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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,601
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:25pm Sep 10, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting yen44x
what if I choose to trade the same two lots you're trading in the example you cited? If the two lots lead to a loss, you lose 200 pips and I lose 60 more or less. If the two lots end up a winner, our winnings are exactly the same. Is it better to follow the money management "basic" just because that's the rule?

Maybe I missed something in your argument. If so, please feel free to clear it up for me. In the meantime, good luck on your trades.
he's actually saying that when you change 100 sl to a 30 sl, the probability to hit a sl is much higher than when sl is 100.

so before, for example, if tp 100, sl 100, and you trade it for a year, and you found you win/loss ratio may be 1:1, so after 1 yr, you end up break even.

if you change sl to 30, still tp 100, you trade another year, you found that you win/loss ratio is now lower: 1:3, but even you win 1 and lose 3 for every 4 trades. you still end up break even, because
1*100 tp = 3*30 sl (approximately).

this is just a common example when we adjust a system's sl and tp trying to expand profit and reduce loss. however, it is more than often in vain. above example shows why.

however, sometimes, adjusting SL might improve system's performance. and this 30%~50% SL seems such a case.

looks to me, yen is correct on this one. when you cut 50% SL, you losing probability doesn't go up 100%. therefore, ultimately, loss is reduced, overall profit increased.

all in all, this system's parameters are liable to further optimization, which is a great thing.
  • #3,602
  • Edited 3:24pm Sep 10, 2009 3:06pm | Edited 3:24pm
I'm just throwing this out there... so do with it what you will.

I took Ace's system and applied it to the dollar cross majors. To be specific I charted it on EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD.

The only major tweak I made was that instead of measuring my TP1 from the top/bottom of the box, I measured it from the top/bottom of the candle. So basically I just excluded the upper and lower buffer (mine was a 20 pip buffer). For all subsequent TP levels I then added the total box (including buffers).

Box Range = (Candle High + 20 pips) - (Candle Low - 20 pips)
TP1 = Candle High + Box Range / Candle Low - Box Range
TP2 = TP1 + Box Range / TP1 - Box Range
TP3 = TP2 + Box Range / TP2 - Box Range
TP4 = TP3 + Box Range / TP3 - Box Range

You can add more TP levels as necessary or wish.

To be clear, I did not trade this set up, as I just wanted to see how it performed with this weeks PA. I'm not sure what the long term significance or success of this variation will be, but I did notice that for this week anyway, prices moved to, and reacted around these levels with extreme precision.

Any comments or observations would be appreciated.... thx

Also... I'm not a coder... any coder's out there wish to create an indicator for this?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Addicted and proud of it!
  • #3,603
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:24pm Sep 10, 2009 5:24pm
i firmly believe that tweaking sl,tp,clearance, etc won't change the fact that usd pairs are not profitable for this system,according to my comprehensive backtests done from 20090101~present.

Quoting PiPsAddict
I'm just throwing this out there... so do with it what you will.

I took Ace's system and applied it to the dollar cross majors. To be specific I charted it on EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD.

The only major tweak I made was that instead of measuring my TP1 from the top/bottom of the box, I measured it from the top/bottom of the candle. So basically I just excluded the upper and lower buffer (mine was a 20 pip buffer). For all subsequent TP levels I then added the total box (including buffers).

Box Range = (Candle High + 20 pips) - (Candle Low - 20 pips)
TP1...
  • #3,604
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:51pm Sep 10, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting yen44x
This system isn't about being "lucky". It's a mechanical system, so your only role as a trader is to fine-tune the mechanics to the highest degree possible.
Thanks yen44x, i agree with you, with 35%-50% SL we cut the losses.

I have writing about "no lucky" just because this is my first trades in this system.

Imagine someone have pocket 300 pips in first week, and next week he lose 200 pips... So, he can think: "No problem... i have 100 pips from this system yet, i'm a lucky man!"

