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  • #3,421
  • Edited 4:13am Sep 23, 2009 4:03am | Edited 4:13am
Quoting rockk
welcome Dr Geppynius,
I see you trade S&P .from your experience do you think using VSA in fx is appropriate ,since it is not centralised, with different charts from diff brockers with diff volumes.
chart timezones at the broker bucketshops differ for a reason and by design (like the whole market) should be for the disadvantage the traders.
the regular end of day has to be the ny session end and not 0 gmt or any other timezone.

the problem with your broker and the often so called "interbank volume" is the fact, that most of the bucketshops (i don't know any who doesen't) do not submit unfiltered and raw tick data to your platform. the point that it is tick volume and therefore count of price changes in a specified timeframe, does not matter and gives cleanr indications. the problem is missing ticks or summarized orders like i.e. 4 @ 100, 14 @ 100, 32 @ 100 are presented as 1 tick 50 @ 100 and therefore only 1/3 ticks was sent. you cannot rely on that.

i myself wouldn't use the volume which comes with mt4, even tough some vsa traders might be doing good with that.

imho without investing some money into tools like good datafeeds you have to deal with inaccuracy and therefore fro ma vsa side it would be more accurate to trade futures with centralized exchanges. there are even a few futures brokers out there who offer unfiltered raw data from the exchanges like zen-fire which is the fastest i have yet used.

nevertheless, i think that the market behaviour and volume signatures will change in the markets, due to the fact that it is brought to the attention of too many. i am watching many vsa threads popping up here at ff since months. which i pretty much do not like and wrote to the threadstarters. too many think, after studying it a bit, they found the holy grail and need to scream it out loud which is the beginning of the end of working systems. it even could just be that we have to face misleading and faked volume information or big contracts or business worked otc as forwards e.g. which do not get logged. even tough most of them will fail using vsa, because it needs pretty much experience and tens of thousands of screen hours to be mastering it pretty well and really be able to read what's going on and feel comfortable in every situation.
  • #3,422
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:42am Sep 23, 2009 5:42am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
chart timezones at the broker bucketshops differ for a reason and by design (like the whole market) should be for the disadvantage the traders.
the regular end of day has to be the ny session end and not...
do you mean that one need esignal to trade vsa prperly
  • #3,423
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:45am Sep 23, 2009 9:45am
Interesting exchange lately....

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
chart timezones.......
i myself wouldn't use the volume which comes with mt4, even tough some vsa traders might be doing good with that.
imho without investing some money into tools like good datafeeds.......
which datafeed/s do u prefer? & why?
which one/s are u using?
what are your thoughts about TradeGuider (its charts, feeds, etc)

Thanks for your time & posts Sir.
  • #3,424
  • Sep 23, 2009 11:15am Sep 23, 2009 11:15am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
ES (E-mini S&P)

5-Min.


Not annotated chart (mainly because I don't know the "proper" VSA terms), but you can see what I was seeing with the highlighted bars...


Magnus
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  • #3,425
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:21pm Sep 23, 2009 12:21pm
I was wondering about a way of chart reading and I would like to have some opinion of yours guys, the more the better.

Why not use VSA to identify longer term directions, swings on 1H, say, and scale in for entry using VSA analysis on a lower TF? I guess this is what many attempt to do.

It seems to me difficult - at this stage - to find a nice spot and take a position for couple of hours for sure. If we just look at this nice swing on GU. All we had to do is find our way in (provided we anticipated some sort of up move). By the way, one could have blindly take a position following Malcolm's analysis and get a hell amount of pips - yet again.

The main question here: if I am not happy with the quality of the bar set up, can I manipulate the TF till I can recognize what I am looking for - curve fitting? This is a bit of forcing the information out from the chart though.

A simple example: I am looking for an UT but there is none on the Xm TF so I scale in/out between several TFs to find that there is indeed an UT somewhere.
Say there is no UT on 15m, but on 20m, 10m, 5m or on 25m and so on.

My problem here: the more I scale in, the more the noise too. On 5m and 3m there are many potential UT looking bars sometimes - that is why I am trying to trade of the 10m, 15m, 30m and so on. On higher TF there is the effect of session starts and difference in Volume in general though. I know Tom is saying that SM never sleeps, but I have never seen massive Volume on the 4H TF between New York end and Tokyo Open.

IMHO the TF is a bit subjective, there is order flow and that is all. An UT on the 4H may look different depending on broker too!

