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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,761
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:39pm Sep 15, 2009 8:39pm
I realize what you`re saying Pharoah, but I`m still curious how many losses you can have in a row in the long term with 40% wins, 30% BE and 30% losses.......
  • #3,762
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:57pm Sep 15, 2009 8:57pm
Since we use the boxsize as a way to calculate the takeprofits, Has anybody tried using a stoploss that is based on the size of the box ? Instead of using a fixed stoploss of 30 or 50 pips, use something like Boxsize divided by 2 or 3. I was also thinking of doing something like that for the buffer aswell.
  • #3,763
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:02pm Sep 15, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting yonnie
I realize what you`re saying Pharoah, but I`m still curious how many losses you can have in a row in the long term with 40% wins, 30% BE and 30% losses.......
Well, this depends on the SL size, if you're going with 100% breakout zone, then you can have around 3-4 losses/BE's before 1 trade *might* break even.

With a reduced SL size, say 50%, you can have 6-8 losses/BE's before 1 trade *might* break even.

I must note, that this is only relative, what is NOT taken into consideration is the Box Size, if the loosing boxes are large, and the winning box is small, then you have to consider the R:R as it drops considerably.

As it stands, the average R:R for the original system is 1:4 risk:reward, this is because the trade has the potential to aquire 4 times the amount your willing to loose, but it doesn't always work out that way, sometimes it only pulls in 1:2, or 1:3, the math is all too complicated to get heavy into it, but the average is somewhere between 1:3 and 1:4 for the original system.
  • #3,764
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:12pm Sep 15, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting yonnie
hi FXLab,

six losing trades in a row: is that if only 1 trade a week is taken?
if not, how many losing trades if only 1 trade a week is taken?

what would be the maximum losing streak over 100,00 trades if only 1 trade per week with 40% wins?

do you take in account that some weeks are stopped out at BE and not at a loss?

what is the maximum losing streak if 40% win, 30% BE and 30% loss?

I`m thinking about a poster who wanted to double the lots after a losing trade........
Monte Carlo analysis is not based on actual trades - only on probabilities of a 40% win strategy. Trading 2 trades per week versus 1 trade per week will only expedite your profits/losses. The inputs are R:R and win/loss percentages. Looking at actual data may allow you to adjust these inputs, but so far they seem to be consistant with the current system trading experience. Changing your SL to BE and using different TP's will impact these inputs. As Ace has explained to us before: R:R determines whether or not we will be profitable in trading this system.
  • #3,765
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:26pm Sep 15, 2009 9:26pm
I am done for this week, my long trade is BE and I delete my sell order seem it is not a good week to trade again but just luck got a BE, not lossing money....

Wait for next week again...
  • #3,766
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:46pm Sep 15, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting Pharoah

And yen, I just plugged the reduced SL in ur head, your the one that ran with it, as far as I'm concerned, it's your thing, have at er
Hey Pharoah,

I planted the first seed for a SL reduction when I recommended the SL be set @ 50%. Sob, Sob...I get so little recognition...
  • #3,767
  • Sep 15, 2009 9:54pm Sep 15, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hey Pharoah,

I planted the first seed for a SL reduction when I recommended the SL be set @ 50%. Sob, Sob...I get so little recognition...
Ok, so you planted the seed, and I watered it lol. Didn't know anyone had suggested that before me.
  • #3,768
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:09pm Sep 15, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hey Pharoah,

I planted the first seed for a SL reduction when I recommended the SL be set @ 50%. Sob, Sob...I get so little recognition...
Quoting Pharoah
Ok, so you planted the seed, and I watered it lol. Didn't know anyone had suggested that before me.
That's right, Pharoah, I think what's-his-name is right. Oh, heck, sorry about that, Bobcat. I don't know why you worry about that recognition problem, although I always have had problems figuring out the difference between a bobcat and a lynx.

I do remember Bobcat mentioning the 50% SL a while back, then Pharoah brought up 15%, and then all I did was average the two more or less and came up with 30%.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,769
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:10pm Sep 15, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting Pharoah
Ok, so you planted the seed, and I watered it lol. Didn't know anyone had suggested that before me.
I just saw your trading journal listed in your signature. I just checked it out and you have removed all your posts...what's up with that?
  • #3,770
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:12pm Sep 15, 2009 10:12pm
And yet another new signature????Although I must admit, I like the sound of "Yen's Friend".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: My Buddy.jpg Size: 6 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,771
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:14pm Sep 15, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting yen44x
And yet another new signature????Although I must admit, I like the sound of "Yen's Friend".
Yeah it does have a nice ring to it, doesn't it?
  • #3,772
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:23pm Sep 15, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting wrenski
Yeah it does have a nice ring to it, doesn't it?
It does indeed . . . we go back to when Oz was still a wizard.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,773
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:47pm Sep 15, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting yen44x
That's right, Pharoah, I think what's-his-name is right. Oh, heck, sorry about that, Bobcat. I don't know why you worry about that recognition problem, although I always have had problems figuring out the difference between a bobcat and a lynx.

I do remember Bobcat mentioning the 50% SL a while back, then Pharoah brought up 15%, and then all I did was average the two more or less and came up with 30%.
  • #3,774
  • Sep 15, 2009 11:26pm Sep 15, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting wrenski
I just saw your trading journal listed in your signature. I just checked it out and you have removed all your posts...what's up with that?
I was doing a journal before I got a warning from the FF admins, it made me angry because my post was removed for one reason or another, this caused me to remove a large number of post's that I had made. It was an angry time, but for now I'm just removing it from my sig.
  • #3,775
  • Sep 15, 2009 11:32pm Sep 15, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting yen44x
I don't know why you worry about that recognition problem, although I always have had problems figuring out the difference between a bobcat and a lynx.
I don't think it's a recognition thing, it's more of a contributory thing.
  • #3,776
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:05am Sep 16, 2009 2:05am
Quoting yen44x
And yet another new signature????Although I must admit, I like the sound of "Yen's Friend".

I used to be a young sucessful trader with everything ahead of me

Then one day I was befreinded by this smooth talking mexican resident.
now look at me

Attached Image


So becareful Wrenski be VERY careful;
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #3,777
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:16am Sep 16, 2009 2:16am
Quoting Offshore
I used to be a young sucessful trader with everything ahead of me

Then one day I was befreinded by this smooth talking mexican resident.
now look at me

Attachment

So becareful Wrenski be VERY careful;
Damn it. Who found my picture.

dr
  • #3,778
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:21am Sep 16, 2009 3:21am
Somes here are going to wake up tomorow morning with a smile..

Perhaps, the threads soudainly will be spree tomorow morning too..

second short run with + 123,3 pips.. throught TP2 , (no more at this moment + 110..)

Enter this 3rd time with buf + 30 + sp

Hope tomorrow win for them with TP pending...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ace284 w38-09 3rd -short.gif Size: 104 KB
  • #3,779
  • Sep 16, 2009 4:14am Sep 16, 2009 4:14am
I know I have mentioned it before, but I use the 0:00 gmt candle for entry. Anyways lost the long position and the short has been triggered, up about 120 pips. Its subsequently broken the 149 level so this thing might get some legs to the downside. Stops at be now. My box size is right about 100 pips. Probably target tp3 due to the weekly atr sucking.
  • #3,780
  • Sep 16, 2009 4:56am Sep 16, 2009 4:56am
Hi, all along this threads everybody ask about time of these first candle.

I'm so surprise.. hour is not important

The set is, as I understand , the first 4h candle of the week, or the four first one hour, whenever the country you are, the market alway begin one time a week ...??
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