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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,601
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:14am Sep 18, 2009 9:14am
Iam still in. USD bull.... currently 12pips plus.... but before i was some 20pips under the watter...

Closed... +20pips
Great weekend for everyone :-)
  • #10,602
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:25am Sep 18, 2009 9:25am
Quoting auxesis

not going to start chasing stuff and ruin a week
I agree with this and am closing down for the week. Hope you all have a good weekend and see you next week.
  • #10,603
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:59am Sep 18, 2009 9:59am
Quoting GEfx
I agree with this and am closing down for the week. Hope you all have a good weekend and see you next week.
Yep me too, wishing all a great weeeknd.

@FTI, youngest son is having his Eagle Ceremony tomorrow, took some time in getting everything in place but the day is finally here.
  • #10,604
  • Sep 18, 2009 12:37pm Sep 18, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting auxesis
J-pax,

Understand I am learning too.. some pics to ponder, starting with FTI's famous chart.

Know that there are a million, zillion different ways a chart can play out, these are just to provoke some thought and not the answer. Remember in an up trend we want to Buy weakness (valleys) and Sell strength (peaks).

You can trigger candles, levels whatever but you want but the best is to learn to feel the market getting ready to pounce.

for what they are worth,
thank you auxesis, i forgot the fti chart, at first i was thinking it was a joke (to let us know that posting charts is useless because we can dwaw trades after the fact.) since you post it i believe it is genuine and a great lesson.
i will remember your line charts and try to make use of the "backing and filling", i believe it is called.

ok so if i understand correct we build a position as a buffer for when the time comes to attack hard and then unwind the position before it runs out of steam. leave scout in and start all over again. when i look at the fti chart i can see that the reason for the big attacks had no chart-reading reason so it must be feeling.

i had many times i entered exactly when PA started to run but also often i was wrong and it didn't move much or even go against me.
you are right practice practice practice.

about my thinking how MM dictates the dance (some experienced traders here said this) ... i have no ideas. do you think this is essential for fti's way or is this something we will get to understand trough dance practice and using MM (using a skew to build position, attack and unwind and rescue when possible) ??

very good weekend to all, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,605
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:48pm Sep 18, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting j-pax
thank you auxesis, i forgot the fti chart, at first i was thinking it was a joke (to let us know that posting charts is useless because we can dwaw trades after the fact.) since you post it i believe it is genuine and a great lesson.
i will remember your line charts and try to make use of the "backing and filling", i believe it is called.

[i][color=Red]I believe FTI, filled in the attacks on that chart and were not actually taken, (if I'm wrong someone please correct me)....
answers above
  • #10,606
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:49pm Sep 18, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting j-pax
thank you auxesis, i forgot the fti chart, at first i was thinking it was a joke (to let us know that posting charts is useless because we can dwaw trades after the fact.) since you post it i believe it is genuine and a great lesson.
i will remember your line charts and try to make use of the "backing and filling", i believe it is called.

[i][color=Red]I believe FTI, filled in the attacks on that chart and were not actually taken, (if I'm wrong someone please correct me)....
thank you auxesis, i forgot the fti chart, at first i was thinking it was a joke (to let us know that posting charts is useless because we can dwaw trades after the fact.) since you post it i believe it is genuine and a great lesson.
i will remember your line charts and try to make use of the "backing and filling", i believe it is called.

I believe FTI, filled in the attacks on that chart and were not actually taken, (if I'm wrong someone please correct me). What's important is the concept laid out by that chart.

ok so if i understand correct we build a position as a buffer for when the time comes to attack hard and then unwind the position before it runs out of steam. leave scout in and start all over again. when i look at the fti chart i can see that the reason for the big attacks had no chart-reading reason so it must be feeling.

I start the day small and work up. Trying to take profits and build a cushion to help ensure a profitable day. Attacks are when I think/feel price is heading my way and ready to break in that direction.

Different scenarios may mean a bigger or smaller attack.