So what say you, especially guys with more experience?
Kind Regards zol
  • #3,426
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:29pm Sep 23, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting Yuppie
ES (E-mini S&P)

5-Min.


Not annotated chart (mainly because I don't know the "proper" VSA terms), but you can see what I was seeing with the highlighted bars...


Magnus

very basic and easy trades here and sos in this robotrading ruled market
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  • #3,427
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:32pm Sep 23, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting zoli
I was wondering about a way of chart reading and I would like to have some opinion of yours guys, the more the better.

Why not use VSA to identify longer term directions, swings on 1H, say, and scale in for entry using VSA analysis on a lower TF? I guess this is what many attempt to do.

It seems to me difficult - at this stage - to find a nice spot and take a position for couple of hours for sure. If we just look at this nice swing on GU. All we had to do is find our way in (provided we anticipated some sort of up move). By the way, one could...
pretty easy zoli. the higher tf rules. a 5m UT may only last 5 mins!
e.g. don't long trade against weakness on higher tfs. if you want to trade lower tfs like the 5m, do it on known support of the higher tfs. just ee the 30m/5m pic above. it is there for a reason and price travels again to it for a reason...this is picking up remaining orders sitting at a specified price.
  • #3,428
  • Edited Sep 24, 2009 2:29am Sep 23, 2009 12:33pm | Edited Sep 24, 2009 2:29am
Without comments.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT: Sorry guys, my sincere apology here. I did post a chart with material on it, of posting the provider have not agreed. I just pull this back with basic look, the set up still stands.
Kind Regards zol
  • #3,429
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:39pm Sep 23, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Interesting exchange lately....


which datafeed/s do u prefer? & why?
which one/s are u using?
what are your thoughts about TradeGuider (its charts, feeds, etc)

Thanks for your time & posts Sir.
i am using zen-fire for futures, explained in a previous post why.
fx i use esignal..there are better ones out there but you have to pay a whole lot in the 5 digit area.
i do not like the TG software...especially handling and drawing tl etc. it is good for learning but not for charting imho. i cannot say something about their feed which is realtimedata.

for charting i really like the way sierracharts plots the HLC bars and the handling also is decent. i myself use leveragefx for fx because it is the only software which lets you create bars from a single contributor out of the esignal feed whilst the volume shown is the composite volume. i do not like esignal fx price bars, because of their long wicks due to different prices at the different brokerages. for futures i use sierrachart & ninjatrader. feed is zen-fire.
  • #3,430
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:48pm Sep 23, 2009 12:48pm
Dr. Geppynius;

Awesome. Awesome. Awesome.

Your reputation proceeds you and is well earned. I understand you are busy but it is nice to see a post once in a while from one of the greats. Thank you and I hope to see more of your VSA mastery in action.

P.S. Malcolmb is a very good testatment to your knowledge and teaching skills.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,431
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:51pm Sep 23, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
pretty easy zoli. the higher tf rules. a 5m UT may only last 5 mins!
e.g. don't long trade against weakness on higher tfs. if you want to trade lower tfs like the 5m, do it on known support of the higher tfs. just ee the 30m/5m pic above. it is there for a reason and price travels again to it for a reason...this is picking up remaining orders sitting at a specified price.
Thanks Dr, you have cure for sure. That is important for some new people, not to contra trade against some more serious SOS or SOW and in the FOREX market there is a lot going on for sure. I will keep in mind.

Regarding with the change in Volume during several sessions, how do you interpret a Test or ND, or any VSA indications if it happens in a trading time of generally lower Volume - pl see attached chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VSA_128.gif Size: 25 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #3,432
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:57pm Sep 23, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting zoli
Thanks Dr, you have cure for sure. That is important for some new people, not to contra trade against some more serious SOS or SOW and in the FOREX market there is a lot going on for sure. I will keep in mind.

