Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

In top dollar or gold?

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist


Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

The ascent of the British pound against the US dollar over the past week suggests that the currency has experienced broad strength, but this certainly was not the case. In fact, the British pound fell roughly 1.3 percent against the New Zealand dollar, dropped 0.9 percent against the Japanese yen, and slipped a slight 0.3 percent against the euro. Furthermore, the British pound was second only to the greenback in being the weakest of the majors over the past month, with GBPJPY having plunged almost 5 percent. Overall, despite recent improvements in economic data, the combination of the Bank of England’s liberal quantitative easing stance and bleak outlooks regarding the fiscal health of the nation creates significant bearish pressures for the British pound. That said, this isn’t incredibly apparently in GBPUSD, but is more easily seen in pairs like GBPJPY and EURGBP. This could change in the coming week though, as GBPUSD ran into falling trendline resistance drawn from the July 2008 highs at 1.6735.

Looking ahead to next week’s event risk, the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) reading for the month of August is expected to rise 0.3 percent, but the more important part of this report is that the annual rate of growth, which is more closely watched by the Bank of England, is forecasted to fall to 1.4 percent, the lowest since October 2004, from 1.8 percent, keeping inflation within the central bank’s acceptable range of 1 percent - 3 percent, but below their 2 percent target. If CPI falls more than projected, the British pound could pull back sharply as the markets will anticipate that the BOE will expand their quantitative easing efforts even further before year-end. On the other hand, if CPI holds strong – which seems possibly in light of the rise in both input and output produce prices - the currency could rally in response.

Other notable releases include UK jobless claims, which are projected to have risen for the 18th straight month in August, this time by 25,000. Adding to this potentially disappointing result, the ILO unemployment rate could rise to 8.0 percent, the highest since November 1996, from 7.8 percent, which would not bode particularly well for the consumption outlook. This point may be highlighted by the UK retail sales report, which is only forecasted to rise by 0.1 percent. This indicator only tends to be market-moving upon large surprises, though, and a reading in line with expectations shouldn’t shake up trade too much. Finally, public sector net borrowing is expected to rise by another 17.6 billion pounds, which will only add to evidence that the nation’s fiscal health is rapidly deteriorating and suggesting that risks are growing for a downgrade to the UK’s AAA credit rating.

Thanks. It boost up my confidence on the bear.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=195488



same view with u in my Tuesday post...just patient enough to see PA going to touch the upper line... but am still becarefull on Gold reaction next week..and look to add more short next week....in case...Thanks for sharing ur view mate

4hr Chart

Trade entries from 1HR and 15M charts.

Confirmation From Daily Candle stick..

ALTERNATE SCENARIO 4 HR.

If you can understand...if not

Get ready for some Crazy PA... Next 2 weeks. end of third quarter.

Retracement up to 157??!!

was planning to short on 10 lot..but if it goes that high..will mc..

lol

very nice thanks!

IF it cant pass 153 how will it go to 157 and why the hell would u short it if it went there...? post chart please to show this crazy scenero

Raza's 2nd prediction at #196896

It should also boost your account balance with proper MM .

It Bearish season now. It time for fast and furious price action..

Gold is back in the game for some major price action..TA shows that gold broke some major trendlines for bullish bias on the daily and weekly charts.

I expect pullbacks to the LTL on the weekly chart..(buying dips)

Incredible shrinking dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?vide...S*tag*&par=RSS

The next few weeks is going to be crazy based on TA..

I hope the bull fans join with us before the fast and furious price action.

I am still laughing at the bulls traders on this board for GJ

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.54 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.27 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 19.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 22.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.3% stronger than yesterday and 9.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.38 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.66 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 2.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.1% higher than yesterday and 12.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 17.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 0.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 2.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.8% weaker than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

157 is 61.8% retracement of 163- 149.

I'm a noob which just left babypips. Thanks for the info raza. Ur my hero!!

for gj to go to 157 the indexes have to break out to new high (1200 s&p) and gu would have to break 1.7000. The only thing bothering me is uj being close to 88 support that may be defedned

anyway

here is ew analysis for 60 min chart ... max this retracement can go to is 152 to form wave 4 (see the blue , green and red line above wave noted in chart below..if the top one of these if broken then a 5 wave set up is not valid and there will be no attempt to push lower.. Then plotting fib extensions on a 1-2-3 formation we have down side targets 149,80 / 148.90 and on the outside 147.40


also 2nd chart .. we have a down channel on 60 min chart with the 50 sma at 152.16 ... as long as price stay under this bears in control

also last 20 sessions vwap is 152 and point of control is 152.50 so this is the critical level.

for now the targets are to the downside for a test of lows , unless we get a close on 2 hour charts above 152 zone.

as mentioned I have been very happy selling off 153 all last week. even happier Friday

lets hope so buddy ..153 need to hold for me to think bullish season...weekly pin i eckon has failled, seller should follow up on the move if the lows of the pin breaks...

im short anyways....GL

can someone post coloured QQE please

Could you please advise what SMA periods should be used for different timeframes? I noted that Malcolmb uses SMA 50 for H1, what periods are appropriate for M5, M15, Daily and Weekly?

Thank you in advance