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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,941
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:42am Sep 21, 2009 9:42am
Hello everyone, especially Yen
this is my first appearance after my wife left for Canada and I still have 2 weeks of vacation, kissing mom and whatever.
i am trading demo but discretionary. 2% in 5 days so far, hanging with 0.25% draw down. i took a long view on gbp/usd. small leverage / multiple positions.

bobcat told i wrote something. damn, i must be drinking too much as i have no recollection about writing anything to anybody
i doubt ace will post anything cause few parasites were stealing his work, but if he did it, somebody else can do it.
i think this strategy is great but i keep working on discretionary trading to improve my chances to trade big OPM.

gbp/jpy is slowly moving north. i wonder what will happen this Wedesday as we are having US rates... this pimp gonna burst sooner or later.

Yes, on second thought i seem wrote something to someone just before leaving for our hotel. may be that was bobcat
  • #3,942
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:45am Sep 21, 2009 9:45am
Quoting shiko
Hello everyone, especially Yen
this pimp gonna burst sooner or later.
Shiko . . . is it really you??

BTW, I always wondered what you did for a living . . . is that legal in Canada? Whatever happens, please don't burst.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,943
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:53am Sep 21, 2009 9:53am
Quoting yen44x
Shiko . . . is it really you??

BTW, I always wondered what you did for a living . . . is that legal in Canada? Whatever happens, please don't burst.
Read above

drinking too much.... = spelling problems :-P
  • #3,944
  • Sep 21, 2009 9:55am Sep 21, 2009 9:55am
yeah, it \s me wife gone, kissinet sleeps g mom is only option as mark
  • #3,945
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:00am Sep 21, 2009 10:00am
what a Cr*p. i gotta check my spelling before posting
anyway, Yen, what percentage of ace's stop loss have you been using ?
  • #3,946
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:03am Sep 21, 2009 10:03am
Quoting shiko
what a Cr*p. i gotta check my spelling before posting
anyway, Yen, what percentage of ace's stop loss have you been using ?
30-40%, with a minimum SL of 40 pips. That means I already hit the SL this week, so we'll see how the week goes for everyone else. So far this week, a 50-pip SL would have been fine.

While you've been gone, the reduced SL just meant that I lost a lot less than I would have with a 100% SL, because it's been pure losers since you left. Man, I hope the two aren't related . . . is it possible you're my good luck charm?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,947
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:04am Sep 21, 2009 10:04am
Quoting shiko
yeah, it s me wife gone, kissinet sleeps g mom is only option as mark
Shiko, even I am not low enough to comment on this post. I don't even want to know what it means.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,948
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:09am Sep 21, 2009 10:09am
Quoting yen44x
Shiko, even I am not low enough to comment on this post. I don't even want to know what it means.
i repeat it after cleaning the mess...

after my wife is gone, the only things left to do is kissing my mom and watching as market sleeps
i am messing up with laptop as mom pasted on Russian letters.... hence a lot of misspelling plus taking my lunch shots
  • #3,949
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:11am Sep 21, 2009 10:11am
Quoting shiko
i repeat it after cleaning the mess...

after my wife is gone, the only things left to do is kissing my mom and watching as market sleeps
i am messing up with laptop as mom pasted on Russian letters.... hence a lot of misspelling plus taking my lunch shots
Uh, ok, that helps.

Let your mom have her turn on the computer now.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,950
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:14am Sep 21, 2009 10:14am
Quoting yen44x
30-40%, with a minimum SL of 40 pips. That means I already hit the SL this week, so we'll see how the week goes for everyone else. So far this week, a 50-pip SL would have been fine.

While you've been gone, the reduced SL just meant that I lost a lot less than I would have with a 100% SL, because it's been pure losers since you left. Man, I hope the two aren't related . . . is it possible you're my good luck charm?

i think with this stop loss we can take more than 2 trades, but probably some discretionary approach might be helpful like trading in trend direction. it is hard to tell now where gbp/jpy is going but on 4H it looks like going down, lower lows and lower highs. but it is already not ace's story.
i will follow your example regarding stop loss size.
  • #3,951
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:17am Sep 21, 2009 10:17am
Welcome back Shiko, have a good vacation? You took the volatility with you when you left give it back

Totally just kidding, welcome back man. Let the posting begin rofl.
  • #3,952
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:30am Sep 21, 2009 10:30am
yeah, sure, i have been wondering why vacation is so volatile i hope to give it back in 2 weeks. i am back right before first 4H candle is closed on October 4.
  • #3,953
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:57am Sep 21, 2009 10:57am
Out of the long with one pip. I moved my SL to +1 at 50 pips and PA has moved lower.
  • #3,954
  • Sep 21, 2009 11:15am Sep 21, 2009 11:15am
Quoting yen44x
Since I'm one of the main culprits, let me give you my 2 pips worth . . .

