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  • #3,301
  • Sep 11, 2009 11:47am Sep 11, 2009 11:47am
Quoting adriann
ISLANDER:
iam waiting if it break support and resistance horizontal lines but this days seems range now.

Agreed, I've been leaving limit buys and sells and pirating ~20 pips a go out of the range - my last sell just hit its TP and so I now have a long whilst I take a sundowner.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,302
  • Sep 11, 2009 12:17pm Sep 11, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting Islander
Agreed, I've been leaving limit buys and sells and pirating ~20 pips a go out of the range - my last sell just hit its TP and so I now have a long whilst I take a sundowner.....
Islander ...I see testing gu ....

1.6650 hard nut to crack .

I will post a chart on weekend
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,303
  • Sep 11, 2009 1:06pm Sep 11, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting Islander
Agreed, I've been leaving limit buys and sells and pirating ~20 pips a go out of the range - my last sell just hit its TP and so I now have a long whilst I take a sundowner.....
TP hit for +15 and I'm finished for the week.....good weekend to all

@ Malcolmb - thanks, I look forward to seeing your chart and writeup http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,304
  • Sep 11, 2009 2:30pm Sep 11, 2009 2:30pm
Hi all:

I've been struggling with VSA this week as I can't seem to see many clear setups. This has prevented me from entering some trades that turned out to be winners. A perfect example is shown below on EURJPY.

Prior to studying VSA, I would have analysed it this way:
- Downtrend
- Pullback to prior support now predicted to be resistance
- Short after bearish engulfing candle. Note, I would have preferred to see a weak candle like a doji or spinning top before the bearish engulfing candle.

After studying VSA, I analysed it this way:
1,2. Buyers coming in
3. Upthrust (weakness)
This is where I started to waiver on the weakness
4. Seems to be a bullish candle to me that would invalidate the previous upthrust
5. A bullish candle on higher volume. This candle threw me for a loop and I didn't pull the trigger.

I just don't see any no demand or weak candles that would have made me take a confident short.....

Can someone help me here?

Thanks,
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  • #3,305
  • Sep 11, 2009 4:14pm Sep 11, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting euro_dude
Hi all:

I've been struggling with VSA this week as I can't seem to see many clear setups. This has prevented me from entering some trades that turned out to be winners. A perfect example is shown below on EURJPY.

Prior to studying VSA, I would have analysed it this way:
- Downtrend
- Pullback to prior support now predicted to be resistance
- Short after bearish engulfing candle. Note, I would have preferred to see a weak candle like a doji or spinning top before the bearish engulfing candle.

After studying VSA, I analysed it this way:
1,2....
First, welcome.

Hopefully, you will get a few responses here to your question so we all can learn.

Let's start off by saying you don't have to completely disregard any analysis techniques just because you use VSA. VSA is "stand alone" but if other analysis techniques help you make pips, the true end game, then by all means use them.

On to the chart:

I have attached a copy of your chart with a few observations. And want to point to a few candles.

The area of the ellipse is the second ideal place to look for a trade entry. The first of course is within the Supply/Demand Delta Zone. But as this zone is also a support/resistance zone, we can look for trades finding support or resistance just outside the zone.

#3: You are correct that this is an up thrust. This is weakness.

A: The very next candle is a test. Why test? Because the previous bar showed weakness in the form of an up thrust. The SM is trying to see if there is indeed supply in the market, or supply ready to enter the market at these price levels.

The test is good as the next candle is up.

B: After one up candle (4), the market tests again. The SM seems weary to take prices higher at this time. And we are pushing up against resistance.

The next candle is up, which confirms our test.

C: Things change quickly.

C is a wide spread dark (open>close) and down candle that engulfs both the test at A and B and closes lower than them. We now are seeing no results from a test(s). This is your first entry point to the downside.

It is not all that easy to see, but again, your other analysis techniques were pointing in this direction anyway. VSA confirms what you are already seeing.

D: This is a No Demand and many traders would enter the market here. This would be considered the "safe" entry point on the appearance of our old friend No Demand. If you're already in, this is an ideal add on set-up. One might also want to move the stop to just above this candle once it is confirmed.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,306
  • Sep 12, 2009 12:15am Sep 12, 2009 12:15am
Hi, anyone knows where i can get VSA Indicators for the SGD/AUD? Thanks
  • #3,307
  • Sep 12, 2009 9:04am Sep 12, 2009 9:04am
Quoting euro_dude
Hi all:

I've been struggling with VSA this week as I can't seem to see many clear setups. This has prevented me from entering some trades that turned out to be winners. A perfect example is shown below on EURJPY.