*I have to disagree partially, I can see some chart reading in his method, but yes, his intuition/feel are the guide, imho.

i had many times i entered exactly when PA started to run but also often i was wrong and it didn't move much or even go against me.
you are right practice practice practice.

Ill-timed attack, yes it happens to me too.

about my thinking how MM dictates the dance (some experienced traders here said this) ... i have no ideas. do you think this is essential for fti's way or is this something we will get to understand trough dance practice and using MM (using a skew to build position, attack and unwind and rescue when possible) ??

Cause and effect, how you use your MM will dictate how you react, either you are in a defensive or offensive mode. Every addition, every subtraction changes the dynamics of the dance. This is why it can not be mechanical. Price action is hard enough to stay on top of, now throw in a dynamic reacting money management system and you can't write enough variables to cover all the different scenarios that could possibly unfold.

People try but at their own peril. There is no way to program this type of trading.

Sorry to get off in left field there, Yes the more you "dance the market" the more clear it will become. Because of Cultural differences, languages and just trying to understand through written material instead of actually seeing it live, at time the content of the tread can be a mystery, but it you try to understand / internalize via interpretation on chart, it will start to clear up for you.
very good weekend to all,

you too!
pax

answers above
  • #10,607
  • Sep 18, 2009 2:06pm Sep 18, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting auxesis
>I believe FTI, filled in the attacks on that chart and were not actually >taken, (if I'm wrong someone please correct me). What's important is the >concept laid out by that chart.
Yes, I think you are correct. At least I have so understood too.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #10,608
  • Sep 18, 2009 2:08pm Sep 18, 2009 2:08pm
Hi Auxesis,

thanx for your charts and the report of your thoughts.
It's always very interesting to see/read how some fellow traders are interpreting the charts and trying to get in sync with the markets ...

Very helpful ....

Reagards,
MaMood
  • #10,609
  • Sep 18, 2009 2:11pm Sep 18, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting textor
Yes, I think you are correct. At least I have so understood too.

Rgs,

Textor
Hi Textor,

great to read from you a little more often now. :-)
I remember, that fti has drawn that chart as an example, how he would have done it. It is not a blotter of a live session.

But what you can see very clear is how he would have added to his attacks, when the momentum begun to increase (candles are getting longer) and how he would have reduced his exposure, when the momentum was getting slower ...
  • #10,610
  • Sep 18, 2009 2:17pm Sep 18, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Textor,

great to read from you a little more often now. :-)
I remember, that fti has drawn that chart as an example, how he would have done it. It is not a blotter of a live session.

But what you can see very clear is how he would have added to his attacks, when the momentum begun to increase (candles are getting longer) and how he would have reduced his exposure, when the momentum was getting slower ...
Hallo MaMood,

Yes, it was exactly this way.
I remember it well because that image and others
that I put from my trading,
helped me to understand the FTI method.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #10,611
  • Sep 18, 2009 3:19pm Sep 18, 2009 3:19pm
I believe FTI, filled in the attacks on that chart and were not actually taken, (if I'm wrong someone please correct me). What's important is the concept laid out by that chart.

stupid of me to think it was about drawing trades on a historical chart and missing the concept laid out. i just could not believe the sequence when i fisrt saw it so i closed my eyes.

Different scenarios may mean a bigger or smaller attack.
so this is also part of the dance.


Cause and effect, how you use your MM will dictate how you react, either you are in a defensive or offensive mode. Every addition, every subtraction changes the dynamics of the dance. This is why it can not be mechanical. Price action is hard enough to stay on top of, now throw in a dynamic reacting money management system and you can't write enough variables to cover all the different scenarios that could possibly unfold.

People try but at their own peril. There is no way to program this type of trading.

