What do I think

http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/

Today UK Manufacturing PMI would be perfect for short trade in case of worst than expected data. However asian session created quite plain decreasing channel [30min chart]. If at the moment of release price was at the bottom of it I would stay away.
Best scenario would be if before the news price will rise above 1.6460 there would be over 70 pips room for short move on bad news.

If data released was positivly suprising, I would trade long only if price was low enough [1.64 or lower].

Neutral data or some unusual price action before the news will definetly keep me off trading.

In terms of "predicting the past" I'd like to post a bit of comment on what did I predicted in relation with what happened exactly.
As UK Manufacturing PMI did not surprise me [merely higher than expected] I did not open the trade. Additionally as you can see on chart [firs yellow vertical line] price at the time of news was somewhere in a middle of mentioned in previous post channel what additionally discouraged me from any action.

What is definitely worth of attention is that my trading plan worked perfectly on US Pending Home sale [second line]. Of course now it's just looking back with no trading value, however I'm quite proud of it as this made me a bit more concerned that GBP is simply not worth anything more than 1.66. So just to feed my ego. There was GU over 1.6460 [1.6530], news was quite bad for investors, what drove GU down 50 pips within an hour.
As I'm writing it it's already Thursday after non-farm payroll, and I can see that GU plunged even further, but it would be far too much to point any relation between that and my predictions.

And here's the chart for you:

CHART IS HERE

Halifax HPI is about to be released.
As GBPUSD shows not much power of going too far neither up nor down I would be interested in long position on good UK news, however...

read more...

If you prefer to have this text on a black background it's how I keep it on my blog:
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com

As there was no big surprise on Halifax HPI I did not trade it. GU as expected didn't even touched 1.6160, what fits my bearish sentiment on this pair. However this week I expect at least one green day on this pair, it's hard to say would that be tommorow or Friday.

To make thing easier to follow I decided to revitalise fx-tool concept, where you can see charts for different news releases. I will upload more charts soon, however you can now see one for Halifax here

You may also enjoy my new concept
fx-tool.blogspot.com
where I keep chart screenshots that make it easier to follow news price action, what you may find usefull.

Same article with black background, click here

Just after I wrote about one green day before end of a week, Thursday showed nearly 300 pips gains on GU. To e honest I didn't expect that much but in other hand I did not expect this pair to rise higher than 1.64, therefore I see depreciation for the pair for today.

Both UK PPI and US Trade Balance might be good triggers for shorting GU, especially if pair will be at the top of channel at the news time. My trading direction however will be short only if pair won't start to penetrate 1.64 area again, or break it. If that will happen, both direction are possible.

Additionally I would not expect GU to unfold another 300 pips jump, therefore if pair will run that far I will suspend all my predictions till sunday.

I will attach a picture later today, and post another message to let you know

I have just posted charts ilustrating what I wrote on post above:
http://docs.google.com/View?id=dgfdhsg7_60hstwp6gs

BLOG update:

Will sell UJ @ 94 if Building permits will be as expected or worse

Same article you can read on my blog here:
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com

The point is that under current market circumstances thtere is possible strong breakout either up or down, and it's most likely to happen during news release. However in other hand there is much more likely that neither approaching UK MPC Meeting Minutes nor any other tommorow or day after tommorow data will trigger such break out. Personally I do expect breakout to occure and I do expect not to get into bigest move of all. However awarnes of inevitability of such move I am alredy prepared to know what will happen just after. And that's the point of trading.

So nearest data releases should rather bring another bounc trade oportunities and eventually one that establish new direction for USD pairs. It's important to keep significant levels in mind to not get sweaped by such move.

MPC Meeting Minutes for the first time from two months will be published with no any other significant data released at the same time. There should be no big surprise on it. That is possible that black swan hunters will buy some pounds before the news, what may cause spike just after release [no matter what exact data will be]. My idea is to trade highly doyable trendline based on lower lows on recent 30M chart. It would be the best to keep some tiny Take Profit @ 1.6385 to cover possible losses. If price will manage to break lower, there is nice another 100 pips to cash in. However if suprise have happen, bounce down is still highly probable, but it's hard to say how high.

If price will break 1.6380 before the news and won't bounce back, I would stay away of the market during release.

On Bernake Testimony I will comment later today.

http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/ update:

For today I'm comfortable with taking long on either EU or GU after European Industrial Production release. What I'm looking for exactly is if price will not break lower [current low is [email protected] and [email protected]] around news and what's more 1M chart after news will show some higher lows higher highs. I would treat it then as good SL level and would bet for 100 pips gain within coup[le of hours no matter what news will be.
Otherwise, ifprice will continue falling I would stay away for today.

I returned to posting on my blog.
Here's some detailed strategy for Non-Farm Employment Change
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/

For today Non-Farm Payroll I have mixed feelings about UJ, It's on definite trend down, however It's on bottom of a channel, near January low and there was very clear pin-bar on Monday that may indicate some trend reversal...

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Quick post news comment:

1. Price action not as expected,
2. GU retraced quite late,
3. Not much hope in shorting UJ, but 50% fib entry was quite nice.
4. Post release price action confirmed UJ trend reversal
   

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This analisys can be found as well on my blog here:
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/2009/1...on-aussie.html

I hope to get some comments

I will be definitely focused on Aussie interest rate tonight, before just in half an hour there is UK Services PMI released.
For this news I'm in general biased short, so worse than expected data would be much more promising for me.
Best point for entering short would be 1.5975 - it's 50% fib level for last hour plunge [between 8:00 and 9:30 GMT+1], this might be important resistance in case of better than expected data.

Whatever initial spike will be, it's very likely that it will turn back to 50% between top or bottom of spike and pre-release price, and that's the level where I'm keen to enter [either short if initial spike was down or long if it was both up AND data was better than expected].

It may happen especially if data was better, that spike will go up, but price will back to pre-release and go lower [pre-release will be my SL] in this case I would re-enter on 50% fib between highest price of the spike and lowest after break below pre-release price.