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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,181
  • Sep 25, 2009 12:10pm Sep 25, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting penfield
Well said!
For those who read my rant earlier, please don't misunderstand if you're in the majority that just reads the thread but never posts . . . that's fine IMO. The vast majority of threads have a few posters, and many more who are reading to learn or just be exposed to new ideas, and there's nothing wrong with that.

My opinion, though, is if someone wants to complain about the direction of the thread, that's fine and healthy . . . but do something to improve it. Be part of the solution rather than the problem.

OK, I'm done with that subject . . . back to trading. Have a good weekend one and all.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,182
  • Sep 25, 2009 12:16pm Sep 25, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting Pharoah
Here here, well said yen, your post's no matter what any single person says, are a bit much, but in alot of cases, VERY NEEDED!!!
Hey, Pharoah, speaking of a bit much . . . I caught your battle on the other thread yesterday, but don't worry . . . I WAS WITH YOU ALL THE WAY, BUDDY! (bring back any bad memories?)
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,183
  • Edited 12:47pm Sep 25, 2009 12:29pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting yen44x
Hey, Pharoah, speaking of a bit much . . . I caught your battle on the other thread yesterday, but don't worry . . . I WAS WITH YOU ALL THE WAY, BUDDY! (bring back any bad memories?)
Meh, people have their own opinions, I just say it like it is, people dun like the truth, ain't my problem lol. Go check it again, there was another one today lol.

But it is true tho, because there are no visual, or audio aids to assist in assessing the tone and volume of the poster, it has become a grounds at which to measure the tone and volume of the poster, and to also measure the emotion behind the message.

But anyway, I thought that was like, a universal thing, maybe I'm wrong, but something tells me I'm not. Past is past, present is present, and according to the present, pockets those pips if u still have an open trade in 15 minutes, generally in the last 3 hours it just ranges!!!
  • #4,184
  • Sep 25, 2009 1:21pm Sep 25, 2009 1:21pm
All of my trades have been closed, are here are my results at close.

GBPJPY - +466 pips
EURGBP - +111 pips
USDCAD - +197 Pips
EURJPY - +228 pips

Grand total of 1002 pips profit.
  • #4,185
  • Sep 25, 2009 1:23pm Sep 25, 2009 1:23pm
Quoting shiko
Catch catch it before it flies away
it looks like the time to put those green shots into the bank
Hehe, indeed!
Too bad it's just demo eh?

No but i needed this ego boost as things really haven't gone that well lately.
At the moment i'm practicing traditional support & resistance trading.
No Fibs, no EA's.. no nothing, only S&R to get comfortable with it.
This week i made +700 pips.

..but to be honest it was some real reckless trading without stops and limits, lol.
I figured it's a good idea to start learning the patterns and then after a while put in some limit orders and then finally completing the sequence by experimenting with stops and trailing stops.
  • #4,186
  • Sep 25, 2009 2:48pm Sep 25, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting Pharoah
All of my trades have been closed, are here are my results at close.

GBPJPY - +466 pips
EURGBP - +111 pips
USDCAD - +197 Pips
EURJPY - +228 pips

Grand total of 1002 pips profit.
Nice Job!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Like Yen, I too have been following your thread with the utmost respect.

Unfortunately I started trading this method during hell month. I know that there are more losing trades than winning ones so I stuck with it. After being knocked out so many times I figured I would take a rest this week while the boys and girls in Japan were vacationing. One could only take so many poundings.

Go figure, this would have been a great week to stay the course. I learned my lesson. Fortunately I still have enough in my account to buy a Starbucks coffee and danish. My resolution is to abstain from Starbucks this weekend and build up my account enough to where I can stay in the ring.

Congrats to all those who stayed in the game.
  • #4,187
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:12pm Sep 25, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting penfield
Nice Job!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Like Yen, I too have been following your thread with the utmost respect.

Unfortunately I started trading this method during hell month. I know that there are more losing trades than winning ones so I stuck with it. After being knocked out so many times I figured I would take a rest this week while the boys and girls in Japan were vacationing. One could only take so many poundings.
My advice, so that nearly every week is a profitable week (if your using my smartstop system) is to take partial (50% lot size) profits at TP1, because TP1 is hit nearly 60% of the time, so even if the price retraces, and hit's BE, you still made TP1 profits on half your lot size. it's win win.

