trading pivot points. how to tell if support/resistance will hold? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Weekly Pivot to Pivot Trading 19 replies

Best Reliable Sources for Daily Support and Resistance points. 2 replies

Looking for indicator to draw support pivot resistance 1 reply

Get Pivot-Support-Resistance Points Every Trading Day 20 replies

Support and Resistance Points 7 replies

Attachments: trading pivot points. how to tell if support/resistance will hold?
Exit Attachments

trading pivot points. how to tell if support/resistance will hold?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 24, 2009 11:39pm Sep 24, 2009 11:39pm
I'm trying to figure it out. when price hits support 1, how do you know that it will hold? Or how do you know it won't. what is a method i can use to correctly buy at the proper support or sell at the proper resistance?

thanks
  • #2
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:47pm Sep 24, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting sed34
I'm trying to figure it out. when price hits support 1, how do you know that it will hold? Or how do you know it won't. what is a method i can use to correctly buy at the proper support or sell at the proper resistance?

thanks
You never know for sure, but most often it will...I would say about 70% of time form my experiences. What I do is wait till gets 3-7 pips above or below pivot to enter. And set a relatively tight stop loss. I use 10-15 for sl.
  • #3
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:50pm Sep 24, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You never know for sure, but most often it will...I would say about 70% of time form my experiences. What I do is wait till gets 3-7 pips above or below pivot to enter. And set a relatively tight stop loss. I use 10-15 for sl.
you must be a scalper with such a tight stop. I've been doing some research and it seems to be a good idea to buy at 3rd support and sell at 3rd resistance. But those are extreme day.
  • #4
  • Sep 25, 2009 12:24am Sep 25, 2009 12:24am
Look at the 4 hr candles or even the one hour. Of course nothing is set in stone. Look & see if price is closing above or below S or R. So if price closes below S1 on a 4 hour chart then you might want to target the next level down or a least half way between levels going down. And what you could do is put your stop loss at the mid point between R or S. So lets say the price reached S1 & you think it will bounce back up. So you buy & put your SL between the mid point of S1 & S2. Look at eur/usd right now. The last 4 hr candle bouced off the pivot which i have close to 1.4700. So right here you could short & put your SL between R1 & the mid point of R1 & the pivot. There are many ways to do this. Remember these are just levels. Prices will hit these levels & they might bounce or they will keep going in one direction. It's like a pinball machine. GL
  • #5
  • Sep 25, 2009 2:32am Sep 25, 2009 2:32am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You never know for sure, but most often it will...I would say about 70% of time form my experiences. What I do is wait till gets 3-7 pips above or below pivot to enter. And set a relatively tight stop loss. I use 10-15 for sl.
Uhm.. Do you have some statistics on that? I really don't think that's correct - if it is, I'll add pivot point as one of my automated systems because 70% possibility on this market is VERY high.

[I might run a small test later to see how many times the price actually bounces and how many times it penetrates]
  • #6
  • Sep 25, 2009 2:42am Sep 25, 2009 2:42am
Try reading John L. Person's Forex Conquered. I have been trading a similar style to him for sometime now and it has been successful. Others may disagree but this book is a good read. Hope it helps guys.

Kia Ora - Anaiya
  • #7
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:37am Sep 25, 2009 3:37am
I typically wait for price to form a swing hi/low around these levels. To go long, i wait for price to breach the swing hi; for shorts, price has to break the swing low. For stops, if the opposite swing isn't too pip-heavy, i hide it there, otherwise, i put a stop on the pivot level.
  • #8
  • Sep 25, 2009 6:52am Sep 25, 2009 6:52am
Quoting mikkom
Uhm.. Do you have some statistics on that? I really don't think that's correct - if it is, I'll add pivot point as one of my automated systems because 70% possibility on this market is VERY high.

[I might run a small test later to see how many times the price actually bounces and how many times it penetrates]
Hey Mikko,

If you do run the test, will you publish your findings, please? I would be interested to know if pivots actually do have price bounce at them. However, as each broker has a different Midnight start, you might want to consider offsetting the broker Midnight to ACTUAL London midnight and NY midnight as separate tests. You might also consider testing weekly and monthly pivots also.