Regarding with the change in Volume during several sessions, how do you interpret a Test or ND, or any VSA indications if it happens in a trading time of generally lower Volume - pl see attached chart?
Attachment
it all has to be seen relatively to the previous bars. you only should stay out of the market during the desert, which is the time between ny session end and tokyo beginning, because this mainly is junior associates moving markets around a little.
nevertheless, i only like to trade the most liquid markets like the s&p 500- i still do not know why everybody talks about the DOW, lol. FX i prefer to trade the london session but mostly overlap of the london/us when the most amount of participants is awake and insanely clicking their buy&sell buttons on their putahs
  • #3,433
  • Sep 23, 2009 1:37pm Sep 23, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i am using....
fx i use esignal..there are better ones out there but you have to pay a whole lot in the 5 digit area.......i myself use leveragefx for fx because it is the only software which lets you create bars from a single contributor out of the esignal feed whilst the volume shown is the composite volume. i do not like esignal fx price bars, because of their long wicks due to different prices at the different brokerages....
Interesting Sir.

do the '' better ones' '' high price + better feed not worth it enough to make a significant dent in your bottomline?
what's the significance of this option? does it give better info, VSA wise, than the composite volume?
do the long wicks 'distort' or hamper with your VSA analysis?

It's great for me to see u post 'almost live'. I've basically waited for this scenario for +/-1year.
Appreciate your time.
  • #3,434
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:14pm Sep 23, 2009 3:14pm
before every reversal we see a climax and this is what we saw here by excessive acitivity. 2 pretty safe entries. just apply the "allow for 1 bar against the trade" rule and see what happens. we are short and if we have a second green bar (CLOSE!) then we are out. the second entry which i took would net big points when this stopping rule is applied. i failed to apply it...

u begin to develop a sense of when such action is preparing a countermove...like i smelled here. you must develop a sense of thinking "here might come the pop to short"

importance on the screenshot: on the entry bars the market HAD already turned into our desire direction by making lower lows/ lower highs and this is the time to look for such bars. such bars and upthrusts in upmoves/trends are meanignless and can rapidly be taken out.
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  • #3,435
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:38pm Sep 23, 2009 3:38pm
Yuppie,
thanks for chart..

I see that i have problem with this kind of setup - Last up bar - low volume, narow spread.. closing in middle - please, explain how to look on them.. Or someone other.. Because i see that kind of bar like NO DEMAND.. But i know that ND can be only in downtrend..

One day i will understand

Thank You everyone !

Best,
Tom

Quoting Yuppie
ES (E-mini S&P)

5-Min.


Not annotated chart (mainly because I don't know the "proper" VSA terms), but you can see what I was seeing with the highlighted bars...


Magnus
  • #3,436
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:05pm Sep 23, 2009 4:05pm
Hello all VSAers. Happy to see a regain of activity in this great thread about VSA and specially that D. Geppynius is back posting some comments. Your comments are always much appreciated sir.

This is an Euro 5min chart using Ninja Trader and Esignal GTIS forex composite as the data feed.

Before news, as usual, we see indecision in the market as price range. Then FOMC rate and announcement came out and price spike up.

As VSA teachs us, we dont like up candle on high volume, this is exactly what we get at candle 1.

So here is what i saw before going short:

1) An effort to rise candle which is also a WRB7. But look where that candle close, off its high and the next candle is down. This candle and the next one clearly shows weakness and there is no result in effort to rise.

Also, the fact that this candle was a WRB does tell us that a potential change in the supply and demand dynamic came in the market. Another thing to look for.

2) Here we have a down candle that made a higher high but close on its low and made a long up shadow. All this on ultra high volume. This is an upthrust and a serious sign of weakness.

Please take note also that the high of that upthrust got rejected in the zone of the previous day high which is an important area to always consider looking at as many insitutional traders do look at it as key reference point.

However, this is not the time to go short for me yet. Why? We have climatic volume type of action. We need to remember that one of the best setup in VSA is to take a trade in a a region of a previous high volume area when volume is becoming less. That is what we get afterward.

The candle after the Upthrust candle labeled 2 is not marked as nothing special there to note except the natural consequence of a previous climatic volume candle which is to try another attempt at the new high just made.

3) Here we get an up candle that close up but close off its high and in the middle portion of its range and on relatively high volume but on volume less than the previous 2 volume bars. Eventhough some will not see this new upthrust as a no demand candle, I am as it fit the definition of an up candle close from previous candle with volume less than the previous 2 volume bars. The fact that this candle close in the middle portion of its range is another indication of weakness.

What make this candle been used as my trigger point to go short on the open of next candle is the fact that I did get what i wanted to see which is:

a lower volume candle signal in the area of a previous high or climatic volume candle which are all screaming the same to me: "weakness".

Also, please take note that this candle did make another attempt at breaching previous day high and failed again.

