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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #21
  • Nov 15, 2005 2:51pm Nov 15, 2005 2:51pm
Quoting fx-trader777
But may be my question is dumb question but why lower 8 SMA is 0.7495. I understand why upper 55 is 0.7515 because the highest price is 0.7515 in this period but lower price where 8 Sma goes is 0.7500. Please can you clarify it for me?
Hi 777,
I'm not sure I understand your question. I don't know what you mean when you say that the 8 sma price goes to .7500.

I'm sorry I don't understand your question. There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers :

I've made some notes on your chart to clarify how the boundaries are calculated. Only the SMA values are used. Price is not used in the calculations.

Read Team Aphid's explanation in my earlier post as to why price is ignored.

If you still don't understand, just ask again.

Thanks

Dial
Attached Image
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #22
  • Nov 15, 2005 6:32pm Nov 15, 2005 6:32pm
Quoting Isotonic
from the tunnel profile...have i picked out a signal on the 4h?

http://img494.imageshack.us/img494/4...ekly9gw.th.gif

http://img494.imageshack.us/img494/6861/4h8il.th.gif
Hey Iso,

Best as I can tell I you missed it by one bar. I'm glad you scribbled up your chart.... I havent paid much attention to "pendant and consolidation action" as it relates to momentum...duh. still I think its a cool xover set up.

profit taking calculations are dynamic and recalculated every bar

I scribbled one up for ya below

HJ
Attached Image
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #23
  • Nov 15, 2005 11:03pm Nov 15, 2005 11:03pm
Quoting diallist
Hi 777,
I'm not sure I understand your question. I don't know what you mean when you say that the 8 sma price goes to .7500.

I'm sorry I don't understand your question. There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers :

I've made some notes on your chart to clarify how the boundaries are calculated. Only the SMA values are used. Price is not used in the calculations.

Read Team Aphid's explanation in my earlier post as to why price is ignored.

If you still don't understand, just ask again.

Thanks

Dial

thanks for clarifying for me. Now I understand why 8SMA is 0.7495

thanks again
kiss the trend
  • #24
  • Nov 16, 2005 2:36am Nov 16, 2005 2:36am
Thankx HJ - Looks like I haven't grasped the finer points of this system yet. I'll reread all this thread again.

Are those indicators I sent any good? They should help to visually capture the falling or rising momentum between two MAs (like any good MACD should do). I took the MACD code and modified it for this system. Also I spotted a bug on the 4h code - change an EMA to SMA during the calculation near the end.

Quoting HeavyJ
Hey Iso,

Best as I can tell I you missed it by one bar. I'm glad you scribbled up your chart.... I havent paid much attention to "pendant and consolidation action" as it relates to momentum...duh. still I think its a cool xover set up.

profit taking calculations are dynamic and recalculated every bar

I scribbled one up for ya below

HJ
  • #25
  • Edited Nov 17, 2005 12:38pm Nov 16, 2005 4:20am | Edited Nov 17, 2005 12:38pm
Hey guys,

Try this.

Dial
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sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #26
  • Nov 16, 2005 4:23am Nov 16, 2005 4:23am
Quoting diallist
Hey guys,

Try this.

Dial
Great explanation!
Steven
  • #27
  • Nov 16, 2005 5:27am Nov 16, 2005 5:27am
Hello guys, can someone explain to me what the "PF" is? It is mentioned several times in this thread.
  • #28
  • Nov 16, 2005 5:43am Nov 16, 2005 5:43am
I can't get Meta 4 to work right,

Just got it with IBFX- This one is live for micros--can't use it Keeps freezing up and shit.

Meta 3.82 runs like a damn clock, I don't get it. Playin with customs were one of the reasons I wanted to get Version 4. Now they got all my coke bottle money. that's ok I havent seen an entry for a while.

Your indies looked pretty good The tracked the Cross pretty nice and I like the flip on the greater trend.(weekly)

Now, how am I gonna get an oscillator to monitor the weekly chart stuff at the bottom of my 4hr chart. I really only have been checking that chart weekly and applying an corresponding arrow indicator on the 4 hr...

Anywho. things are gettin choppy, cables droppin like a rock.......its 6:45 and I gotta go fix the toilets!

Stay in touch
hj

Quoting Isotonic
Thankx HJ - Looks like I haven't grasped the finer points of this system yet. I'll reread all this thread again.