Prior to studying VSA, I would have analysed it this way:
- Downtrend
- Pullback to prior support now predicted to be resistance
- Short after bearish engulfing candle. Note, I would have preferred to see a weak candle like a doji or spinning top before the bearish engulfing candle.

After studying VSA, I analysed it this way:
1,2....
those few bars in itself was not an easy trade.....

BUT the background is selling for prior 2 days ... and that upthrust would have been enough to sell with a tight stop

you always have to consider back ground

to be honest with you i do not think i would have taken that sell trade with the ultra high volume down bar just before the consolidation zone. ES was up , euro was up and the impulsive down move was coming form selling of uj mostly


I would have been looking for longs based on that on a test of 132

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,308
  • Sep 12, 2009 9:05am Sep 12, 2009 9:05am
Quoting Exomate
Hi, anyone knows where i can get VSA Indicators for the SGD/AUD? Thanks

why trade something so obscure to begin with ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,309
  • Sep 12, 2009 9:24am Sep 12, 2009 9:24am
Quoting Islander
TP hit for +15 and I'm finished for the week.....good weekend to all

@ Malcolmb - thanks, I look forward to seeing your chart and writeup http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

in fact looking at 15 min seems there is selling interest last 24 hours... gu getting very weak

under 1.6640 we head down for test supply zone 1.6550 to 1.6500

from an elliot wave perspective ( have new nifty software for this) we are in an abc correction phase on daily HOWEVER if 1.6500 gives way then this become the start of a wave 5 pattern down .. taking us into 1.5800

form an rsx perspective there is bearish div in gu building last 4 days

so vsa , coupled with es and rsx i think gu test 1.6500 in fact I am looking at shorting gj off 151.50 sunday for move to 149 to 147

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,310
  • Sep 12, 2009 2:09pm Sep 12, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lets start with something simple ......

think of this ...price is declining on a 5 min chart...
Will someone please post a link to what I think is the murrey math lines that are on this chart.
Thx a bunch.

I've got some issues with being on the wrong side of the market.
Yesterday I traded e/j London and NY sessions for +85.5 pips.
I was 21-3 on ALL Buy trades using the better volume indicator for reversals on m1/m5 chart. e/j dropped 221 pips during my trading..Doh.

I was also 6-0 on g/u NY session, 3 buys/3 sells.

If I would have been going short on e/j that 85 could have been 400.
Please help.
Thx again
  • #3,311
  • Sep 12, 2009 2:30pm Sep 12, 2009 2:30pm
I mentioned this once before, but I thought I show it again here. This doesn't always happen of course, but often we see something very interesting happen when an effort to rise occurs. More specifically, an effort to rise that also is a key change in the supply/demand dynamic in the market.

The effort to rise candles we are concerned with here are going to be expansion bodies 7 and something is true with respect to the prior interval and the immediately following interval (big hint coming).

This effort to rise candle sometimes acts like a "measuring gap (huge hint)".

Take a look at the two charts. The first chart shows a test entry after we have seen strength in the background. We have seen stopping volume which followed two ultra wide spread down candles on ultra high volume. While both closed down, the closed in the upper 1/3 of their respective ranges.

Is there an entry soon after the stopping volume? Well, yes for some. But if you missed it, all is not lost. Because the market gives a great entry later once a significant EB7 (the effort to rise) appears. We don't know this with absolute certainty, but often this effort candle marks the midpoint or 50% of the move. Hence the term measuring.

The second chart includes a fib from the low of the stopping volume to the high of the ensuing move. Notice that in the middle of the two pink lines is a blue line which reads 50%. So our significant EB7, which must be a _____ ___, is acting like a measuring gap (hint).

The real key for me is that one does not have to feel like its chasing to enter on this test. There is a good chance that half the move is left to come.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,312
  • Sep 12, 2009 2:36pm Sep 12, 2009 2:36pm
btw anyone knows where can i view open interest on a currency pair?
  • #3,313
  • Sep 12, 2009 2:55pm Sep 12, 2009 2:55pm
hi Hidden Gap,
this is the Daily eu/us daily last update. if I consider bar 1 is reversal bar as hanging man ,or shooting star( whatever you want to name it) according to candle stick pattern point of view.
and if from VSA point of view i consider it upthrust(but not perfect as volume is lower, and may need another real upthrust bar next week with higher volume).
so if i want to short below the low of bar 1, so where should i put the target according to deta zone method od vsa principles.
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  • #3,314
  • Sep 12, 2009 4:51pm Sep 12, 2009 4:51pm
Hi,
I am new to VSA, so I may be wrong, but I will try anyway ...

Quoting from The Book:

"Up-thrusts can be recognised as a wide spread up during the day (or during any timeframe), accompanied by high volume, to then close on the low. Up-thrusts are usually seen after a rise in the market, where the market has now become overbought and there is weakness in the background. Up-thrusts are frequently seen after a period of selling, just before a down-move. Note the day must close on or very near the lows; the volume can be either low (no demand) or high (supply overcoming the demand)."