Sorry to get off in left field there, Yes the more you "dance the market" the more clear it will become. Because of Cultural differences, languages and just trying to understand through written material instead of actually seeing it live, at time the content of the tread can be a mystery, but it you try to understand / internalize via interpretation on chart, it will start to clear up for you.

fti wrote "about dancing: it's realy "feeling"the market pulse (market form) using charting"

because i was thinking PA IS the dance and i have to follow (wrong), i was confused.
correct me if i am wrong.... the dance is the steps i make and i have to listen to the music/watch the charts.

this seems so obvious now i type this ... i realy have a problem that when i read something i make assumptions that are wrong and take them to be true. you have to be a "zen master" not to do this.
i know for shure there are others who do. this is why i am happy there is a helping had here.
for all studying alone, my experience is that interacting here, exposes your wrong/dangerous assumptions.

thank you helping hands... hope to be one some day.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,612
  • Edited 4:10pm Sep 18, 2009 3:34pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting j-pax

fti wrote "about dancing: it's realy "feeling"the market pulse (market form) using charting"

because i was thinking PA IS the dance and i have to follow (wrong), i was confused.
correct me if i am wrong.... the dance is the steps i make and i have to listen to the music/watch the charts.
How you dance the markets song, is up to you.

Inserted Video


Just remember you can't lead
  • #10,613
  • Sep 18, 2009 7:05pm Sep 18, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting auxesis
@Fana,

You see how the Euro is stalled, I was looking for Euro to react and make a good break south out of the range, it has not so there's very little vertical directional movement to trade, dont like the current PA, leaving scout in atm below enrty, but will reassess when we move.
Thanks Auxesis,

Great chart & analyzing

have a good weekend.
  • #10,614
  • Sep 18, 2009 10:49pm Sep 18, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting auxesis
pulled my scout back out for the moment @17, lows are building north but still below 30 for the moment, it's about to get interesting everyone, wishing all good trades
Bases building north. Isn't it so obvious? I think it's a diversionary tactic.
The price will travel south
  • #10,615
  • Sep 18, 2009 10:56pm Sep 18, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting auxesis
@Fana,

You see how the Euro is stalled, I was looking for Euro to react and make a good break south out of the range, it has not so there's very little vertical directional movement to trade, dont like the current PA, leaving scout in atm below enrty, but will reassess when we move.

Twin objectives

Euro/Gbp pair dance is in progress. Let this dance be over and Euro should follows GBP south way but in a subdued manner .

Euro/GBp dance will help bust a lot of short sellers in Euro as well.
  • #10,616
  • Edited 10:33am Sep 19, 2009 8:50am | Edited 10:33am
Hi Friends,

Auxesis has had an interesting discussion here (and the following posts), that are worth reading ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=470

CU,
MaMood

edit: I do not want to judge about the correctness of this posting, but at least it is a good basis to think once again baout the psychology of the markets, the participants, who are playing the music for our dances ....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=501

and on more ...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=508
  • #10,617
  • Sep 19, 2009 11:10am Sep 19, 2009 11:10am
Wow great post MaMood. Thanks for sharing and thanks to the original posters. I need more real knowledge like that in my life.

P.S...Custom meta indi's crashed my brand new laptop on friday so im now officially naked DIE INDI'S DIE!!!
  • #10,618
  • Sep 19, 2009 12:07pm Sep 19, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting j-pax
about my thinking how MM dictates the dance (some experienced traders here said this)
Excuse me for butting in to this great thread without introductions but, from my understanding of this MO, MM does not dictate the dance, but the dance, and whether you are in step with it, will dictate the MM.
  • #10,619
  • Sep 19, 2009 1:29pm Sep 19, 2009 1:29pm
Amenti
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  • #10,620
  • Edited Sep 20, 2009 4:48am Sep 19, 2009 5:55pm | Edited Sep 20, 2009 4:48am
Quoting eaglesgift
Excuse me for butting in to this great thread without introductions but, from my understanding of this MO, MM does not dictate the dance, but the dance, and whether you are in step with it, will dictate the MM.
my FF or computer is acting realy strange so i hope i can post.

hi eaglesgift,i believe you and me understand this wrong....thanks to asking and the answer from auxesis (read his last reply to me)i believe the market/price is the "music" we should dance to.

if you do not understand please ask.greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
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