Are those indicators I sent any good? They should help to visually capture the falling or rising momentum between two MAs (like any good MACD should do). I took the MACD code and modified it for this system. Also I spotted a bug on the 4h code - change an EMA to SMA during the calculation near the end.
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #29
  • Nov 16, 2005 6:27am Nov 16, 2005 6:27am
Quoting diallist
Hey guys,

Try this.

Dial
Dial thanx so much for contributing to this discussion. Yes that was kewl.

I won't begin to describe the boneheaded, convoluted way I was getting to the same result.

You have so much invested in your studies and have been plugged into this line of thinking far longer than the rest of us. So I for one am ready to pick up any scraps that might fall off your table.

I hope we can get into the Knife on the PF soon. James' post yesterday on Jan. release was in a sense disappointing. In another way it should help tame the angst and anticipation vibe which was really boiling!

Once again,
Thanx so much for sharing in this thread, you have already enriched those of us who are interested in the merits of the "original system" and have warned us of important pit falls.

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #30
  • Edited 3:41pm Nov 16, 2005 3:28pm | Edited 3:41pm
I would be very careful with the tunnel method, when I first read about it online I got excited, especially with the author's backtesting results. I plugged it into TradeStation however, and found they forgot to mention many of the losses the system had, and overall the system lost money due to the chop around the tunnel. The 4hr, the 1hr, daily, I tried all the combinations and the various iterations of the different tunnel systems, none of them could produce stable profits. They'd have a few really huge wins, and a lot of littles losses that would dwarf the gains. Plug this in and backtest it on any number of pairs and you'll find results are the same. It sounds great on paper, but in reality it falls quite short.

-Aksel
  • #31
  • Edited 5:13pm Nov 16, 2005 4:08pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting BobMM
I would be very careful with the tunnel method, when I first read about it online I got excited, especially with the author's backtesting results. I plugged it into TradeStation however, and found they forgot to mention many of the losses the system had, and overall the system lost money due to the chop around the tunnel. The 4hr, the 1hr, daily, I tried all the combinations and the various iterations of the different tunnel systems, none of them could produce stable profits. They'd have a few really huge wins, and a lot of littles losses that would dwarf the gains. Plug this in and backtest it on any number of pairs and you'll find results are the same. It sounds great on paper, but in reality it falls quite short.

-Aksel
yes, the 1 hr had a problem with chop around the tunnel. the 4hr is not a "tunnel" system so to speak as the 1hr. it was developed to address the chop issue. i have rarely seen a more stable profit system than the 4hr tunnel. at least that has been my results so far. i have been trading it on daily/1hr charts in addition to the way it was designed. when combined with price action and dials adjustments it has the potential to be one of the best systems i have ever seen, and i have seen a bunch. one of the neat things about charles section in the pf will be the ability for subscribers to participate in the ongoing developement of the system. i plan to spend a lot of my time in charles section for this very reason. personally i have moved many of my trading systems to the rear for a while and am concentrating on this system. it can be tweaked in a variety of ways and if the tweaks keep making it better it could reach great status, and i dont throw that term around loosely. i have rarely been as excited about a system as i am this one. if entry risk and timing issues can be resolved it will be outstanding. only time will tell. the process should be fun because i am having great success with it already. my ideas and fine tuning are totally seperate from charles and when the time is right in the pf i will submit my findings to charles and subscribers for thier review and embelishment. as i said its going to be a lot of fun to see where this can go. you may have heard charles speak of team aphid, i was a part of this team so my opinions and understanding of this system goes deeper than just reading the material. no offense at you bob im sure your results were what they were. im just having good success with this system or variations thereof and throwing in my opinion. jim
  • #32
  • Nov 16, 2005 10:22pm Nov 16, 2005 10:22pm
Quoting james16
yes, the 1 hr had a problem with chop around the tunnel. the 4hr is not a "tunnel" system so to speak as the 1hr. it was developed to address the chop issue. i have rarely seen a more stable profit system than the 4hr tunnel. at least that has been my results so far. i have been trading it on daily/1hr charts in addition to the way it was designed. when combined with price action and dials adjustments it has the potential to be one of the best systems i have ever seen, and i have seen a bunch. one of the neat things about charles section in the pf will be the ability for subscribers to participate in the ongoing developement of the system. i plan to spend a lot of my time in charles section for this very reason. personally i have moved many of my trading systems to the rear for a while and am concentrating on this system. it can be tweaked in a variety of ways and if the tweaks keep making it better it could reach great status, and i dont throw that term around loosely. i have rarely been as excited about a system as i am this one. if entry risk and timing issues can be resolved it will be outstanding. only time will tell. the process should be fun because i am having great success with it already. my ideas and fine tuning are totally seperate from charles and when the time is right in the pf i will submit my findings to charles and subscribers for thier review and embelishment. as i said its going to be a lot of fun to see where this can go. you may have heard charles speak of team aphid, i was a part of this team so my opinions and understanding of this system goes deeper than just reading the material. no offense at you bob im sure your results were what they were. im just having good success with this system or variations thereof and throwing in my opinion. jim
What an excellent reply Jim! You said it so well. Would that I were half as good at getting my point across sometimes!

