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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #196,341
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:08am Sep 10, 2009 11:08am
Quoting mktjong
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
Thanks bro!
  • #196,342
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:08am Sep 10, 2009 11:08am
Quoting rgitt05
it is almost London close for the big Kaboom..

It slow motion kaboom in 3D

Quiet before the storm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_Kka...eature=related


LOL, now that's the mother of all volatility breakouts
  • #196,343
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:09am Sep 10, 2009 11:09am
interesting thing.
e-u rally is on low volume, every day we see higher highs but lower volumes.

also, u-j moves down with the same pattern. lower lows every day, but also lower volumes. and look at the last 2 candles, small body compared to wicks.
if this is a breakout, why are volumes low??? oh, and check out weekly volumes as well for u-j, even better .

reversal? this would mean, u-j up and e-u down = or a strong dollar. what would happen to pound and g-j?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u_d.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: u-j_d.gif Size: 26 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #196,344
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:14am Sep 10, 2009 11:14am
Eventually the volume stops and the sky falls out..




Thanks for the updates

Quoting Scrat
interesting thing.
e-u rally is on low volume, every day we see higher highs but lower volumes.

also, u-j moves down with the same pattern. lower lows every day, but also lower volumes. and look at the last 2 candles, small body compared to wicks.
if this is a breakout, why are volumes low??? oh, and check out weekly volumes as well for u-j, even better .

reversal? this would mean, u-j up and e-u down = or a strong dollar. what would happen to pound and g-j?
[
  • #196,345
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:16am Sep 10, 2009 11:16am
Quoting Scrat
interesting thing.
e-u rally is on low volume, every day we see higher highs but lower volumes.

also, u-j moves down with the same pattern. lower lows every day, but also lower volumes. and look at the last 2 candles, small body compared to wicks.
if this is a breakout, why are volumes low??? oh, and check out weekly volumes as well for u-j, even better .

reversal? this would mean, u-j up and e-u down = or a strong dollar. what would happen to pound and g-j?
This would likely be to GBP ..
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_7_26.gif

http://www.smileycentral.com/sig.jsp...p=ZNxdm824VRUS
  • #196,346
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:21am Sep 10, 2009 11:21am
does anyone know what is going on these days... looks like everybody is out after london session closes, nothing happens anymore...
any major news or something this week?
?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #196,347
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:23am Sep 10, 2009 11:23am
market maybe waiting on bond auction at 1pm

Also,Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks



Quoting Scrat
does anyone know what is going on these days... looks like everybody is out after london session closes, nothing happens anymore...
any major news or something this week?
?
[
  • #196,348
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:29am Sep 10, 2009 11:29am
Quoting Scrat
does anyone know what is going on these days... looks like everybody is out after london session closes, nothing happens anymore...
any major news or something this week?
?
Guessing, but generally this year I think a secular/real reduction in FX liquidity across the board.

Read a disturbing interview with head of OANDA in some global financial magazine recently (a new mag, but forgot the name). He said liquidity in spot FX markets has dropped precipitously since last year.

Couldn't believe the figure he gave, but it was way more than 50% (something like 75%). Hard to believe. But why is EU so whippy now, as if it's USD/CAD etc. or a thin currency?

He said banks are giving brokers far less liquidity/leeway. Makes sense. FX is a bank market; banks have been crushed since last year.

(See EU last 20 mins or so on 1min scale: just whipping around, no depth or liquidity)
  • #196,349
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:32am Sep 10, 2009 11:32am
Quoting mktjong
This would likely be to GBP ..
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_7_26.gif
no it wouldnt. UJ controlls GJ, if UJ turns around, GJ flies, regardless what GU is doing. UJ came up 40 pips off its low, GJ shot up 100 pips and in the same time GU hardly moved.

the currencies cant all move in the same direction, if dollar is down then eu and gu etc are up but so is yen lately. so gbp up, eur up, yen up = choppy crap and hardly any movement. if usdjpy moves up then gj wll move up at least twice as many pips, even if gu drops a bit.

eu doesnt look whippy at all to me, looks pretty smooth. the yen pairs are whippy as hell, seems to be common last couple of weeks (but you wont get liquidity after london closes AND NY is at lunch i guess).
  • #196,350
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:37am Sep 10, 2009 11:37am
Quoting ewokuk
no it wouldnt. UJ controlls GJ, if UJ turns around, GJ flies, regardless what GU is doing. UJ came up 40 pips off its low, GJ shot up 100 pips and in the same time GU hardly moved.
I also noted that UJ has greater impact on crosses. The move south can be with declining Gold, growing DX, dropping GBP, Euro and strong Yen.
  • #196,351
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:37am Sep 10, 2009 11:37am
Quoting Scrat
does anyone know what is going on these days... looks like everybody is out after london session closes, nothing happens anymore...
any major news or something this week?
?
GOLD..

spiked 800 points in 70min, then retraced 400 points, now at the Hights again..