Entry is made on open of candle number 4.

As for exit, i do not really discuss about it as it is a matter of personal preference which include money management, using new WRB created to exit partial or total position or waiting for sign of strenght which would negate the current down move and so on.

Hope this post was helpful.

Sincerely

Shreem
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,437
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:28pm Sep 23, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
before every reversal we see a climax and this is what we saw here by excessive acitivity. 2 pretty safe entries. just apply the "allow for 1 bar against the trade" rule and see what happens. we are short and if we have a second green bar (CLOSE!) then we are out. the second entry which i took would net big points when this stopping rule is applied. i failed to apply it...

u begin to develop a sense of when such action is preparing a countermove...like i smelled here. you must develop a sense of thinking "here might come the pop to short"...
Just an extension of the Dr.'s brilliant post.

The first sign of a Climax actually came in (5 min.) last night. We get the ultra high volume ultra wide spread up candle that is a key change in the supply/demand dynamic. The zone created here is the zone shown in both charts.

The next really significant climax candle comes on the release of the Fed news. As I noted in chat, the next candle is an up thrust.

As the good doctor points out, the ideal place to get short would be AFTER we begin to see lower lows and lower highs. Simply, after the trend has changed. Notice the low volume up candle two intervals after the Up thrust. This is an agressive entry as we have not yet seen the change in trend. Plus the candle is increasing in range, not decreasing.

The market gives two narrow range up bars on volume less than two for entry points.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,438
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm
Today was a VSAer's dream day.

There was a news release that was perceived to be good (bullish). Volume surged as prices jumped to the upside. The herd is thinking "here we go Dow 1100".

VSAers know that the market does not like high volume up candles (bars). VSA was saying this could be weakness as there may be hidden selling within these up candles. Plus, one has to look at the close and ask the question, "what did the market actually do on all that volume?" Volume is the effort, the close is the result.

In the Euro, we saw a high volume up candle that closes well of its high with the next candle down. There must of been selling or the next candle should not be down. Speaking of the next candle, more volume entered here yet the close is near the low of the range. A range which did make a higher high than the previous interval. Selling entered as price rose and thus pushed price down. This is weakness.

In the Indecies or in the Euro, seemingly good news that pushes prices up on ultra high volume actually purport lower prices. The SM uses such as opportunities to postion themselves against the herd. It is the reaction to the action that matters most.........
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,439
  • Edited Sep 24, 2009 2:37am Sep 23, 2009 7:23pm | Edited Sep 24, 2009 2:37am
I could not agree more to the above comments, very nice guys thank you. Today was a very nice day for us indeed. These professionals really do play around here.

I asked Tom once what his feeling was about the position SM had been taking prior to XY news (I think it was NFP). The chart was a bit going to some direction - some trap move to the uninformed. He said he has no idea what the NFP announcement has to do with the EU price. Well, he said, probably nothing.

I do not know whether there is anything to do with it, I can see though that SM uses this opportunity to unload/upload with all their holdings and kill some stops if they are there already. Why not, we have a beautiful day today after all - they may think?

Today was a great lesson to me - on a day where conveniently two high impact news event took place. The first one gave an opportunity to create a buying climax, the second an Up thrust on GU.
This price action really does look like a Wyckoff schematic of distribution to me. I could as well put over my diagram from the book and it would just fit. Preliminary support, Climax, secondary test (No Demand by VSA) UT.....all these sort of terms.

Great exercise to witness in real time! I hope you all shorted!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VSA_133.gif Size: 37 KB



EDIT: I am not experienced and I do not know whether this market will go down significantly. I only know that there was a classic distribution pattern according to Wyckoff and VSA so there was a down move after.
I also try to anticipate the length of the down move using Goodman Wave. It may or may not come true.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=168509

EDIT2: Sorry guys, my sincere apology here. I did post a chart with material on it, of posting the provider have not agreed. I just pull this back with basic look, the set up still stands.
Kind Regards zol
  • #3,440
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:44pm Sep 23, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
pretty easy zoli. the higher tf rules. a 5m UT may only last 5 mins!
e.g. don't long trade against weakness on higher tfs. if you want to trade lower tfs like the 5m, do it on known support of the higher tfs. just ee the 30m/5m pic above. it is there for a reason and price travels again to it for a reason...this is picking up remaining orders sitting at a specified price.
Thankyou for the clear and simple explanation.
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