fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

Let's see if that channel provides some kind of action/reaction...

US Dollar Index, respecting its channel so far.

If it breakout watch the 77.72 level to provide resistance (and support for eurusd).

Testing last week value High at 1.4620.

If we get back below 1.4580, we could tank and go test the weekly value low at 1.4486.

Let's see if sellers emerge or not...

Watch yesterday's value 1.4616-1.4516 for direction.
Trend is obvious.
Upside risk is to shoot above the december 2008 @ 1.4719.
Lots of data released today.

No new information.
Market keeps trending, with the 1.4719 in sight.
Will watch the daily channel top at around 1.4735.

Price is over extended to the upside, if we pullback watch reactions at 1.4620-1.4612-1.4580-1.4548
No valid reasons to short.
Waiting for the dips...

hoooraaaa !!!

We got a new high 1.4734 above the old 1.4719 December 2008 swing high.
This one is unlocking the possibility of a future test of 1.60+

Now we could see pullback action...

Market in consolidation mode.

Watch 1.4620 and 1.4590 today, for dip buying.

Next upside targets 1.4867 and 1.4909...

Watching to trade last week parameters.
Will go long below 1.4619, targeting POC 1.4714 and value high 1.4752.
The area around 1.4590 should be a good support.
Below 1.4447 should provide a first deep pullback warning.

We have a very busy calendar for the next 2 weeks.

22-23/09 Fomc meeting
24-25/09 G20 Meeting
27/09 Elections in Germany
01/10 China's National day
02/10 Ireland referendum on the EU Lisbon Treaty

This is a lot of information and uncertainty, this will probably give us a ranging market unless we have a dramatic change in the market expectations or a surprise.

Will continue dip buying.

Loaded 1.4619 longs

target 1.4714 - 1.4752 - 1.4867

Target 1.4714 and 1.4752 hit

Let's see if we consolidate or if we continue higher...

Watch 1.4752 for clues...

Opening in yesterday's value.

Watch last week value boundaries, 1.4752-1.4619.

Potential supports 1.4561 - 1.4548 - 1.4494 - 1.4447 - 1.4412

Upside targets 1.4867 - 1.4909 - 1.5000 - 1.5162

Neutral point 1.4727

Dip buying mode still favored for today. Will try to have as small a position as possible for tonight FOMC statement. Will unload after London close, depending on market action. No need to bet the farm and risk an upside $ risk.

Still waiting for 1.4867 target, could exit that position below 1.4752, to avoid giving back too much.

Long 1.4769 yesterday's value low

Target yesterday's value high 1.4834 and 1.4867

1.4834 target hit

Today's developing Value:

High: 1.4806
Poc : 1.4786
Low: 1.4765

Very nice reaction to fomc, no surprise, trading in yesterday's value...

Very nice market, technically wise...

Let's not get too complacent, this market is trending, it's not rocket science.

This will get harder when everybody and his dog will want to hit the exit...

Until then, let's continue to milk the trend with discipline and no second guessing...

Will watch how we trade in yesterday's fomc zone ( 2x 4H candles 1.4844 - 1.4687).

Market will have to decide if it goes back into yesterday's value above 1.4762, or go below last week value high at 1.4752.

This 1.4762 - 1.4752 zone could act as a magnet.

1.4766 the 50% ret of yesterday's range.

Long 1.4678 the 9/21 VPOC

Target 1.4752 - 1.4820

Watching this week high / low values. 1.4611 / 1.4844

I'm expecting to see this week midpoint traded today at 1.4728.
Depending on market action I could unload my underwater longs there and quit for an early week-end...

This end of week, almost end of month and quarter makes me feel cautious. This period was very good, no need to give back money.

I will trade smaller until the end of the month.

This week developing MP parameters, that could be used for today's trade placement:

1.4817 Value high
1.4787 Poc
1.4681 Value Low

S&P 500 4H chart bouncing ?