Im saying the woodoo component in our trading is GOLD.. been burried for last 2Y, now awakened.. Looks like get tired and we are going to see a pullback next few days, before next spike to 1033.

Everytime Gold spiked up EU and GU went up too, only b/c of USD weakening..

Nothing more, nothing else.. (new kid onthe block)
  • #196,352
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:43am Sep 10, 2009 11:43am
i'm sure it will go even lower than it is now. and next step, probably very soon, would be to dramatically cut the leverage - if not just get rid of it completely, because leverage is bad when the herd is starting to use it wisely.

smart money are on the side and waiting for a signal to jump in, or just waiting for the world to crumble down...

Quoting bit9ret
Guessing, but generally this year I think a secular/real reduction in FX liquidity across the board.

Read a disturbing interview with head of OANDA in some global financial magazine recently (a new mag, but forgot the name). He said liquidity in spot FX markets has dropped precipitously since last year.

Couldn't believe the figure he gave, but it was way more than 50% (something like 75%). Hard to believe. But why is EU so whippy now, as if it's USD/CAD etc. or a thin currency?

He said banks are giving brokers far less liquidity/leeway....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #196,353
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:48am Sep 10, 2009 11:48am
Quoting ewokuk
the yen pairs are whippy as hell, seems to be common last couple of weeks (but you wont get liquidity after london closes AND NY is at lunch i guess).
YES, if the legs of the crosses are offsetting each other=no trend in the cross GJ, EJ etc.

But liquidity generally irrespective of time of day (obviously) is much lower than it was last year. Another clue may be when you get EU, EJ etc. bouncing between 5-10 round number increments repeatedly (it's just bank algos playing games, while the bks earn the spread).

OANDA head cites some pretty catastrophic figures of the trend in liqudity. Not sure if I believe his figures.
  • #196,354
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:50am Sep 10, 2009 11:50am
yes, gold, another very interesting thing... i was actually expecting a big drop in the 700 area before the final demise...

so now we see news everywhere that global economy not only stopped falling but started showing signs of recovery (weak, but recovery). but gold continues to rise. big money probably didn't hear the news, eh? and keeps buying gold instead of stocks. right...

oh man i'm so tired of these games...

Quoting Piters
GOLD..

spiked 800 points in 70min, then retraced 400 points, now at the Hights again..

Im saying the woodoo component in our trading is GOLD.. been burried for last 2Y, now awakened.. Looks like get tired and we are going to see a pullback next few days, before next spike to 1033.

Everytime Gold spiked up EU and GU went up too, only b/c of USD weakening..

Nothing more, nothing else.. (new kid onthe block)
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #196,355
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:54am Sep 10, 2009 11:54am
On gold, I've heard it's China playing a big part for the first time. May be a sign of moving off dollar holdings, diversifying. Odd for them to suddenly get interested in gold (they always have a reason: a vote of non-confidence in US generally and USD).

One thing on US/USD--and without getting political for or against--is that Obama admin seems adrift/floundering (just read New York Times on admin--and they are strong supporters). Shades of Carter. Remember USD then.

Again disclaimer: not for or against him/policy. Just the impression of press of record of admin.
  • #196,356
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:26pm Sep 10, 2009 12:26pm
can I ask something ???

ARE WE THERE YET ??

  • #196,357
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:33pm Sep 10, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting Piters
can I ask something ???

ARE WE THERE YET ??

I dont realy understand Your quastion :d
  • #196,358
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:36pm Sep 10, 2009 12:36pm
What happen? I took a short nap.. Did the GJ fall yet? Where is msniper with his EW counting waves? Did he miscalculated?



Quoting Piters
can I ask something ???

ARE WE THERE YET ??

[
  • #196,359
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:41pm Sep 10, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting LukaszH
I dont realy understand Your quastion :d

nothing serious mate.. just a local joke with some Bull friends.. Im still waiting on Bull signal..

joke mate.. sorry
  • #196,360
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:42pm Sep 10, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting Piters
nothing serious mate.. just a local joke with some Bull friends.. Im still waiting on Bull signal..

joke mate.. sorry
gj going to clean the toilet soon
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