That is, upthrust can be both on low and high volume, first showing successful test, second selling pressure.

I believe this daily upthrust is on lower volume because most accumulation happened day before (that's how I read the hourly graph).

But I would like to hear an opinion on this from somebody more experienced.
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  • #3,315
  • Sep 12, 2009 5:47pm Sep 12, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting HiddenGap
First, welcome.

Hopefully, you will get a few responses here to your question so we all can learn.

Let's start off by saying you don't have to completely disregard any analysis techniques just because you use VSA. VSA is "stand alone" but if other analysis techniques help you make pips, the true end game, then by all means use them.

On to the chart:

I have attached a copy of your chart with a few observations. And want to point to a few candles.

The area of the ellipse is the second ideal place to look for a trade entry. The first of...
Hi HG:

Thanks for your quick reply. I've learned from your posting yet again.

You are correct in that I overemphasized VSA and neglected my other technical analysis techniques.

I have a few thoughts for your comment:

1. I think my other weakness is following VSA definitions too strictly:

For example, I never paid attention to that red candle that created the Supply/Demand Delta Zone because it never closed in the lower 20%. So it is very interesting that these "pseudo" EB7 bars can create Supply/Demand Delta Zones!

Another example is I didn't spot that No Demand bar at "D" because I was looking for a bar that satisfied the definition - ".... a No Demand bar closes in the LOWER half...."

In fact, before reading this thread I was completely missing those small Upthrusts bars by blindly following the definItion - "....an Upthrust bar is a WIDE range bar...."

I guess experience determines when to relax VSA definitions!

2. I like to get one last concept straight in my mind. If a successful Test is considered bullish!

Doesn't two (2) back-to-back successful Tests of Supply invalidate the Upthrust and still make that pullback bullish?

Thanks for your time,
  • #3,316
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:06pm Sep 12, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting rockk
hi Hidden Gap,
this is the Daily eu/us daily last update. if I consider bar 1 is reversal bar as hanging man ,or shooting star( whatever you want to name it) according to candle stick pattern point of view.
and if from VSA point of view i consider it upthrust(but not perfect as volume is lower, and may need another real upthrust bar next week with higher volume).
so if i want to short below the low of bar 1, so where should i put the target according to deta zone method od vsa principles.

Rockk;

To be honest, I am not sure if that is an up thrust. It is a narrow range down bar with volume less than the previous two bars. Looks like it may be no supply. It does close down near the low after making a higher high, so some selling did happen on this candle.

With that said, If this is an up thrust I am unaware of a purely VSA method to determine a profit target based on what I see here. Malcomlb may be of some help here.

Candle #4 appears to be a wide spread up candle of volume less than average. I would target the area comprised by the body of this candle. If price moves here, I would look for clearer signs of weakness or strength.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,317
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:25pm Sep 12, 2009 6:25pm
Euro_Dude;

The two tests are bullish in and of themselves. However, as soon as you see a wide spread down candle that both engulfs and closes lower than the tests, this is no result from a test(s). This is weakness.

With no demands, it is more important that they are narrow on volume less than the previous two than where the actual close is within the range.

Not all up thrusts are created equal. Generally speaking the wider the better.

In fact, if you go by the book definition an up thrust closes on or near the low, but CLOSES UP. Unfortunately, the market is not so black and white.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,318
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:30pm Sep 12, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Rockk;

To be honest, I am not sure if that is an up thrust. It is a narrow range down bar with volume less than the previous two bars. Looks like it may be no supply. It does close down near the low after making a higher high, so some selling did happen on this candle.

With that said, If this is an up thrust I am unaware of a purely VSA method to determine a profit target based on what I see here. Malcomlb may be of some help here.

Candle #4 appears to be a wide spread up candle of volume less than average. I would target the area comprised...
thankyou HG for reply.
but you said candle 4 has volume less than averag.
it looks for me that it has average volume?
  • #3,319
  • Sep 12, 2009 8:12pm Sep 12, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting trading801
btw anyone knows where can i view open interest on a currency pair?
i think u can view them on currency futures. check out the CME website.
  • #3,320
  • Sep 12, 2009 8:26pm Sep 12, 2009 8:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
why trade something so obscure to begin with ?
I understand its a little known currency pair in the Forex world (SGD/AUD) but it is still a profitable market nevertheless , besides i reside in SG, so its easier for me to monitor the movement of my own country's currency.

I have tried sourcing for a VSA indicator for the currency pair for a long time to no avail, was hoping someone may be able to provide some help here. Thanks.
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