert one, and see if there is anything worth "borrowing"

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/2341/4h9kw.th.gif
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #80
  • Nov 19, 2005 9:42am Nov 19, 2005 9:42am
Quoting riveria
Hi Dial,

Can you help me out on the understanding of trend determination?

I've read thru the vegas doc and gone thru all these posts and it seems
that you are using a different method of determining the trend.

In post #50 you mention a potential trend change on cable using
the current weeks ma's and the previous weeks ma's. In the vegas doc
they mention the trend lags by at least a week. During a current week
they use the prior weeks ma's and the week before that and don't use the
current weeks ma's until the week has fully completed.

Can you confirm the method you are using for trend determination or do you use a combination of both methods using yours towards the end of the week?

Also, can you give me an idea of what size stops we can expect to use with this method on cable?

Thanks
Here's a small article that may help you:

http://www.professionalforex.com/for...topic.php?t=12

As well as:

http://www.professionalforex.com/for...wtopic.php?t=7

Trend is not overly difficult to determine especially one you've trained you eyes to spot it. It's kinda like missing the forest for the trees.

I'm a huge believer and proponent of new traders learning the Dow Theory. It helped me tremendously as a new trader and I think it's vital to overall success.

I can now spot most trends easily without the aid of lines, channels, crystal balls, or chicken bones. Though the chicken bones do help somewhat with price action!

All of this is because of training myself to see the general direction and the patterns that fit into the theories. Of course, staring at charts for endless hours is the only way to accomplish this as well as verifying your results with someone you trust.

Once that is done, you'll wonder why you had such a hard time with it!

~MuddBuddha
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
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