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  • #621
  • Sep 25, 2009 1:29pm Sep 25, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting supremeChaos
eSignal (http://kb.esignalcentral.com/display/2n/articleDirect/index.asp?aid=3108&r=0.3485529)? 200-300(?) sources/contributors.
Sure, but the question is what are the sources and who are the contributors?

You can (probably) get EBS data from a prime broker but again it's going to be incomplete, how could it be used effectively?
  • #622
  • Sep 25, 2009 1:43pm Sep 25, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting pipmutt
Sure, but the question is what are the sources and who are the contributors?...
the contributors are right on that link. scroll down
  • #623
  • Edited 3:00pm Sep 25, 2009 2:47pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting thesnacker
I have a feeling, posters on this thread are trying to create their own 'order flow religion' or trying to find a 'new age philosophy' to guide their life /sarcasm.

I can assure you it is much simpler than that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
The only problem with thinking with your feelings is that they won't lead you anywhere worth being. Orderflow is not simple supply and demand. The spot market daily volume is actually around 1.5T, thanks for trying wikipedia. If you don't have a correct understanding of orderflow, then why are you trying to explain it? If you are gonna pull the 'orderflow is on the charts' card, while not knowing what orderflow is anyways, why do you waste your time typing up such long monologues? I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but I take issue with posts like this because they dumb down the thread. Posting links to wikipedia might sometimes be helpful, but you've really proven nothing.

"There are many kinds of sincerity and insincerity. When you say 'thank you' for the salt, do you mean what you say? No. When you say 'the world is round,' do you mean what you say? No, it is true, but you don't mean it. Now, sometimes a man like your brother really finds a thing he does mean. It may be only a half truth, quarter truth, tenth truth; but than he says more than he means--from sheer force of meaning it." - G.K. Chesterton
  • #624
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:19pm Sep 25, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting thesnacker

Its not like the level 2 on a centralized exchange (i.e. NYSE, NASDAQ) where all the limit orders are in one place, and can be seen by all. Contrast that with the forex market, for example the CME book may show limit sells on EU at 1.40 of the value of $20 billion, but on some other continent some other bank who is not showing their cards on any exchange is ready to buy $80 billion at 1.40. That MIGHT blow right threw your 1.40 limit sell, depending in other quantity factors.

-snacker
Yes but since also future moves with supplie and demand, you can consider it like a good statistical sample of what happen globally on forex, and certainly who trade some high size uses some strategy like iceberging, black box trading etc...

Quoting supremeChaos
eSignal (http://kb.esignalcentral.com/display/2n/articleDirect/index.asp?aid=3108&r=0.3485529)? 200-300(?) sources/contributors.

eSignal is useless since don't have market depth, it's only aggregated feed from oder source like your broker, don't waste your money...

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #625
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:24pm Sep 25, 2009 3:24pm
this is order flow, and if you look fine you can see where the sell pressure begin.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: orderflow003.png Size: 63 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #626
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:28pm Sep 25, 2009 3:28pm
If you talk about to have informatione about who why and when before those information apper on you feed, you talk maybe about trading the news in depth, or worst insider trading?

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #627
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:32pm Sep 25, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting supremeChaos
the contributors are right on that link. scroll down
The link was an expired session but thanks anyway, but the thing is what data are you getting? Perhaps volume that they want to show you, indicative rates and price changes, all from participating liquidity providers and adjusted by brokers.

I've never compared the two scientifically or conclusively but an interbank feed has substantially fewer ticks than a brokers feed, maybe there's an arb opportunity but I doubt it would last for long before the broker moved you on.

There's plenty of theory in this thread and although it's interesting I can't see any practical advantages to any of it to be honest.
  • #628
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:01pm Sep 25, 2009 4:01pm
Here.....I coded this for a last 2 weeks....a real orderflow indicator!
Like thread starter said, the answer is behind the chart and
in white space.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dh.gif Size: 9 KB
forexflash
  • #629
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:15pm Sep 25, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting FOREXflash
Here.....I coded this for a last 2 weeks....a real orderflow indicator!
Like thread starter said, the answer is behind the chart and
in white space.