The "no lucky" is only about my start time.
  • #3,605
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:53pm Sep 10, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting charvo
i firmly believe that tweaking sl,tp,clearance, etc won't change the fact that usd pairs are not profitable for this system,according to my comprehensive backtests done from 20090101~present.
Fair enough... so even though I had similar results on 4 major USD crosses, I should just chalk this week up to being an fluke?
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #3,606
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:55pm Sep 10, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting Inbox
Thanks yen44x, i agree with you, with 35%-50% SL we cut the losses. I have writing about "no lucky" just because this is my first trades in this system. Imagine someone have pocket 300 pips in first week, and next week he lose 200 pips... So, he can think: "No problem... i have 100 pips from this system yet, i'm a lucky man!" The "no lucky" is only about my start time.
You're right, Inbox. Sorry, I wasn't trying to pick on you personally. My goal was to speak to anyone who thinks that just following the rules will guarantee success.

I guess I'm "lucky" that you're so understanding.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,607
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:07pm Sep 10, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting yen44x
You're right, Inbox. Sorry, I wasn't trying to pick on you personally. My goal was to speak to anyone who thinks that just following the rules will guarantee success.

I guess I'm "lucky" that you're so understanding.
Yes, i know that yen... no problem!

Thank you Ace, and all traders that are helping to improve the system.
  • #3,608
  • Edited 6:45pm Sep 10, 2009 6:27pm | Edited 6:45pm
Quoting Inbox
2nd 100% SL hit this week... no lucky start for me...

This is my 3rd week trading this system... a lot of negative pips until now...
I'm ok with yen44x http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif, all setUp has some up and down but I would like to add some rule about the moment when you come in for the first time in a system :

- set up have Drawdowns witch is the max profit dregrease from a high time profit during some weeks of trading. that's mind that If you begin to win first, your capital grow up and if loss after that, you be able to come back but with chance to rest under profit if your MM is good.
But If you begin with losses, the setup is still good, just the setup is no good for the instant : the fact is that your first capital degrease and that is the big danger to finish without nothing, your MM degreasing as far as your capital do the same. capital is your tools of work, let's keep it !

SO, when you begin a Setup in live after demo, you have to degreased a lot your % risk : if your choice is 2%, let's begin with 0,5 % or 0,3 %.
week after week, stay like this, don't worry about the money you don't win, think about the money you don't loss.
Changing the level of Sl kill the Ace284' System or any of others.
Making rules is made to cancel bad human reaction.

You have to stay like that until the DD begin in up trend. so you change with 1% , then 1,5% then 2% .
Like this, if you begin in the bad series time, you are going to loss only the quater of the DD of the set UP.
So this setup has a max DD possible ( as far as the passed has informed us) of 37%, that's mind that if you have bad luck as you said , you don't have to be worry about that because you"ld loss only 37%/ 4 of your MM, that's mind DD/4 too and at 10% in the most bad possibilitie.
  • #3,609
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:41pm Sep 10, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting GKnight
I will take profit as normal, but if moves against me will only open a hedging position (not use a SL at the other end of the box)... Once turns back I will TP on heading and watch... To see if another hedging position may be needed.
if does not turn back and really going the wrong direction I can close the trade and hedging position for a loss of only 1/2 the box size.

So all is the same as Aces System but I am using a hedging position (instead of a SL) to stay in while risking less pips then by stop loss.
Thanks Gknight,

It can be consider and will try it...
  • #3,610
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:43pm Sep 10, 2009 6:43pm
[quote=FXLab;

My results this week are: GBPJPY (2 trades): 1st lot LONG = -50 pips
....[/quote]

Hi FXlab.

For me still on the road with one trade.

My MM 2%, ( in demo) pemiss me to take two lots with these variances :
- I takes the max rules OF ACE , that mind box+buffer 20 + spread 3( admit volatility on spread so mine is (1,5x 2)).
- as the two lots goal Tp1 ( witch is 1 box+buffer 20 No ? 190 seems too much..) I close one with profit, change my SL at range box and, near free of losses, let running the other at TP3.

