Early Bird catches the Worms..GBPUSD | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Bird is the word - 1 word trading advice 120 replies

21 sma trading early bird 13 replies

Early Bird Broker? 0 replies

Attachments: Early Bird catches the Worms..GBPUSD
Exit Attachments

Early Bird catches the Worms..GBPUSD

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:04am Sep 21, 2009 1:34am | Edited 2:04am
Hi all,

A friend has come up with this very simple, yet effective strategy for early morning breakout which seems to occur almost daily.

The rules are as follows:

Take the opening price of the candle that begins at 0630 UK time.

Place a buy stop exactly 20 pips from opening price.

Place a sell stop exactly 20 pips from opening price.

As soon as 1 is triggered, cancel the other.

Target is 20 pips, SL is 20 pips.

We have results since June 09 and they are as follows:

June 2009
Week 1 1st to 5th 4wins/1loss Total +55pips
Week 2 8th to 12th 3wins/2loss Total +10pips
Week 3 15th to 19th 5wins Total +100pips
Week 4 22nd to 26th 4wins/1loss Total +55pips
Total : 220pips

July 2009

Week 1 29th to 3rd 5 wins Total +100pips
Week 2 6th to 10th 3wins/2loss Total +10pips
Week 3 13th to 17th 3wins/2 loss Total+ 10pips
Week 4 20th to 24th 4wins/1loss Total +55pips
Week 5 27th to 31st 3wins/2loss Total +10pips
Total: 185pips

August 2009

Week 1 3rd to 7th 4wins/1loss Total+ 55pips
Week 2 10th to 14th 4wins/1loss Total +55pips
Week 3 17th to 21st 3wins/2loss Total +10pips
Week 4 24th to 28th 3wins/2loss Total +10pips
31st August 1win Total +20pips

Total :150pips

These results are to 20TP and 25SL. It was decided 20TP and 20SL is more efficient, but maybe there are other TP levels that are more beneficial, hence the reason why backtesting would be a fantastic help.

However, we'd like to do some backtesting on this strategy and see what results have been like for the last few years. Hand backtesting is extremely time consuming and an EA would be of massive help.

So, what do you guys think? Sink or swim?
  • #2
  • Sep 21, 2009 1:54am Sep 21, 2009 1:54am
What will you do when Day Light Saving starts in a few weeks time. Would you change the starting time or tag it to a global time like GMT?

Also, from the results you posted, it seems your tgt is 20 pips while SL is 25 pips. While in case of Shorts this is fine as you have to add spread in order to be stopped out, in case of Longs, it may or may not be the case.Would you clarify plz?
  • #3
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:02am Sep 21, 2009 2:02am
Quoting ag_fx
What will you do when Day Light Saving starts in a few weeks time. Would you change the starting time or tag it to a global time like GMT?
This is something that needs to be considered. I'd assume it would remain the same as the movement would still occur before the 7AM opening.

Sorry, I'll edit my first post. First results were recorded with a 25SL and then it was decided 20 SL is more efficient.
  • #4
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:05am Sep 21, 2009 3:05am
Quoting DubaiTrader
This is something that needs to be considered. I'd assume it would remain the same as the movement would still occur before the 7AM opening.

Sorry, I'll edit my first post. First results were recorded with a 25SL and then it was decided 20 SL is more efficient.
No doubt it will be before 7AM, but your open price will change. It will be the price 1 hour earlier than what it is right now. Since your entry trigger depends on the open price, it will change.
  • #5
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:11am Sep 21, 2009 3:11am
This works off using the opening of the 6.30AM candle, UK time. So if the opening is still 7AM, UK time, then surely 6.30AM will still apply?
  • #6
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:24am Sep 21, 2009 3:24am
This method is already out lined here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103682

and here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=183582

and also a strategy called the London ORB and the Asian session breakout (can't find the links).

You are only varying the times nominally. The strategies are well established and in full flow. Try reading those threads before doing any more work here as I'm sure they have done most of the groundwork for you.
  • #7
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:27am Sep 21, 2009 3:27am
Thanks, Lim, I actually just stumbled across the first one now.

However, I would like to continue this thread as the timings are different and I'm not so much as using a box, just the singular candle.
  • #8
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:19pm Sep 21, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
Thanks, Lim, I actually just stumbled across the first one now.

However, I would like to continue this thread as the timings are different and I'm not so much as using a box, just the singular candle.
I can't believe how similar your system is to mine...your results pretty much mirror my own. Actually, you're not really using the singular candle either, just the open price at 1/2 hour prior to the London Market...correct?