Real good can you share it please......
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #630
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:38pm Sep 25, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting LuboLabo
this is order flow, and if you look fine you can see where the sell pressure begin.
Lubo, can you explain in details this chart, what is each line, indicator, etc?


thanks in advance.
  • #631
  • Sep 25, 2009 6:09pm Sep 25, 2009 6:09pm
Quote from Darkster

Not to be a stickler for accuracy, but this isn't orderflow trading. All your doing is commenting on market mechanics.

I have read most of Darkstar's posts and if we want to try and emulate what he is doing we have to use the orderbook as this is what he uses, nothing to do with charts.

The thread starter showed us some chart examples of 'thinking' in terms of orderflow but in my opinion this is just price action as we cannot see what orders in terms of volume were being traded, as others have said we are just guessing after the fact.

Darkstar has spent 4000 hours figuring this out so it's not going to be easy is it, and quite rightly he's not going to show anyone as he has spent so much time perfecting his strategy.

But the information that I gather from reading his posts are:

he uses the order book and nothing else
he does not trade very often (he has lots of spare time)
he knows where the stops are
he talks a lot about options
he makes a lot of money.

I assume from all this that he only trades when a specific option is minutes away from expiry and that price at expiration would be on a significant support or resistance level or simply one with oo or 50 as this is where most retail traders have their stops.
Then he will look at the orders that are being placed and which orders are disappearing from the order book :

here is my made up example
eur/usd is trading at 1.4 and price moves down to 1.3950 so now the retail traders decide to sell, they all think that since it has fallen 50 pips they will place their stop at 1.4
they don't know that an option is expiring in 30 minutes at 1.4
the informed trader sees the price approaching 1.4 and places a buy order 5 pips beyond the strike price.
At 10.26 the price is 9 pips away from the strike price and large trades are now being 'seen' in the order book.
At 10.30 the price moves through 1.4 triggering the retail stops and the informed trader has his order filled. With such a large concentration of stops on the other side price shoots 10-15 pips and the informed trader closes the trade.

This is pure speculation and maybe a million miles away from the truth but what would be interesting is to get historical option expiration prices say for eur/usd and place these strike prices on a chart, then examine what happened to price at these particular points.

If anyone thinks this is an avenue worth exploring we need someone who knows which options are 'valuable' .
Just a thought.

Cheers J
  • #632
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:01pm Sep 25, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting Scotty B
The only problem with thinking with your feelings is that they won't lead you anywhere worth being. Orderflow is not simple supply and demand. The spot market daily volume is actually around 1.5T, thanks for trying wikipedia. If you don't have a correct understanding of orderflow, then why are you trying to explain it? If you are gonna pull the 'orderflow is on the charts' card, while not knowing what orderflow is anyways, why do you waste your time typing up such long monologues? I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but I take issue with posts like...

1) I wasn't expecting anyone to get upset over a comment I made, with a /sarcasm. It's an internet forum, lighten up, its not like its war.


2) Wikipedia tends to be fairly accurate. The majority of the writers are educated in the fields they write about, with the validity of the the articles discussed on the discussion pages. They even have an article on reliability
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia
Obviously some articles such as those in the history and politics section will have discrepancies, but so do main stream and paper encyclopedias. The work on math, sciences, and specialty subjects tends to be of high quality.


3) Here is the latest report on the Forex market from the BIS the Bank of International Statements, The last major report was 2007 (every 2-3 years they issue it, keeping a heads up on the next one) and the spot market was $1,004,889,000,000. http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf07a.pdf

Other markets such as the options, forwards, and swaps, may not be traded directly such as spot, but have direct influence on a currency. example: Before the financial crisis alot of companies in eastern europe had options, swaps, and forwards to hedge their strong currencies.

http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/markets/100056383-1-factbox-how-financial-crisis-affecting-eastern.html - where it talks about Poland
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awd1vGnyyBJQ&refer=home

After the crash and currency depreciation they owed alot on the currency options, forcing many companies to bankruptcy, pull up a USD/PLN, EUR/PLN chart look how steep price moved. Spot isn't the only important aspect of the market, options, forwards, and swaps are too.


4) I provided a small concise summary of my knowledge of the Orderflow>Price>Time aspects of trading. Obviously order flow is not on a chart and I never said that, you did. I summarized price as the direct result of order flow EQUILIBRIUM at a certain point in time.


