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  • #5,041
  • Sep 9, 2009 2:05pm Sep 9, 2009 2:05pm
My AUDJPY Short is now in some profit but of note is the new PB of Resistance Area which i believe gives more confluence....i will keep holding this for sometime now.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,042
  • Sep 9, 2009 4:09pm Sep 9, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting Eduardo
Chris, what's your opinion on trading the same pair twice with this longer term trading? What I mean is for example that Aud is looking pretty strong at the moment against the Usd, it's trending upwards against all pairs, some better than others (could be the interest rate thing I mentioned the other day).

I'm currently long AudUsd. If you were me would you take a trade on another Aud pair if it gave you a good signal?

I'm thinking that if a currency is strengthening in general maybe you should take advantage of it and buy it against ALL other...
I rarely trade the same currency in several pairs. In fact, you are correct in my opinion, I never trade more than 2 trades in the same direction on the same currency.

If your risk tolerance is 1% per trade, and you get hit twice on a loss....it's not a disaster, but I would hate to have 4 get stopped out at once!
  • #5,043
  • Sep 9, 2009 4:32pm Sep 9, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
Watching this one......
do you intend 95 is a weekly ppz or a minor area?

it's indeed a nice round number, but looking at my chart can't see very much week love for this level
  • #5,044
  • Edited 8:22pm Sep 9, 2009 5:35pm | Edited 8:22pm
Hi Eduardo,

Thanks again for indirectly bringing up the topic of risk sizing on the Forex, which I think is important to expand on a bit here, if I may use my progress as an example and hopefully in spirit of this method.

I believe that one of the strengths and weaknesses for traders in the currency market is that it's virtually dominated by little more than a handful of currencies. So what I look for are the pairs that consistently display the clearest signals to enter and exit a trade with. I'm talking crisp, boxy, dead obvious signals most of the time. Maybe two or three pairs is all. That works and is comfortable for me, with little exception.

For not so long ago I drove myself nuts with tracking to trade nearabout 20 pairs, which finally lead to analysis paralysis, even with this simple method. I saw opportunities everywhere! So that goes to show that it can be hard to really discipline oneself to mastering one or two pairs. And what I mean by "mastering" is practicing the basics over-and-over again because there are subtle variations in the PA that will remain forever undiscovered, unless one allows the basics to reveal the magic underneath. Not to profit per se but to practice!

I'd leave it up to you to decide how long is appropriate for you to do that kind of intensive but one thing you'll surely notice is that no one will have to tell you when you've had it. Like what Chris says about practicing placing the S/R lines, "until you start to have bad dreams about it," kind of thing. This is what begins to separate those who think they like to trade from those who love practicing the trade. You've got to be willing to make it a lifelong practice or else you'll probably end up very frustrated in this business. Success will seem elusive and you might just take it personally, then go about looking for that next system, method or strategy - whether yours or another's - to make it right.

So back to it. If you decide to experiment with this perspective, it's important you let your instincts, intelligence and intuition guide you to what pair(s) is best for you. Once you've discovered your specialty pair(s), my suggestion then would be to treat the other pairs as indicators, for the purpose of alerting you to trades on the select pair(s) you'd already chose to actually transact the market with. [A caveat especially at-this-point is that there may come a temptation to being seduced to even consider trading the other pairs but hold steady to your plan.] Your preferences can and probably will eventually change but if you really get the pair(s) you're trading, it's not going to be an easy thing to take you away. So this is an example of being open to new possibilities and opportunities but always checking-in with home base, which is what I'm finding to be somewhat universal to all traders whom treat trading as a business.

Best to you,
Soca
  • #5,045
  • Sep 9, 2009 7:58pm Sep 9, 2009 7:58pm
Quoting ttteee
do you intend 95 is a weekly ppz or a minor area?

it's indeed a nice round number, but looking at my chart can't see very much week love for this level
I see it as a weekly s/r line, going back all the way to 92.
  • #5,046
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:02pm Sep 9, 2009 8:02pm
Quoting Soca
Hi Eduardo,

Thanks again for indirectly bringing up the topic of risk sizing on the Forex, which I think is important to expand on a bit here, if I may use my progress as an example and hopefully in spirit of this method....
Even if I trade several pairs and markets, I really like this post.

It's funny really, I was talking to Kulu on the phone last night - he mentioned how he will trade the Yen, but is a little more gun shy about it. He has been burnt a few times by it, so it's not his favorite pair. Oddly enough, I feel the same about AUD and anything NOT the USD attached to it.

It's a preference. Nothing more, nothing less. You can say that each market or pair has it's own "personality", and some just won't mess up with yours.

