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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #3,301
  • Sep 14, 2009 5:05pm Sep 14, 2009 5:05pm
My understanding of EW is that EW method was not created to predict every price movement in the market. And it’s impossible. The markets simply do not show EW patterns all the time.

But the markets do present EW patterns perhaps in 40% or 50% of the situations. And that’s enough. To me, even 25% of the time is already good enough to gain on the markets with it. No single TA method as I know to be as effective as EW method so far. The key for applying EW seems to be, we need to tell when the market presents a clear EW pattern, and when it’s not; thereby we know when to take action and when to stay on the sidelines.
  • #3,302
  • Sep 14, 2009 5:13pm Sep 14, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
My understanding of EW is that EW method was not created to predict every price movement in the market. And it’s impossible. The markets simply do not show EW patterns all the time.

[color=black][font=Verdana]But the markets do present EW patterns perhaps in 40% or 50% of the situations. And that’s enough. To me, even 25% of the time is already good enough to gain on the markets with it. No single TA method as I know to be as effective as EW method so far. The key for applying EW seems to be, we need to...

That's right, Robert Miner says that market moves in 50% according to Elliott Wave Theory and I agree with that . That is why I don't try to label every move, only move which could looks like EW...
  • #3,303
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:03pm Sep 14, 2009 6:03pm
the market moves 50% according what EW count think but with EW theory it moves 100% ( Jeffrey Kennedy (substance of his words))
  • #3,304
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:08pm Sep 14, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting magictrader
That's right, Robert Miner says that market moves in 50% according to Elliott Wave Theory and I agree with that . That is why I don't try to label every move, only move which could looks like EW...
Yep, I read that. His style is very practical.

What you guys think about the USDJPY daily chart? It seems to me it has a fair chance to be up for the next few days or longer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy2009-09-14daily.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #3,305
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:33pm Sep 14, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
Yep, I read that. His style is very practical.

What you guys think about the USDJPY daily chart? It seems to me it has a fair chance to be up for the next few days or longer.
Hi ridingwaves2

It is here before five days:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3228
  • #3,306
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:33pm Sep 14, 2009 8:33pm
Thanks for the chart Yellah.

I picked up some today because I thought the price reached a bottom
yesterday. It seems my timing was a little better than yours
USDJPY may still fluctuate in the range today or tomorrow. But I hope it will
be trending up for the next few days at least.
  • #3,307
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:00am Sep 15, 2009 1:00am
Then how do you know where to start counting, if you don't label the previous wave? The right point is not always the top or bottom, you know...


Quoting magictrader
That's right, Robert Miner says that market moves in 50% according to Elliott Wave Theory and I agree with that . That is why I don't try to label every move, only move which could looks like EW...
  • #3,308
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:38am Sep 15, 2009 2:38am
Quoting Rocroy
Then how do you know where to start counting, if you don't label the previous wave? The right point is not always the top or bottom, you know...
Actually you dont have to label the previous trend/wave and many times the right point is the top/bottom. You can have a logical wave expectation using EW patterns in isolation without being needed to count anything.

Example, I am only trading waves 3/C of an initial move down, so what I do is wait for a longer trend to develop then WAIT for an initial move down (impulsive) to develop, then WAIT more for a clear 3-wave correction following this iniatial move, then enter the market if it allows, expecting a wave 3/C to follow. Using only this part of EW to trade there is no need to count anything, it is straightforward, I only use "initial impulse move down followed by a 3-wave correction". No contracting/expanding triangles, complex corrections, truncated 5ths etc.
See attached live chart, it doesnt get much better that this, it can fail and take out the high but it can also mean the start of a new and prolnged down trend. Compare the probabilties.

In the end everyone uses EW whatever he wants, I simply dont see the use of counting every wiggle in the market. Better to extract one or two high probability EW patterns, make a trading plan around it and wait for those only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 41 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #3,309
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:44am Sep 15, 2009 3:44am
Quoting soso
Actually you dont have to label the previous trend/wave and many times the right point is the top/bottom. You can have a logical wave expectation using EW patterns in isolation without being needed to count anything.

Example, I am only trading waves 3/C of an initial move down, so what I do is wait for a longer trend to develop then WAIT for an initial move down (impulsive) to develop, then WAIT more for a clear 3-wave correction following this iniatial move, then enter the market if it allows, expecting a wave 3/C to follow. Using only this part...

Well said Soso!

Wave 3 or C is the best wave to trade and no need to fight hard to count every move of the market.. look for 5s and 3s and trade it.

You got a clear plan Soso!
  • #3,310
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:52am Sep 15, 2009 4:52am
The best waves patterns for trading :

1- Ending diagonal
2- Flat
3- Zigzag

I will explain it later...
  • #3,311
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:00am Sep 15, 2009 6:00am
Quoting yallah wave
The best waves patterns for trading :

1- Ending diagonal
2- Flat
3- Zigzag

I will explain it later...
Interesting...

Will wait for you
  • #3,312
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:06am Sep 15, 2009 6:06am
hi

5waves impulse in Eur/Gbp hourly Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #3,313
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:20am Sep 15, 2009 6:20am
Quoting Blue bottle
hi

5waves impulse in Eur/Gbp hourly Chart
and on daily .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg_d1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #3,314
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:31am Sep 15, 2009 6:31am
Quoting magictrader
and on daily .

Hi Magictrader,

Here is my daily and H4 chart.

I am totally agree with ur count.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp daily.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h4.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #3,315
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:45am Sep 15, 2009 7:45am
USDJPY(30-min) update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-09-15 USDJPY (30M).png Size: 36 KB
  • #3,316
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:05am Sep 15, 2009 8:05am
I am not expecting much more upside on the eurusd. The pair can be counted as an expanding diagonal, an ending pattern. These diagonals move in 3's. We can already see an abc pattern up. I would wait from here for more confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 09109-daily.jpg Size: 42 KB
Attached Image
  • #3,317
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:28am Sep 15, 2009 8:28am
Quoting Ilovepippin
I am not expecting much more upside on the eurusd. The pair can be counted as an expanding diagonal, an ending pattern. These diagonals move in 3's. We can already see an abc pattern up. I would wait from here for more confirmation.
That is nice .
I'm waiting for EU collapse with falling stock market and oil prices and rising USD.
Crisis round two.
  • #3,318
  • Sep 15, 2009 8:39am Sep 15, 2009 8:39am
Quoting soso
...See attached live chart, it doesnt get much better that this, it can fail and take out the high but it can also mean the start of a new and prolnged down trend. Compare the probabilties.
...
And a few hours later. As I said it doesnt get much better than this. Of course it doesnt always working as nice as today.
At this point protect 1st half and the 2nd half keep it in case of a prolonged down trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 17 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #3,319
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:09am Sep 15, 2009 10:09am
Hello guys,i have one chart for you

Please Correct me if i am wrong ,and please post GPB USD 1h...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.JPG Size: 110 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #3,320
  • Sep 15, 2009 12:28pm Sep 15, 2009 12:28pm
I opened buy GBP USD at 1.6450 Sl 50 pips


Look picture with Fibo Arc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD4h.JPG Size: 112 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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