This thread has two weaknesses (3 if you count me). I'm referring to the thread, not the 4H Box Strategy itself.[indent]1. It's a weekly system. That, it and of itself, is going to limit true trade discussion. One enters on Monday and either wins or loses sometime during the week. Not much to discuss in the meantime. If anyone remembers the OzFX thread, there was a buzz every day when the new trade possibilities surfaced. There were options as to which trades...
I'm still checking the thread on a pretty much daily basis, i think this is the 3rd loosing week in a row or?
According to the back tests this doesn't happen often, but they do happen and so, why not now?

Just remember what Van Tharp wrote, if your system is in a winning streak risk more, if it's in a loosing streak, risk less.

Standard behaviour is otherwise to risk more in a loosing streak since you believe that it must turn around SOMETIME and then you want to be on TOP of that! well... go for it and good luck, but that's not how it works.
..and in winning streaks the behaviour is also to risk LESS, because you believe the trend will reverse and you're gonna loose a lot of money.
This behaviour is refered to by Van Tharp as the Gambler Bias.

I don't remember now why i posted this in a quote to your post yen, but i'm sure there really weren't any reason for it.. erm..um...hm.. yea what the other guys said!
  • #3,955
  • Sep 21, 2009 11:32am Sep 21, 2009 11:32am
Quoting Jesper
I'm still checking the thread on a pretty much daily basis, i think this is the 3rd loosing week in a row or?
According to the back tests this doesn't happen often, but they do happen and so, why not now?

Just remember what Van Tharp wrote, if your system is in a winning streak risk more, if it's in a loosing streak, risk less.

Standard behaviour is otherwise to risk more in a loosing streak since you believe that it must turn around SOMETIME and then you want to be on TOP of that! well... go for it and good luck, but that's not how it works.
..and...
Last week I think was the 4th week in a row, might have been third, but this week so far is either 4th of 5th for sure.
  • #3,956
  • Sep 21, 2009 12:16pm Sep 21, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting Pharoah
Last week I think was the 4th week in a row, might have been third, but this week so far is either 4th of 5th for sure.
Yikes, hard times for sure!
Just remember...


winners never quit and quitters never win!
  • #3,957
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:30pm Sep 21, 2009 2:30pm
There seems to be a pattern forming recently in that the NY market seems to be reversing any momentum that Asia and Europe have built up. Fore the past 3 weeks in a row, almost on a daily basis, Asia and Europe sell off and then NY opens up and goes the opposite direction.

Seems to me that the rest of the world isn't buying this most recent bull run, yet the "puppet masters" in control of the DOW and S&P500 have other ideas in their heads.

Maybe I'm way off base here.... but something doesn't smell right (maybe Yen's burro had an accident )
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #3,958
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:06pm Sep 21, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting Pharoah
Last week I think was the 4th week in a row, might have been third, but this week so far is either 4th of 5th for sure.
I still check in to but didn't use the system this week. I'm waiting for more defined trending for the GJ. It seems to wander around like a drunken sailor lately. But I'm confident it will return to a flow that will make this method a reasonable strategy.

Sandy
  • #3,959
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:41pm Sep 21, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting yen44x
30-40%, with a minimum SL of 40 pips. That means I already hit the SL this week, so we'll see how the week goes for everyone else. So far this week, a 50-pip SL would have been fine.
IMO if you take a percentage of the box as your SL, you and others like Pharoah are implying that large boxes need a higher SL than the smaller ones. Did you guys come to this conclusion after backtesting for a considerable period?

if so, could you provide some figures for me to check?



thanks
  • #3,960
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:09pm Sep 21, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting yonnie
IMO if you take a percentage of the box as your SL, you and others like Pharoah are implying that large boxes need a higher SL than the smaller ones. Did you guys come to this conclusion after backtesting for a considerable period?

if so, could you provide some figures for me to check?



thanks
Here's a question, did you consider the fact that given any week, the original rules imply using a 100% box size stoploss. Does that mean that larger box sizes have the same stoploss size as smaller ones? Nope... the fact remains, when the box is large, it's 100% of the box size, when the box is small, it's 100% of the box size.

Now, if you run a backtest on GBPJPY, you'll notice that when it breaks out, it breaks out and stays out, but when it retraces back, it tends to go the entire box size. All we have done is make this system more range friendly, that is all. In a normal scenario you would lose 250 pips on a 250 pip box size... what we have done is reduced that to 125, or with my system, in some cases, MUCH less. Simple math really.

10/10 the price breaks out of the box
4/10 stays out of the box
2/10 retrace all the way to other side of the box
4/10 don't retrace the full box size (but rarely goes 50%+ box size)

This is just a rough estimate, but I believe it is fairly accurate.
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