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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #198,881
  • Sep 20, 2009 12:29am Sep 20, 2009 12:29am
Short GBP @ 1.6450 TP: 1.6000

Short EUR @ 1.4740 TP: 1.4200

Closed all my shorts for GJ, will re-enter again @ 149 TP:147 SL: 149.60

I guess we might see 140 in the coming weeks
  • #198,882
  • Sep 20, 2009 12:52am Sep 20, 2009 12:52am
question,,how do you see 1400 this week? 700 pips down,,,,no more de 300 pips this week 14700,,who knows maybe 1.4600,,,tath it
  • #198,883
  • Sep 20, 2009 1:24am Sep 20, 2009 1:24am
Quoting A-speculator
Look what i found for EJ, maybe msniper can verify the counting, it's from the web.. hopefully, GJ will follow its direction.
Hi A-Speculator. In the pic that you posted on EJ you assume, that EJ will advance and go higher?

There is a bearish divergence on EU, so I think EJ will go down, and the recent move up is a retracement and EJ is still in the short-term downtrend. Here is divergence on EU I am talking about (trend reversal):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #198,884
  • Sep 20, 2009 3:39am Sep 20, 2009 3:39am
Quoting Maks
Hi A-Speculator. In the pic that you posted on EJ you assume, that EJ will advance and go higher?

There is a bearish divergence on EU, so I think EJ will go down, and the recent move up is a retracement and EJ is still in the short-term downtrend. Here is divergence on EU I am talking about (trend reversal):
I see you are using MACD, I'm using AO to gauge the momentum. Well, if you have doubt, look into daily, you will find that there is a bullish divergence. Will post my chart later, currently busy with aidil fitri festival.. sorry.
  • #198,885
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:57am Sep 20, 2009 4:57am
Quoting isguru
HiDirectTrade

You are a guru in this trading. Any chance of aretracement upto the targets yu said in here or is the `1.66x never to be seen again, not minding 1.7x.
I'm confused over the fact ourdollar is weak, your pound is week, how come yourpredicting all the way down to1.555 with no retracement next week; plus has the cup and shoulder formation completed now.

Thank you in advance, you are very helpful.
Firstly, I am no guru. I read the charts and profit from money taken from others who are on the opposite side of the trade.

I see you mention you are confused, I dont understand. If you read my posts my view is quite clear.

Read this post which was posted after the quote you posted, it explains my reasoning for switching from long to short after I rode a 500 pip ride North on Cable and currently sitting on a 400 pip ride South:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=165189

I will paste the whole of the post here from the above link as it is too large for the quote function on this forum:

13th Sept:
.....................................................................................................................................................

"Here was my view on when holding Longs from 16162/72:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3021614&postcount=16 3321

Reason for entering was looking at Accumulation patterns on the tape:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3016018&postcount=16 2824

Note, the above chart is not representative of reading the ticker, but has been shown as a 5min line chart = easier reference for newer traders.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3012089&postcount=16 2329

The above chart shows why I was sure a bear trap was in progress.


This post and charts from August 29th shows my longer term view. Note the links within the chart to further charts showing how the market would be captured with most on the wrong side here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2998082#post299808 2

But of course, I also posted this chart explaining how the market would be captured and where the Stops needed to be taken out before any fall:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3004662&postcount=16 1734


...and this is the problem... I saw in the PA that a large move was to happen to the upside, this lead me to look for North targets, many of which have been triggered and taken, BUT the last link shows the Stop Loss areas that would need to be taken out before any drop. Now, we have hit these areas and wiped out most traders SL’s, the question is: Do we rise further or fall from here?
I could hold for the other Long targets as posted on the charts, but it just seems that something is not “quite right” with the PA. Hence the reason I closed all long positions on Cable at the end of the week.

2 scenarios in play here:

1st, the stop loss hunt/short squeeze could turn into a bull rally as mentioned in a previous post, the cup and handle formation remain in play meaning my targets up to and above 170/80/90 remain valid.

2nd, this is just a stop hunt/short squeeze and in actual fact we drop very heavily from here.

Question is, which one is correct?

I mentioned on Friday morning I was Short GBP/JPY and leaving cable alone until I saw confirmation within the PA during Sunday PM/Monday AM (GMT). Seems a good choice to have left Cable alone (seeing as it didn’t move at all.)
This has lead me to believe the reason Cable didn’t move on Friday was due to similar predictability: Buyers taking profit, Sellers jumping in, but Sellers cautious and waiting before adding larger positions.

Now, looking at the charts this is what I see:
I am taking a swing trade South, but expect a possible spike up before we go. We need to drop from here to pick up further buyers if we are to sustain a move above 167/8/9. The drop in my opinion may be lower than 165/163 area and would then be in danger of triggering a move below the bottom of the range at 161. I am also still holding short GBP/JPY from 15220 with SL at BE.

Hope you had a great weekend, see you LDN."

.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

I post on this thread and another, the Cable thread. Click on my name at the top of any post and this will take you to my profile page, click on "direct-trades posts" and this will show you all of my posts in all of the threads.


