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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,741
  • Edited 2:21am Sep 15, 2009 2:06am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting iansr1
well my short hasnt been triggered? My short entry is at 149.78
Quoting iansr1
Well i am following the rules as set forward by ACE? I use a 20 pip buffer and the first 4 hour candle of the week?
What I meant was that the Short trade this week per Ace's chart was at 150.13 . . . yours was at 149.78, a 35-pip difference, so I thought maybe you had some different entry criteria.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,742
  • Edited 2:26am Sep 15, 2009 2:12am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting Offshore
That head and shoulder set up looks like my second wife. Anyway YEN I am keeping an eye on you and of course this pair, I did say it would go long this week, Just hope it goes Long time. I like the sytem as it's a set and forget. cheers
Quoting Offshore
I guess most of you are asleep on the other side of the world,


You were right in my case, offshore. I was asleep on this side of the world.But somehow, some way, I could feel your eyes on me and that was more than enough to wake me from a dead sleep.

Good to hear from you, old friend. You'll like this system . . . you're at the "set and forget" stage in life, right?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,743
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:03am Sep 15, 2009 3:03am
Hi Gents,

I haven't posted much here before, I'm very much a newbie in the FOREX world. I started out in mid June and since then have kept myself busy trying to learn as much as possible.


I just wanted to congratulate Ace on a great idea and strategy. I'll certainly be looking to join in discussion in the near future.

Best of luck.

John.
  • #3,744
  • Sep 15, 2009 5:44am Sep 15, 2009 5:44am
Hi Yen,
no nothing different i dont think? Just different broker, i use Go Trader in Australia.

Ian

Quoting yen44x
What I meant was that the Short trade this week per Ace's chart was at 150.13 . . . yours was at 149.78, a 35-pip difference, so I thought maybe you had some different entry criteria.
  • #3,745
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:46am Sep 15, 2009 6:46am
SL hit also in Long Position... 4 bad weeks... SL hit in both directions... Our account are going down... Hope next week will be the week!!!

Now, we have 3 days off to backtest new systems...
  • #3,746
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:58am Sep 15, 2009 6:58am
i use different approach to re-enter:

for the first trade, i set TP=1.5. If it's hit, then i will stay away, no more trade.

If it's not hit and a reversal 4hr pin bar appear, I cut the loss, and trade the reversal.

This morning I won the long reversal (entry = 150.40) and then the short reversal (entry = 151.17).

That's sort of combining both Ace's and NickB's method.


Quoting lugarejo
SL hit also in Long Position... 4 bad weeks... SL hit in both directions... Our account are going down... Hope next week will be the week!!!

Now, we have 3 days off to backtest new systems...
  • #3,747
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:38am Sep 15, 2009 7:38am
Quoting iansr1
Hi Yen,
no nothing different i dont think? Just different broker, i use Go Trader in Australia.

Ian
Ah, that explains it. Good for you . . . it saved you from one ugly trade this week.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,748
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:48am Sep 15, 2009 7:48am
Well to be honest i had planned not to trade anyway, i am going to patiently wait until the market sorts itself out.


Quoting yen44x
Ah, that explains it. Good for you . . . it saved you from one ugly trade this week.
  • #3,749
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:37am Sep 15, 2009 10:37am
Based on the current system rules, we've had six loosing trades in a row as of this week. Using a Monte Carlo analysis of a 40% win strategy we can expect an average loosing streak of 9 trades (based on 100,000 trades). I hope everyone is controlling their risk appropriately so they can stay in the game.
  • #3,750
  • Sep 15, 2009 12:19pm Sep 15, 2009 12:19pm
Meanwhile - as we lick our wounds and wait - still with confidence it'll turn around as we watch the exodus of the newbees who are by now convinced this system sucks, I am planning on running down to Mexico and find out where Yen lives for the sole purpose of coercing him to start posting his thoughts and replies on every other thread here in the forum, all of which Lord knows, desperately needs his never ending sense of humor and enlightenment!

Shouldn't be too hard to find exactly where he's living. All one has to do is look for a whole bunch of burros wearing skirts! And once Shiko returns Yen won't be able to get a word in edgewise anyway.
  • #3,751
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:41pm Sep 15, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting Flamenco143
Meanwhile - as we lick our wounds and wait - still with confidence it'll turn around as we watch the exodus of the newbees who are by now convinced this system sucks

That would most likely be why the thread is so quiet, alot of the newbies that came in with 1 question post's about how the system works think the system just doesn't work, no Shiko here.. overall a slow month in here.
  • #3,752
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:26pm Sep 15, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting Offshore
I guess most of you are asleep on the other side of the world, but I think here we go we are climbing.
I have two lots the first lot at TP1 and the second with a trailing stop about the same size as the first target if that makes sense

Why OH why did you wake up look what you have done to my trades
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #3,753
  • Edited 5:11pm Sep 15, 2009 4:04pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting Flamenco143
I am planning on running down to Mexico and find out where Yen lives for the sole purpose of coercing him to start posting his thoughts and replies on every other thread here in the forum, all of which Lord knows, desperately needs his never ending sense of humor and enlightenment!
I don't normally share how I'm able to live down here in Mexico, but FF actually pays me to NOT post on any other threads. I'd honestly love to ruin other threads as well, but, hey, I need the income considering what's happened to our beloved system the past few weeks.