Chris
  • #5,047
  • Sep 9, 2009 9:30pm Sep 9, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting Danku
My AUDJPY Short is now in some profit but of note is the new PB of Resistance Area which i believe gives more confluence....i will keep holding this for sometime now.

Cheers
Im with ya I got it at 40
  • #5,048
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:51am Sep 10, 2009 1:51am
Quoting Soca
Hi Eduardo,

Thanks again for indirectly bringing up the topic of risk sizing on the Forex, which I think is important to expand on a bit here, if I may use my progress as an example and hopefully in spirit of this method.

....

Thanks for sharing your experience Soca, a lot of what you posted makes
sense to me. They say "practice makes perfect" and we need to continually
practice and evolve while trading and while we practice we gain experience
of the markets and how they move/work.

Thanks for the replies to my last (and first) post. Sorry for the late reply i
get only a few hours before work in the morning to read the thread and I
think the rest of the world is in the land of

I have been studying forex for about 1 year just reading ebooks and
websites/forums and still havent placed even a demo trade, although i was
going to make the Gold trade a first trade i knew that i hadnt put a lot of
thought into it regarding fundamentals, that triangle forming, different tf's,
TP/SL/Exit etc. I just got excited because it was a textbook pinbar

Although from what i have read here and elsewhere, taking the retrace of
the pin would be too aggressive for me and i would probably as a new trader
wait and make sure the market is going down instead of just jumping on the
trade and possibly getting whipsawed

Anyway i shall go back to where i was reading this thread around page 100
and when i finish reading and gain a little practice at the charts im sure i
will be posting again.

Once again thanks for the thread and your input, i lost my motivation for
forex for a few weeks earlier this year and it's thanks to this thread that im
100% motivated again
  • #5,049
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:47pm Sep 10, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting kodflakes
Im with ya I got it at 40
How is your short coming along? Mine got hunted after i moved my stop...now i just picked 30pips.......it had initially missed my target 78.54 by three pips......

Maybe i should set a new rule that whenever price gets to 5 pips of my target i manually close it......what do you think?
  • #5,050
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:03pm Sep 10, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting Danku
How is your short coming along? Mine got hunted after i moved my stop...now i just picked 30pips.......it had initially missed my target 78.54 by three pips......

Maybe i should set a new rule that whenever price gets to 5 pips of my target i manually close it......what do you think?
Hi.

I only have a T/P on countertrend trades and if I just come to the charts and see that I'm just some pips away from my target and intend to walk away again I would with no doubt close the position. If other reasons tell me that it could go a bit further than my initial plan I move the T/P and set the S/L a few pips (10-20) behind. But to be honest this does not work out that often.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,051
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:57pm Sep 10, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting stefx
Hi.

I only have a T/P on countertrend trades and if I just come to the charts and see that I'm just some pips away from my target and intend to walk away again I would with no doubt close the position. If other reasons tell me that it could go a bit further than my initial plan I move the T/P and set the S/L a few pips (10-20) behind. But to be honest this does not work out that often.

Stefan.

Agreed, 110%.

Chris
  • #5,052
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:26pm Sep 10, 2009 4:26pm
Hi guys!
Let me share my pain with you today.
I took a risky trade with natural gas. I was convinced the fall was near to end, and saw a nice BUOB. I got in and set my SL below the lowest price, as usual.
Yesterday I realize my trade was in a risky situation because:

 

  1. It was countertrend (I new it before, obviously)
  2. It made a bearish PB
  3. Today we had gas stock report

As I use to do, I moved my SL just below the new PB.
I was stoped out at BE
You can see what happened some hours later.
Imagine where I had set my TP: YES, 3.300!


Anyway, still convinced I did the right think, the same I am going to do with the PB that appeared after the PB I took 2 days ago in USDCAD.

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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #5,053
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:52pm Sep 10, 2009 4:52pm
I can tell ya....the only problem with Chris' method, and holding onto your trades, is that you have nothing but ample opportunity to screw it up by messing with it.

LOL.
  • #5,054
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:35pm Sep 10, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting Low
I can tell ya....the only problem with Chris' method, and holding onto your trades, is that you have nothing but ample opportunity to screw it up by messing with it.

LOL.

Good Lord, I know what you mean. Thankfully I have been working my a$$ off the last 3 weeks, leaving me little chance to screw things up.