5) You may consider my posts as a 'long monologue' but I have provided facts with sources and in the case of demand and supply a logical deduction to what it means on a chart. In fact I will even thank you scottyb, I have never been to the BIS website, but after your claim of $1.5T spot market size, I went to check it out, and managed to find a ton of great articles and data on the markets at the BIS, I urge everyone to check it out, lots of good stuff.

-snacker
  • #633
  • Edited Sep 26, 2009 12:16am Sep 25, 2009 11:53pm | Edited Sep 26, 2009 12:16am
Quoting slimcat
Quote from Darkster

Not to be a stickler for accuracy, but this isn't orderflow trading. All your doing is commenting on market mechanics.

I have read most of Darkstar's posts and if we want to try and emulate what he is doing we have to use the orderbook as this is what he uses, nothing to do with charts.

The thread starter showed us some chart examples of 'thinking' in terms of orderflow but in my opinion this is just price action as we cannot see what orders in terms of volume were being traded, as others have said we are just guessing...
Good post, good points. Retail stops most likey don't interest anyone but the brokers who exercise them. We are too small. It's the stops that the big guys at the banks have set that matter. I read recently that the retail sector of forex is still too small to have any lasting impact on the spot market. You bring up a good topic with options. They are important and certain types of options can be very powerful. If darkstar is looking for options placements, he's probably looking for barrier options. To my current knowledge, when barriers expire, price often explodes through them. I think someone may have mentioned them in this thread even. I think someone mentioned china holding barrier options in Euro and talked about how price would be sold off as it would rise and approach the option value. You could even play that kind of information negatively and sell/buy off of the places you know that these are placed. When they expire, trade through them.
  • #634
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:17am Sep 26, 2009 3:17am
Quoting slimcat
If anyone thinks this is an avenue worth exploring we need someone who knows which options are 'valuable' .
How about IFR (http://www.ifrmarkets.com)?

And here's (http://www.forextraders.com/forex-strategy/exploiting-currency-options-expiries-for-forex-trading.html) an interesting article, there are probably dozens more around the net.

This is something tangible worth researching, better than all the 'fluff' about seeing banks order books and retail traders stops, lol
  • #635
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:25am Sep 26, 2009 3:25am
CFTC.....COT......
forexflash
  • #636
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:34am Sep 26, 2009 3:34am
Quoting Scotty B
I think someone may have mentioned them in this thread even. I think someone mentioned china holding barrier options in Euro and talked about how price would be sold off as it would rise and approach the option value. You could even play that kind of information negatively and sell/buy off of the places you know that these are placed. When they expire, trade through them.
You can follow the reply's from my post regarding the barrier options. Interestingly enough price blew threw that level.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3011798&postcount=266
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #637
  • Sep 26, 2009 5:05am Sep 26, 2009 5:05am
I found this image for data feed route's.
EBS is used mainly for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, and Reuters D2 is used for all other interbank currency pairs, mostly commonwealth pairs such as Australian dollar and British pound.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DataFeed.png Size: 28 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #638
  • Sep 26, 2009 6:26am Sep 26, 2009 6:26am
Quoting LuboLabo
If you talk about to have informatione about who why and when before those information apper on you feed, you talk maybe about trading the news in depth, or worst insider trading?

Lubo.

I can't really say.
It was just the angle I took back then in the hunt when I hunted.
I was looking for something I didn't know-or an angle I've never taken.

All the information presented is great info and can be used to greatly to increase your chances of survivalsuccess. But to me, it's like yeah ok, we already know this. This is stuff you guys are already know and are applying, so this can't be what they are talking about.

But... maybe that's it...maybe this is stuff people don't apply or use and I'm wrong in assuming most do.
  • #639
  • Sep 26, 2009 12:46pm Sep 26, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting LuboLabo
I found this image for data feed route's.
EBS is used mainly for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, and Reuters D2 is used for all other interbank currency pairs, mostly commonwealth pairs such as Australian dollar and British pound.
Both EBS and Currenex control more than 80% of orderflows and are owned by custodians of the market makers. You know the link now. This is a one-sided game.
  • #640
  • Sep 26, 2009 1:05pm Sep 26, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting LuboLabo
I found this image for data feed route's.
EBS is used mainly for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, and Reuters D2 is used for all other interbank currency pairs, mostly commonwealth pairs such as Australian dollar and British pound.
Here is another view of the network.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fx_decentralized_market_structure1.jpg Size: 127 KB
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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