BTW, I notice you're retired law enforcement. Just about my whole family is in law enforcement in the U.S. That's another reason I'm down here . . . I'm very proud of them, but I guess you could say I'm the "black burro" of the family.

Quoting Flamenco143
Shouldn't be too hard to find exactly where he's living. All one has to do is look for a whole bunch of burros wearing skirts!
I thought that was on a strictly need-to-know basis. Was it Wrenski or Offshore who leaked the info to you? BTW, if you're coming down, phone ahead for the Daily Special, but don't tell anyone else.

Quoting Flamenco143
And once Shiko returns Yen won't be able to get a word in edgewise anyway.
Of all the predictions ever posted on FF, this is the only one that's absolutely guaranteed. Yikes, 16 days until October and the return of you-know-who.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,754
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:31pm Sep 15, 2009 4:31pm
So result :

2 trades. 2 x 2 pos on G/Y.

* 1st is short : 2 pos loss - 74 = - 148

* 2nd is long : 1 pos win TP1 = + 51
2 SL BE +buf = + 20

--------------------------------------- W38 at this moment - 77.

Going to look at this evening.

As Droland proposed if I remember ( not exactly the same, but the mean is the same) , perhaps to put a pending order at TP2 each side.

if the market start, it'll go after TP2 too no ?, and like this we'll be able to come back in the race, if it continue to range, we'll be outside during this time ..
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls W38 - ACE284-V03.xls   58 KB | 488 downloads
  • #3,755
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:38pm Sep 15, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting yen44x
I thought that was on a strictly need-to-know basis. Was it Wrenski or Offshore who leaked the info to you?
Actually, word has even reach up here in Arizona about the 'crazy gringo' who drinks so much Negra Modelo that their stock has gone up 36% just in the last 2 months.

Hmmm -maybe the money's to be made in investing in that beer stock instead of the forex!
  • #3,756
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:55pm Sep 15, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting yen44x
Of all the predictions ever posted on FF, this is the only one that's absolutely guaranteed. Yikes, 16 days until October and the return of you-know-who.
i must thank yen for proposing narrow SL that's perfectly suitable for these weeks ranging.

why am i so tragic? i know there will be a break soon in october or novermber, but i'm not sure if my capital can sustain such string of losses week after week.

if i'd started trading this from May or even July, that's a different story, a good-looking one......
  • #3,757
  • Sep 15, 2009 5:06pm Sep 15, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting charvo
i must thank yen for proposing narrow SL that's perfectly suitable for these weeks ranging.

why am i so tragic? i know there will be a break soon in october or novermber, but i'm not sure if my capital can sustain such string of losses week after week.

if i'd started trading this from May or even July, that's a different story, a good-looking one......
Hi,

my way when a system is turning wrong :

- Looking if some variables has to be changed

- if not, like here, because it is the normal life's story of a trend follow system, I divise my pos by2 or 4 to not loss to much but to stay in the race.

Sure the probleme is that the first start is a big one, but they'll have other one and like this I'm still alive..
  • #3,758
  • Sep 15, 2009 5:26pm Sep 15, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting charvo
i must thank yen for proposing narrow SL that's perfectly suitable for these weeks ranging. why am i so tragic? i know there will be a break soon in october or novermber, but i'm not sure if my capital can sustain such string of losses week after week.
Don't thank me . . . there were a number of others who proposed the idea first. I just stole the idea and talked about it so much that now people think I had something to do with it.

I'm hoping the break comes before October or November, but who knows. If you need more capital, come to Mexico City . . . it's one of the largest capitals in the world. Oh wait, I'm thinking of "capitol". I always confuse those two words.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,759
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:43pm Sep 15, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting FXLab
Based on the current system rules, we've had six loosing trades in a row as of this week. Using a Monte Carlo analysis of a 40% win strategy we can expect an average loosing streak of 9 trades (based on 100,000 trades). I hope everyone is controlling their risk appropriately so they can stay in the game.
hi FXLab,

six losing trades in a row: is that if only 1 trade a week is taken?
if not, how many losing trades if only 1 trade a week is taken?

what would be the maximum losing streak over 100,00 trades if only 1 trade per week with 40% wins?

do you take in account that some weeks are stopped out at BE and not at a loss?

what is the maximum losing streak if 40% win, 30% BE and 30% loss?

I`m thinking about a poster who wanted to double the lots after a losing trade........
  • #3,760
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:31pm Sep 15, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting yonnie
hi FXLab,

six losing trades in a row: is that if only 1 trade a week is taken?
if not, how many losing trades if only 1 trade a week is taken?

what would be the maximum losing streak over 100,00 trades if only 1 trade per week with 40% wins?

do you take in account that some weeks are stopped out at BE and not at a loss?

what is the maximum losing streak if 40% win, 30% BE and 30% loss?

I`m thinking about a poster who wanted to double the lots after a losing trade........

doubling money per trade with this system is a sure way to completely consume your entire investment, because, if you double per trade, and a week has 4 trades before it wins, well that trade isn't going to compensate the entire loss, especially when you consider that we've had 3 loosing weeks in a row now, unless you were fortunate to catch that huge jump in week 1, we're on a 4th week of loss thus far, if the major breakout occurs next week on the first trade, then it's normal lot size, which will NOT make up for even a portion of the loss from the 3 weeks gone and current week.

And yen, I just plugged the reduced SL in ur head, your the one that ran with it, as far as I'm concerned, it's your thing, have at er
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