I have a spreadsheet calculator made that calculates the average/pip and dollar value, I have set it according to my research, at approx 40% win rate to TP2(original trade stops out in a profit), average loss of 30% box size, 30% loss, and 30% BE (these are rough estimates based on research) and a 60% TP on half the order, according to my math, and I may be missing something, but I'm not sure, according to my math, with my system, and a close half profit at TP1, you only have to win 1% of the time, BE 0% of the time, and loose 99% of the time, to still be in profit at the end of the year. (Yes I know, it sounds impossible) but it's those close half positions on TP1's that happen 60% of all trades that make it so this system can profit in ranged weeks.
  • #4,188
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:24pm Sep 25, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting Pharoah
My advice, so that nearly every week is a profitable week (if your using my smartstop system) is to take partial (50% lot size) profits at TP1, because TP1 is hit nearly 60% of the time, so even if the price retraces, and hit's BE, you still made TP1 profits on half your lot size. it's win win.

I have a spreadsheet calculator made that calculates the average/pip and dollar value, I have set it according to my research, at approx 40% win rate to TP2(original trade stops out in a profit), average loss of 30% box size, 30% loss, and 30% BE (these...
Hey Pharoah... can you shoot me a link to your thread where you explain your system? I like the fact that you are quick to bank profits and then protect and let the rest run. Sounds like it is very stress free trading.

EDIT: Never mind Pharoah.... I just found your secret lair
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #4,189
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:29pm Sep 25, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
Hey Pharoah... can you shoot me a link to your thread where you explain your system? I like the fact that you are quick to bank profits and then protect and let the rest run. Sounds like it is very stress free trading.
Sure Can, this thread outlines nearly everything about my system, it is definitely stress free, and only requires you to be at your PC once every 4 hours to update stoplosses.

The ONLY time you should lose any amount (around 50% box size) is in the rare case that a trade is triggered, and in that same bar, the stop is triggered. Otherwise, it should be win win win.

Pharoah's 4H Breakout Thread

Edit: And yes pips, you're very right, my system is a 99.9% stress free system, you could suffer from heart attacks and still be able to trade my system worry free.
  • #4,190
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:34pm Sep 25, 2009 3:34pm
Pharoah: My advice, so that nearly every week is a profitable week (if your using my smartstop system) is to take partial (50% lot size) profits at TP1, ....

That is a great plan. Ah the wonders of free trading.

Unfortunately I have been using the set and forget method, albeit I check the trade before and after work and between homework assignments with the kids. Hence there has not been much opportunity to close partial lots at various TPs and set SLs to BE. (I'll bet ya my kids know what these acronyms mean.)

Enough about me.

I have learned much from this thread and the great contributors.

Friends, keep up the great work!

Fiesta at Yen's this weekend. Everyone bring your laptops. Therefore on Sunday night we can all press the enter trade buttons together.

Families welcome. Bring your cameras.

http://www.snarkysumbish.com/images/TJZebra.jpg
  • #4,191
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:43pm Sep 25, 2009 3:43pm
If someone knows of, or could create a script that allows the user to input a takeprofit point, and a % of trade close option, that would make taking half position profit at TP1 that much easier.
  • #4,192
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:01pm Sep 25, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting penfield
Pharoah: My advice, so that nearly every week is a profitable week (if your using my smartstop system) is to take partial (50% lot size) profits at TP1, ....

That is a great plan. Ah the wonders of free trading.

Unfortunately I have been using the set and forget method, albeit I check the trade before and after work and between homework assignments with the kids. Hence there has not been much opportunity to close partial lots at various TPs and set SLs to BE. (I'll bet ya my kids know what these acronyms mean.)

Enough about me.

I...

Good one Pen. You are going to have the fun police after you now.
  • #4,193
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:07pm Sep 25, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting penfield
I have learned much from this thread and the great contributors. Friends, keep up the great work! Fiesta at Yen's this weekend. Everyone bring your laptops. Therefore on Sunday night we can all press the enter trade buttons together. Families welcome. Bring your cameras.

http://www.snarkysumbish.com/images/TJZebra.jpg
Everything's ready . . . come on down. But, there's one condition . . . you can't paint the burros . . . the only one they allow to do that is Wrenski, but it's just because they know him so well.