Please keep posting because this concept has been working well for me, and I'd like to continue to compare notes.

Thanks for posting your system!

  • #9
  • Sep 21, 2009 6:21pm Sep 21, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting Bobcat2
I can't believe how similar your system is to mine...your results pretty much mirror my own. Actually, you're not really using the singular candle either, just the open price at 1/2 hour prior to the London Market...correct?

Please keep posting because this concept has been working well for me, and I'd like to continue to compare notes.

Thanks for posting your system!

He takes the open price at 6:30 AM London time.

That is 1 1/2 hours before the London open.
  • #10
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:28pm Sep 21, 2009 7:28pm
Actually I dont really like buy/sell stop order, it's very risky. Because GBP/USD have min 30-50 pips swing action in every moves.

-------------------

The Art of Forex Scalping
  • #11
  • Sep 21, 2009 11:23pm Sep 21, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting billbss
He takes the open price at 6:30 AM London time.

That is 1 1/2 hours before the London open.
Bill,

You're a gem! Don't know what I would do without you... Thanks, once again.
  • #12
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:56am Sep 22, 2009 12:56am
Quoting billbss
He takes the open price at 6:30 AM London time.

That is 1 1/2 hours before the London open.
This is true, but half an hr before the Frankfurt opening which is 7AM UK time and this is the time you generally see the markets pick up steam.

I've been lucky enough to have someone helping me with an EA so decent results should be available shortly.

Monday was a successful trade, +20 pips.
  • #13
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:26am Sep 22, 2009 1:26am
Another +20 this morning, a good start to the week.

Entry was 1.6251, exit was 1.6271. Easily could of closed for +30 if leaving open.
  • #14
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:32am Sep 22, 2009 2:32am
This was a Buy trade. Do you add your broker spread to the "box" for your entry price?
  • #15
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:33am Sep 22, 2009 2:33am
And, which broker do you use?
  • #16
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:41am Sep 22, 2009 2:41am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Hi all,

A friend has come up with this very simple, yet effective strategy for early morning breakout which seems to occur almost daily.

The rules are as follows:

Take the opening price of the candle that begins at 0630 UK time.

Place a buy stop exactly 20 pips from opening price.

Place a sell stop exactly 20 pips from opening price.

As soon as 1 is triggered, cancel the other.

Target is 20 pips, SL is 20 pips.

We have results since June 09 and they are as follows:

June 2009
Week 1 1st to 5th 4wins/1loss Total +55pips
Week...

LOL - over four years ago this was my first trading system for cable - and it still has potential....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #17
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:53am Sep 22, 2009 2:53am
Quoting Bobcat2
This was a Buy trade. Do you add your broker spread to the "box" for your entry price?
Yes, thanks for bringing that to my attention.

I believe I'm not allowed to mention brokers until I have a certain number of posts? Is that correct?

In any case, I use several brokers as this is just one strategy I use in my portfolio.
  • #18
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:55am Sep 22, 2009 2:55am
Quoting Islander
LOL - over four years ago this was my first trading system for cable - and it still has potential....
Good to see it has longevity! I think it can certainly be optimised to find ideal TPs and SL levels and various other considerations.

I've only been involved with FOREX since June, so still a steep learning curve.
  • #19
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:52am Sep 22, 2009 4:52am
i new in here, i will introduce my self...haha,,
hai,,,

hahahaha....

OK,,i like with this system, simple and still follow the trend..
and i agree with Mr/Mrs. Limstylz, this system is already, but with name Open UK Breakout...

i very like with this system, simple, following trend.


But how, if before Open market UK, the market has breaking?
maybe, at open Euro, the market has breaking up, or down??
do you still taking the stop order???

Thanks before..
  • #20
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:18am Sep 22, 2009 5:18am
Quoting barehandfx
i new in here, i will introduce my self...haha,,
hai,,,

hahahaha....

OK,,i like with this system, simple and still follow the trend..
and i agree with Mr/Mrs. Limstylz, this system is already, but with name Open UK Breakout...

i very like with this system, simple, following trend.


But how, if before Open market UK, the market has breaking?
maybe, at open Euro, the market has breaking up, or down??
do you still taking the stop order???

Thanks before..
Hi, not quite sure what you mean?

0630UK time is 30 minutes before the Frankfurt open and 90 minutes before London open. However, as I've been watching GU for quite some time now, movement definitely picks up from 0630 onwards.

Hope that answers your question.
0 traders viewing now