It's all in the price action.
  • #198,886
  • Sep 20, 2009 5:19am Sep 20, 2009 5:19am
so full, so full
Quoting Piters
wow... mate.. [Estero]

better use your Crystal ball for trading, then creating "Conspirative Theories"
  • #198,887
  • Sep 20, 2009 7:30am Sep 20, 2009 7:30am
Quoting Piters
Picking Tops and Picking Bottoms are very "Dirty Jobs".. Please guys when next time you are picking the bottoms, use Latex Gloves..
lol ... and use 2 fingers if you want a second opinion.

How we bounce off 146.7 remains to be seen.

On the downside, 143, 141, 139, 135.5, decent confluence fib targets. with lots of little bumps along the way.
sorry I can't post a chart, travelling for the holidays.


here we go!

(man, I SO want to try this!)

Inserted Video
  • #198,888
  • Sep 20, 2009 8:00am Sep 20, 2009 8:00am
yeah gravity i SO cruel ....
maybe one day ppl can fly upward also
  • #198,889
  • Sep 20, 2009 8:17am Sep 20, 2009 8:17am
geppy sq 100 res/sup area near by
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #198,890
  • Sep 20, 2009 8:33am Sep 20, 2009 8:33am
Quoting Fudomyo

(man, I SO want to try this!)
Shane McConkey is the champ! This December I am going to Whistler, Canada, place where he was living. Fudomyo check these out:

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #198,891
  • Sep 20, 2009 9:05am Sep 20, 2009 9:05am
lol all this drop videos means something ?
  • #198,892
  • Sep 20, 2009 10:04am Sep 20, 2009 10:04am
Well what it means is everyone is short so it will go up and not down....IE everyone is on one sided...when markets get one sided then their is too much money to be made on the other side....that why it reverses and moves the other way! So the shorts might get squeezed here....they haft to be very careful.....their is an area of reversal right here...and right below here! So short squeezed could happen to flush out all the shorts...... the bumps these guys are talking about....

Quoting trading801
lol all this drop videos means something ?
  • #198,893
  • Sep 20, 2009 10:13am Sep 20, 2009 10:13am
Quoting Robby
Well what it means is everyone is short so it will go up and not down....IE everyone is on one sided...when markets get one sided then their is too much money to be made on the other side....that why it reverses and moves the other way! So the shorts might get squeezed here....they haft to be very careful.....their is an area of reversal right here...and right below here! So short squeezed could happen to flush out all the shorts...... the bumps these guys are talking about....
I agree with your thoughts.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #198,894
  • Sep 20, 2009 10:55am Sep 20, 2009 10:55am
Quoting Robby
Well what it means is everyone is short so it will go up and not down....IE everyone is on one sided...when markets get one sided then their is too much money to be made on the other side....that why it reverses and moves the other way! So the shorts might get squeezed here....they haft to be very careful.....their is an area of reversal right here...and right below here! So short squeezed could happen to flush out all the shorts...... the bumps these guys are talking about....
Everyone is short or not is not important. The most important is whether the big dogs also on the short side or not. If they are, then short is safe, if not, then long is safe. Plain and simple :-)
  • #198,895
  • Edited 1:57pm Sep 20, 2009 1:45pm | Edited 1:57pm
The big players are out of their short and putting on long for this cross, according to my sources that are in big banks. From how I read the charts....its an area were it would turn. Everyone looks at things different, that is what makes up a market. Why it's a 0 sum game! Reason why you always need someone to take the other side of the trade!

Quoting mktjong
Everyone is short or not is not important. The most important is whether the big dogs also on the short side or not. If they are, then short is safe, if not, then long is safe. Plain and simple :-)
  • #198,896
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:15pm Sep 20, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Robby
The big players are out of their short and putting on long for this cross, according to my sources that are in big banks. From how I read the charts....its an area were it would turn. Everyone looks at things different, that is what makes up a market. Why it's a 0 sum game! Reason why you always need someone to take the other side of the trade!
they out becuase probably want to see red or light blue scenario abcde corection pattern in the triangle.
dunno when and where we make breakout but PA is pretty clear for now

up to 15350 imho
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #198,897
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:20pm Sep 20, 2009 2:20pm
can anyone be kind enough to confirm that there is a problem with editing of posts now?

i cant do so.. it ends up in error
  • #198,898
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:26pm Sep 20, 2009 2:26pm
anyone want to comment this

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=203592
  • #198,899
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:33pm Sep 20, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting trading801
can anyone be kind enough to confirm that there is a problem with editing of posts now?

i cant do so.. it ends up in error
This problem occurs periodically, often when the site is busy. You can try to edit your post later. I experience such problems from time to time.

By the way, great stories and great blog. Great sense of humor!
  • #198,900
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:38pm Sep 20, 2009 2:38pm
Well the market already know this, Know it for over 2 years. They sell all their oil / gas to Europe anyways...so they have been doing that for over 10 years. Now they just take euros. No need to swap dollars for euros, just do it in euros so the central bank needs to be more euros than dollars! All they are doing is telling you they are doing more euro business than dollar business....

Quoting 5ysfx
anyone want to comment this

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=203592
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