P.S. I refrained from bringing up burros for over 24 hours, but what can I do if someone else brings them up . . . I can't be rude and ignore them, right?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,194
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:12pm Sep 25, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting yen44x
Everything's ready . . . come on down. But, there's one condition . . . you can't paint the burros . . . the only they allow to do that is Wrenski, but it's just because they know him so well.

P.S. I refrained from bringing up burros for over 24 hours, but what can I do if someone else brings them up . . . I can't be rude and ignore them, right?

And oh, how I love to paint a burro. That is my favorite thing to do after a brew or two.
  • #4,195
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:13pm Sep 25, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting Pharoah
My advice, so that nearly every week is a profitable week (if your using my smartstop system) is to take partial (50% lot size) profits at TP1, because TP1 is hit nearly 60% of the time, so even if the price retraces, and hit's BE, you still made TP1 profits on half your lot size. it's win win.
Pharoah,

I have already attested to the value of your "smartstop system". But if TP1 is hit nearly 60% of the time, why not simply rake in your profits at that point and call it a day? 60% winners will grow your account.
  • #4,196
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:19pm Sep 25, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting yen44x
Everything's ready . . . come on down. But, there's one condition . . . you can't paint the burros . . . the only one they allow to do that is Wrenski, but it's just because they know him so well.

P.S. I refrained from bringing up burros for over 24 hours, but what can I do if someone else brings them up . . . I can't be rude and ignore them, right?
Who said anything about burros. You must be seeing things.
  • #4,197
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:23pm Sep 25, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting penfield
Who said anything about burros. You must be seeing things.
Oops . . . I guess that shows the power of pictures . . . you're right, I could have sworn someone mentioned a striped burro.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,198
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:28pm Sep 25, 2009 4:28pm
Used same strategy as Post# 3597:

GBPJPY (2 trades):

1st lot LONG = -50 pips
2nd lot LONG = -50 pips

1st lot SHORT = +190 pips
2nd lot SHORT = +430 pips

Glad to get that 7 trade loosing streak over with!
  • #4,199
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:29pm Sep 25, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Pharoah,

I have already attested to the value of your "smartstop system". But if TP1 is hit nearly 60% of the time, why not simply rake in your profits at that point and call it a day? 60% winners will grow your account.
I agree, buy why limit yourself to such a small amount when there's soooo much more potential, think about it this way.

if a trade is triggered, and TP1 is reached, the stoploss is now at BE for the original trade (or VERY near), if you close half the position, the other half will have to stop out at the other side of the breakout box to cause that week to be a negative week. Which with my smartstop system, is 99.5% improbable, So, with that said, if the price reaches TP1, the weeks profitable already, even if the rest of it stops out at BE, so why just cut it off there when there is potential for soo much more.

Not to mention the R:R reduction at only taking TP1 for full close, with that, the R:R is somewhere around 1:3 with my smartstop system, when the 50T close would be more like 1:6 or 1:7 with a win rate on 40% of those, and TP1 on 60% of those, and BE on 30%, and a small loss of a average of approx 30% 30% of the time, you're looking at vastly improving the amount of profits in the run of a week.
  • #4,200
  • Sep 25, 2009 5:43pm Sep 25, 2009 5:43pm
These are the reasons, according to my calculations, as to why TP1 take partial, and let the rest ride is this reason.


With a full 1.0 Lot size (which will become 2 separate lots of .5 for takepartial) setting a full take profit at TP1 would result in these results, over 100 trades, with these Values (which are the approximation of my smartstop system)

Values for Take Full at TP1
Win rate 60% to TP1
loss Rate 20%
BE Rate 20%
Average Loss 20% of box
Box Size Average 100 pips
Lot Size 1

Pips gain over 100 trades is approximately 5600 pips, or a total of $56,000

Values for Take Partial at TP 1 and letting the rest ride (opening 2 ".5" lots to = the "1.0" lot from previous example)
Win Rate 40% to TP2 (Close .5)
TP1 Rate 60% (close .5)
Loss Rate 20%
BE Rate 20%
Average Loss 20% of box
Box Size average 100 pips
Lot Size .5

Pips Gain over 100 trades is approximately 13600 pips, or a total gain of $68,000
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