So, like this, this week, I just get one trade short with two lots.

in the moment, like the market is not favorale to this system, I don't wait more and have close one of the two lots with half box loss.

the other one still running short, it is at -68pip at this instant.
  • #3,611
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:53pm Sep 10, 2009 6:53pm
Even though there are lots of important news coming out but there is still not much of movement for GJ and EJ, they are still ranging.

I am doubt what is happening to the market these few weeks? Anyone know or have any opinion? I would take note on it and beware when same situation is/ will happen.

Btw, if you draw a channel on EJ and GJ 1 hour chart, you will find both of it going opposite direction. Normally, its go on the same direction (co-relation) but not now.
  • #3,612
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:55pm Sep 10, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting pips info
Even though there are lots of important news coming out but there is still not much of movement for GJ and EJ, they are still ranging.

I am doubt what is happening to the market these few weeks? Anyone know or have any opinion? I would take note on it and beware when same situation is/ will happen.

Btw, if you draw a channel on EJ and GJ 1 hour chart, you will find both of it going opposite direction. Normally, its go on the same direction (co-relation) but not now.
Huge news, School starting again, student loans totaling the millions to billions, there are many factors that could contribute to market characteristics this time of year.
  • #3,613
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:32pm Sep 10, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting Scanner
Hi FXlab.

For me still on the road with one trade.

My MM 2%, ( in demo) pemiss me to take two lots with these variances :
- I takes the max rules OF ACE , that mind box+buffer 20 + spread 3( admit volatility on spread so mine is (1,5x 2)).
- as the two lots goal Tp1 ( witch is 1 box+buffer 20 No ? 190 seems too much..) I close one with profit, change my SL at range box and, near free of losses, let running the other at TP3.

So, like this, this week, I just get one trade short with two lots.

in the moment, like the market is not favorale...

The SL of 50 pips is based on forward testing on the GBPJPY pair. It is based on the smallest drawdown (MAE) of my winning trades. The 190 pips is based on the smallest "peak" (MFE) of my winning trades.

I still use the same box as ACE, but have adjusted my SL and TP1. Since my SL is greatly reduced, I am risking only 1% which is probably where I need to be based on the recent market conditions.
  • #3,614
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:09pm Sep 10, 2009 11:09pm
I was about to say this thread is so quiet you could hear a pin drop, but then I did some research and found out . . . .
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,615
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:12pm Sep 10, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting yen44x
I was about to say this thread is so quiet you could hear a pin drop, but then I did some research and found out . . . .

omfg yen, awesome, it's good to have your humor here during the dark days of the system.
  • #3,616
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:16pm Sep 10, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting yen44x
I was about to say this thread is so quiet you could hear a pin drop, but then I did some research and found out . . . .
Classic....
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #3,617
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:16pm Sep 10, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting pips info
I am doubt what is happening to the market these few weeks? Anyone know or have any opinion? I would take note on it and beware when same situation is/ will happen. .
Maybe we should have all listened to this advice back on July 29, because the summer "blues" in trading is more or less an annual phenomenon:

Quoting droland
This current market is not good for Ace's system. We may have to wait until September. Be careful.

dr
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,618
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:19pm Sep 10, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting Pharoah
omfg yen, awesome, it's good to have your humor here during the dark days of the system.
The problem, or blessing (depending on whether you like my jokes or not), is there is a lot of free time on a weekly system, especially when you're stopped out about 17 minutes into the week.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,619
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:22pm Sep 10, 2009 11:22pm
Quoting yen44x
The problem, or blessing (depending on whether you like my jokes or not), is there is a lot of free time on a weekly system, especially when you're stopped out about 17 minutes into the week.
Very true, I've been for the most part away from my PC, I figure I'll just take this week as vacation time, spend it with my little one.
  • #3,620
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:32pm Sep 10, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting Pharoah
Very true, I've been for the most part away from my PC, I figure I'll just take this week as vacation time, spend it with my little one.
Then it's time well-spent . . Good for you and even better for your little one.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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