Chris
  • #5,055
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:36pm Sep 10, 2009 5:36pm
Quoting eswap0
Hi guys!
Let me share my pain with you today.
I took a risky trade with natural gas. I was convinced the fall was near to end, and saw a nice BUOB. I got in and set my SL below the lowest price, as usual.
Yesterday I realize my trade was in a risky situation because:

 

  1. It was countertrend (I new it before, obviously)
  2. It made a bearish PB
  3. Today we had gas stock report

As I use to do, I moved my SL just below the new PB.
I was stoped out at BE
You can see what happened some hours later.
Imagine where I had set my TP: YES,...


I've been there, and it sucks. I am sorry to hear it mate.
  • #5,056
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:53pm Sep 10, 2009 5:53pm
The beauty of not being there. It's a funny thing, really. Many, if not all, of my best trades are when I am not around. It can either be while at work, or better yet - while sleeping. (Thanks Europe!)

I have been trading the ES lately. For those of you that are about to go searching symbol lists, it's the S&P E-Mini contracts.

I have also been working on apartments and houses at The Ohio State University, getting them ready for the little bastards.....I mean students, to come back for fall classes. I work roughly 12-18 hours a day this time of year. I am fortunate enough to live only a few miles from there, and come home once or twice during the day.

I have been coming home in the early afternoon and shorting the ES. It's having trouble around the 1040 area. It's great to come back to profits. I like it a lot, and highly recommend it if you get a chance. The other time I come home is to do something (normally a video) for the group.

The best part is this: I am making money on top of making money. I make it at work, and also trading. That's the point of this. It's a simple matter of compounding. Compounding your money can be done in several ways. A lot of people bitch about their jobs, and how trading is going to make it all better when they make a gazillion Pesos trading the USD/MXN. Nonsense.

For most of us, it's more realistic to add to what we do during the day. Besides, I would go crazy sitting at the computer begging for my Pork Belly contracts to go up in value.

Take the following example that happened to me recently:

I painted an apartment that took 3 hours: $270 profit.
I traded the ES at the same time - left, and made: $200

That's a damn good day in my opinion. Break it down like this:

3 hours of painting.
15 minutes of driving.
2 minutes of chart time.

I worked 3.26 hours (roughly) that day -

I made $82.82 an hour painting.
But with the trade as well..... $144.17 an hour.

Which would you rather do? I understand it works both ways......but I am trying to get you to think about the bigger picture is all. Not bad for a part time day!

Chris
  • #5,057
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:26pm Sep 10, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting Low
I can tell ya....the only problem with Chris' method, and holding onto your trades, is that you have nothing but ample opportunity to screw it up by messing with it.

LOL.
Interesting that you mention this. Sam Seiden, instructor from Online Trading Academy, a very focused S/R trader, reversed the tables so to speak, with regard to those like me who have a day job. He said making a trade and then not being able (due to a job) to monitor it for the day actually eliminates traders' emotions as a factor. So rather than looking at not being able to manipulate the trade as a curse, we should look at it as a blessing.
  • #5,058
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:31pm Sep 10, 2009 7:31pm
CW: Good stuff. Big game for the Ohio State this weekend. I am leaning towards USC, should be a good game. Good Luck!

Hey, am I being too careful here? Aud/Jpy reacted to 50% retrace on big move south and I am not getting in due to some minor resistance (see 4 hr chart below) at 79-78.5 area and 76.5-77 area. Price broke through a little rectangle or ledge recently. Thoughts on this pair right now?? I trade based on dailies mostly (see the daily below).

Thanks as always!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy daily 9-10.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #5,059
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:32pm Sep 10, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting Lou
Interesting that you mention this. Sam Seiden, instructor from Online Trading Academy, a very focused S/R trader, reversed the tables so to speak, with regard to those like me who have a day job. He said making a trade and then not being able (due to a job) to monitor it for the day actually eliminates traders' emotions as a factor. So rather than looking at not being able to manipulate the trade as a curse, we should look at it as a blessing.

Yes, exactly! It is a blessing in my opinion.
  • #5,060
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:35pm Sep 10, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting drebin
CW: Good stuff. Big game for the Ohio State this weekend. I am leaning towards USC, should be a good game. Good Luck!

Hey, am I being too careful here? Aud/Jpy reacted to 50% retrace on big move south and I am not getting in due to some minor resistance (see 4 hr chart below) at 79-78.5 area and 76.5-77 area. Price broke through a little rectangle or ledge recently. Thoughts on this pair right now?? I trade based on dailies mostly (see the daily below).

Thanks as always!
I would only trade this on a nice pinbar, or appropriate bar formation at this point. The biggest problem you have is the AUD part of the equation. Everyone loves the AUD right now.

However, if you are going to find a great place to trade this short - it will be in this neighborhood.

And for OSU, I don't know, we will see. I will be rooting for them, but think the Trojans are going to be horribly tough. And I hate that team personally.

Chris
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