Jim, you said:

Quote
one of the neat things about charles section in the pf will be the ability for subscribers to participate in the ongoing developement of the system
I think this will be the most fun and exciting part of my section of the PF! I don't consider myself a super guru trader, and I certainly don't have all the answers. So, I am looking forward to the constructive interaction of the subscribers to make the already good Knife system even better, as Jim said.

But, it isn't necessary to wait until the PF opens to begin. HeavyJ and Isotonic have both provided links in this thread to the original vegas tunnel 4h model. If you have any questions or ideas, post them in this thread and we can all have a go at it. For those of you planning on joining the PF, I want to assure you that whatever happens in this thread will not detract from my part of the PF. That is because the value of the PF will be in the ongoing personal support, encouragement and group camraderie, moreso than the formal tutorial I'm putting together, or future systems I may add.

And who knows! Some of you may suggest an improvement that may find its way into my tutorial as a permanent feature. Credit given where due of course!

Profitable Trading All

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #33
  • Nov 16, 2005 11:19pm Nov 16, 2005 11:19pm
A note/warning: that Moneytec thread begins with a discussion of the 1 Hour Tunnel, and quickly morphs to a highly modified version for 5 minute charts. Most of the discussion is probably not relevent to the 4 Hour Tunnel or closer modifications such as the Knife (though of course I don't know all the details of the Knife)...Just thought I may save someone the time of reading 60+ pages of discussion.



Quoting Isotonic
Nicely done dial!

Also have a look at these sites:

http://www.freewebs.com/mswilson/ (the code might come in useful)

Also there is a long discussion on Strategybuilderfx, register first and then follow this thread.
  • #34
  • Nov 16, 2005 11:49pm Nov 16, 2005 11:49pm
Quoting FXLogic
A note/warning: that Moneytec thread begins with a discussion of the 1 Hour Tunnel, and quickly morphs to a highly modified version for 5 minute charts. Most of the discussion is probably not relevent to the 4 Hour Tunnel or closer modifications such as the Knife (though of course I don't know all the details of the Knife)...Just thought I may save someone the time of reading 60+ pages of discussion.
Thanks FXLogic for the warning. The info may be good or bad, I don't know. But I do know that a 5 minute discussion is not relevant to the 4 hour model or derivatives such as the knife. For myself, I have found that longer time frames are more profitable. That's why I stayed with the 4 hour time frame. I'd rather pick $5s and $10s off the sidewalk than nickles and dimes. And, I'll really be interested to see Jim's daily version when he's ready to share it. Might be able to pick up $50s and $100s then! Less stooping, more money. What's not to like.

Take care FXLogic!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #35
  • Nov 17, 2005 2:55am Nov 17, 2005 2:55am
Yeah from the first page it quickly dropped into smaller timeframes which kinda disappoints but I'll need to spend some time working through all the pages before I make a judgement.

Quoting FXLogic
A note/warning: that Moneytec thread begins with a discussion of the 1 Hour Tunnel, and quickly morphs to a highly modified version for 5 minute charts. Most of the discussion is probably not relevent to the 4 Hour Tunnel or closer modifications such as the Knife (though of course I don't know all the details of the Knife)...Just thought I may save someone the time of reading 60+ pages of discussion.
  • #36
  • Nov 17, 2005 2:59am Nov 17, 2005 2:59am
I was also thinking perhaps a daily & weekly or monthly combination by tweaking all the parameters.

The code should speed things up during development. I didn't like the colour schemes so thats the first thing to go!

The mechanical filtering and simplistic rules I find appealing so I could possibly follow this for intraday as well.

Well its back to the research lab for this one.