Anyway, having tested pivots myself, I can find no conclusive evidence either way, but then I tried testing manually which was laborious and I'm sure there were mistakes in my tests or data gathering. Saying that, I found that entry at clear hammers/reverse hammers and scalping small lots seemed to work well, but did not fit my trading style, so I abandoned it.

EDIT... Corrected fibs for pivots in the above paragraphs.
  • #9
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:08am Sep 25, 2009 7:08am
Quoting sed34
I'm trying to figure it out. when price hits support 1, how do you know that it will hold? Or how do you know it won't. what is a method i can use to correctly buy at the proper support or sell at the proper resistance?

thanks
IF you are going to use pivots alone, then I suggest that you read through the Dove Alliance's old thread - its was either July last year, or the year before.

You might also find this thread of interest - we use pivots and physcological levels aka sweet spots.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=98028
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10
  • Sep 25, 2009 7:38am Sep 25, 2009 7:38am
Quoting Anaiya
Try reading John L. Person's Forex Conquered. I have been trading a similar style to him for sometime now and it has been successful. Others may disagree but this book is a good read. Hope it helps guys.

I spent quite a bit of time backtesting Person's pivot system, and it wasn't profitable.
I don't believe pivots work.
  • #11
  • Sep 25, 2009 8:00am Sep 25, 2009 8:00am
Quoting billbss
I spent quite a bit of time backtesting Person's pivot system, and it wasn't profitable.
I don't believe pivots work.
I'd take a look at some of my posts.

I make a good living trading pivot points and nothing else.

m
  • #12
  • Sep 25, 2009 8:16am Sep 25, 2009 8:16am
Quoting acumen
I'd take a look at some of my posts.

I make a good living trading pivot points and nothing else.

m
I'll have a look.
I may be wrong- I've been wrong before.
  • #13
  • Sep 25, 2009 8:46am Sep 25, 2009 8:46am
Quoting billbss
I'll have a look.
I may be wrong- I've been wrong before.
I think lot's of system can work as long as risk management is in place.

They key isn't the system... there are lots of winning systems out there.

I sincerely believe the key is the trader.

If a trader is skilled... lots of chart time... basic understanding of the fundies.... patience... patter recognition... etc... then he/she should be able to beat this market.

Mike
  • #14
  • Sep 25, 2009 8:48am Sep 25, 2009 8:48am
Quoting billbss
I spent quite a bit of time backtesting Person's pivot system, and it wasn't profitable.
I don't believe pivots work.
Was never profitable with it.

Mike
  • #15
  • Sep 25, 2009 8:50am Sep 25, 2009 8:50am
"I make a good living trading pivot points and nothing else."

That part is probably stretching it.

I use other tools also... fibs... S/R... psych levels... I should have said... pivots primarily.

Mike
  • #16
  • Sep 27, 2009 5:59am Sep 27, 2009 5:59am
Quoting acumen
"I make a good living trading pivot points and nothing else."

That part is probably stretching it.

I use other tools also... fibs... S/R... psych levels... I should have said... pivots primarily.

Mike
I used PP as acumen's thread with success

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=98028

Thanks acumen.
  • #17
  • Sep 27, 2009 7:03am Sep 27, 2009 7:03am
Hey mate

I use pivots extensively in my trading. As others have said before, there is no way to know for sure whether the level will hold, but if pivots coincide with other major trading levels, such as round no, s/r, fibs, then the likelyhood of them holding is greatly increased.
  • #18
  • Sep 27, 2009 7:07am Sep 27, 2009 7:07am

  1. Quoting masut
    I used PP as acumen's thread with success

Quoting masut
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=98028

Thanks acumen.
Thanks for the feedback.

Mike
  • #19
  • Sep 27, 2009 7:16am Sep 27, 2009 7:16am
i had so much of faith in pivots infact one of my whole strategy was about just pivot trading...but recently i found PA returns to opposite direction a hell lot of time just above or below pivots and pivots S/R this is so frustrating to lose just for number of pips...if any body have solution for this problem please help me with ur suggestion your PMS will be appreciated or can mail me any time.

thanx


regards

Ali
  • #20
  • Sep 27, 2009 10:18pm Sep 27, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting Islander
IF you are going to use pivots alone, then I suggest that you read through the Dove Alliance's old thread - its was either July last year, or the year before.

You might also find this thread of interest - we use pivots and physcological levels aka sweet spots.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=98028
thanks for the link. i'll give it a read.
0 traders viewing now