(PS: This is where Merlin's stuff on system dev should kick in!)
  • #37
  • Nov 17, 2005 3:55am Nov 17, 2005 3:55am
Quoting BobMM
I would be very careful with the tunnel method, when I first read about it online I got excited, especially with the author's backtesting results. I plugged it into TradeStation however, and found they forgot to mention many of the losses the system had, and overall the system lost money due to the chop around the tunnel.
Hi Aksel,

Very curious post, It would be important to know if you included all filters in your TS model such as the 50 pip rule Dial talked about earlier. (EUR/USD is in that zone right now and looks a bit suicidal).

Your results are suprising to me, Take a look at how Team Vegas handled losses in the analisys sec.

Quote


  2. IV.ANALYSIS





The following spreadsheet gives a rough idea of what kind of profitability you are looking at using the 4 Hour Momentum Tunnel Method. It is very important to realize what assumptions we used in calculating these numbers. The criteria was as follows:

    1. 1)Any trade that looked like less than 100 pips profit we totally ignored,
    2. 2)When taking profits we ignored fib numbers from the market price and instead used the 8 SMA line if it hit a fib number. We did this because it was much easier to calculate and took far less time than analyzing each bar on every chart with every pair. Note though, that this REDUCES profitability tremendously over time. The market is much more likely to hit fib numbers than the 8 SMA.
    3. 3)Any trade that looked like a scratch or a loss, we treated as a loss, and
    4. 4)After we summed up all the periods we DOUBLED the losses,
    5. 5)We used 3 units on most trades, except 1 ½ units on trades where the 8 SMA changed slope and did not cross the 55 SMA. This trading signal is somewhat less powerful than the original, so we reduced size accordingly.

TEAM VEGAS


They treated 100 pip gains as losses? They doubled actual losses.

Just curious how closely your backtesting followed all the rules of the system'
You may have nailed it I don't know.

I will say that I dismissed the 1hr tunnel for me because of the chop..Looks ulcerous!

Thanx for you input
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #38
  • Nov 17, 2005 4:47am Nov 17, 2005 4:47am
The moneytec thread, although a fairly good system is really nothing to do with the tunnel system, it is an intraday system trading only the start of the US session (generally trading the 8.30 news release when high volume is present and other system rules are in place.

Not a bad system but not the Tunnel, the thread title is a misnomer.
  • #39
  • Nov 17, 2005 5:33am Nov 17, 2005 5:33am
Hey Man,

I think I got MT4 cooking. I want to get into the programming aspects. sure looks Daunting. I was curious The classic MACD is based on EMAS can that be changed?

I liked the flip effect that your custom MACD had but elected not to use it so My focus would remain up in the Chart Action...BUT.......I was think'n...Uh Ohh

A very useful MACD type histogram for the 4hr chart might be this:

There are 42 4hr periods in one week

so would it be possible to develope a histogram that based on

42 x 55 EMA (HL)/2 = 882 EMA (HL)/2 (slow)
&
42 x 5 SMA Close = 210 SMA Close (fast)

Would'nt this kinda juxtapose the weekly chart data on the 4hr charts in real time and provide a "ballpark" indicator of the weekly chart data on the 4hr.

I can think of a bunch a stuff this would be helpful with

Let me know what you think.......may just be a Bonehead idea!

And after all...... you were probably lookin for something else to do any way right?

Thanx
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #40
  • Edited 1:31pm Nov 17, 2005 7:36am | Edited 1:31pm
I've edit this to remove my misreading of the original spec.

Still the MACD is general enough for to work on any timeframe.

Quoting HeavyJ
Hey Man,

I think I got MT4 cooking. I want to get into the programming aspects. sure looks Daunting. I was curious The classic MACD is based on EMAS can that be changed?

I liked the flip effect that your custom MACD had but elected not to use it so My focus would remain up in the Chart Action...BUT.......I was think'n...Uh Ohh

A very useful MACD type histogram for the 4hr chart might be this:

There are 42 4hr periods in one week

so would it be possible to develope a histogram that based on

42 x 55 EMA (HL)/2 = 882 EMA (HL)/2 (slow)
&
42 x 5 SMA Close = 210 SMA Close (fast)

Would'nt this kinda juxtapose the weekly chart data on the 4hr charts in real time and provide a "ballpark" indicator of the weekly chart data on the 4hr.

I can think of a bunch a stuff this would be helpful with

Let me know what you think.......may just be a Bonehead idea!

And after all...... you were probably lookin for something else to do any way right?

Thanx
HJ
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