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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #1,041
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:22am Sep 9, 2009 8:22am
Quoting kk007
I took this failed trade. Is it a good setup?
i can't see well on your chart, so i looked at my chart and it was not a pin. moreover, the trend is not A+. compare your chart with jankone's chart this morning, you'll see the difference.
  • #1,042
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:26am Sep 9, 2009 8:26am
Quoting dhh
that makes three of us
I saw it but decided not to.... purely based on the fact that I am sticking to with trend pins at the moment but a good trade for all regardless

well done folks.

Tom
  • #1,043
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:34am Sep 9, 2009 8:34am
Quoting dhh
i can't see well on your chart, so i looked at my chart and it was not a pin. moreover, the trend is not A+. compare your chart with jankone's chart this morning, you'll see the difference.
Thanks dhh for your reply. The pinbar is in the blue rectangle highlighted. I look mainly in the divergence and pinbar, if the trend is not good enough, I expect a smaller take-profit rather than a failure. I've compared it with Jankone one. Can you explain why the trend is not good enough? You means it is not counter-trend enough? Isn't it more risky to trade counter-trend?
Attached Image
  • #1,044
  • Sep 9, 2009 9:44am Sep 9, 2009 9:44am
Quoting kk007
Can you explain why the trend is not good enough? You means it is not counter-trend enough? Isn't it more risky to trade counter-trend?
I understand why you ask that question.

The whole effectiveness of the divergence/Pinbar combo is to catch a "counter trend move" so if there is no defined trend the strategy becomes less efficient
  • #1,045
  • Sep 9, 2009 9:49am Sep 9, 2009 9:49am
Quoting CkM8
I understand why you ask that question.

The whole effectiveness of the divergence/Pinbar combo is to catch a "counter trend move" so if there is no defined trend the strategy becomes less efficient
Thanks CkM8. I agree with you. Since dhh said the trend is not A+, I am confused how dhh evaluate a good trend.
  • #1,046
  • Sep 9, 2009 10:43am Sep 9, 2009 10:43am
Quoting kk007
Thanks CkM8. I agree with you. Since dhh said the trend is not A+, I am confused how dhh evaluate a good trend.
Spend some time on demo, and read through the thread and the ryanmcd.doc, will help tons. I don't know if your trading live or what, but demoing is probably the most underestimated thing one can do Gl
  • #1,047
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:12pm Sep 9, 2009 6:12pm
So, up to now. No one can precisely tell why it is not a good setup here? Perhaps, it is a failure setup, I will think.
  • #1,048
  • Sep 9, 2009 7:16pm Sep 9, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting kk007
So, up to now. No one can precisely tell why it is not a good setup here? Perhaps, it is a failure setup, I will think.
In terms of a Pin + countertrend you could basically chalk it down to a failed setup.



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Strangely however it did not close as a pin across three of my live feeds ()and it had a similar close on all of them. ( I am assuming I have the correct pin bar here but I think I have because I took note of surrounding levels on your chart )

To be honest you got extremely unlucky on this one considering it ended up tanking afterwords.

However just looking at it now the way it behaved afterwords on the next three bars - The doji's which got progressively smaller in range, was a good clue that this was one to not be taking a full loss on, as we all know the best setups take off. RyanMCD talks about this a lot, but I digress.




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However, I will draw your attention to this. Look at how huge the uptrend is. Look at how tiny the divergence and pin is in comparison to all upward momentum.

A lot of those countertrend pins are purely profit taking showing up on charts and theres no real bear pressure (except at very VERY precise points of a chart) and the bulls usually come in hard on the retrace.

I have very very strict rules when it comes to taking a pin which is as countertrend as that one was.

This is why the 5Minute chart is so difficult and the Daily chart is so much easier, a lot of these pins are useless, especially if one is looking for 1:1 RR. Spread becomes a huge issue when you are looking for 1:1 with a stop of ten, it actually takes away any edge you have to be honest.

With conditions like these at the moment people should look at your 21ema and 50sma and just keep trading with the trend, the only time your going to be wrong is at the very top. R:R of 1:4 and 1:5 is what I reckon people should be looking for.

Regards,
Jig
  • #1,049
  • Sep 9, 2009 7:44pm Sep 9, 2009 7:44pm
Thanks Jigsaw,

I can see you have good experience on using the system and pinbar/outside bar in general. The most important thing is you go straight to talk about the key issue. Thanks for your reply.

Most of my pinbar trading so far are failed. This time is no difference. I know many people use it with good success, but I prefer to use other methods.

Best Regards,

kk
  • #1,050
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:45am Sep 10, 2009 1:45am
Quoting Jigsaw
This is why the 5Minute chart is so difficult and the Daily chart is so much easier, a lot of these pins are useless, especially if one is looking for 1:1 RR. Spread becomes a huge issue when you are looking for 1:1 with a stop of ten, it actually takes away any edge you have to be honest.

With conditions like these at the moment people should look at your 21ema and 50sma and just keep trading with the trend, the only time your going to be wrong is at the very top. R:R of 1:4 and 1:5 is what I reckon people should be looking for.

Regards,
Jig...
Jig,

Good post - These CT pins look ok on paper (charts) but factor in spread and you are really up against it!!!

Thats why I'm trend trading only at the moment.

happy pips all

Tom
  • #1,051
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:12am Sep 10, 2009 4:12am
Have just seen this one. For anyone interested.
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  • #1,052
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:59am Sep 10, 2009 4:59am
Quoting kk007
Have just seen this one. For anyone interested.
CT trade and divergence is weak - there isn't really any on my feed (Alpari UK) well its flat as opposed to a gradient in the opposite direction if you know what I mean.

Tom
  • #1,053
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:53am Sep 10, 2009 5:53am
1. Weak Div.:

It is similar to the one posted on page 1 of this thread.
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8494/89039042.gif

2. CT.

Depend on the timeframe to be viewed. See fig.
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  • #1,054
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:33am Sep 10, 2009 6:33am
Great trade...!!

Nice Pin bar AFTER down trend... and a nice divergence...making money is that simple if we follow the rules..thanks jankone..!!

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...8fffd19fbb.gif

Alex
  • #1,055
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:49am Sep 10, 2009 6:49am

I've been in this one. closed at +1. ( no power etc. ) still strong downtrend.

Quoting kk007
Have just seen this one. For anyone interested.

  • #1,056
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:50am Sep 10, 2009 6:50am
it's was really BIG Pin bar

good job man


Quoting alex2412
Great trade...!!

Nice Pin bar AFTER down trend... and a nice divergence...making money is that simple if we follow the rules..thanks jankone..!!

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...8fffd19fbb.gif

Alex
  • #1,057
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:05am Sep 10, 2009 7:05am
Quoting CkM8
I understand why you ask that question.

The whole effectiveness of the divergence/Pinbar combo is to catch a "counter trend move" so if there is no defined trend the strategy becomes less efficient
i agree 100%. both the trend and counter-trend setups require a 'trend' to start with, and the quality of the trend affect directly the outcome of the setups. unfortunately, identifying a trend is usually a big struggle for most new people(i'm still learning and improving myself).

some people use lows/highs, some people use sup/res, some people use trendlines, some people just use visual, etc. and some people use combinations of these. as i trade more, i personally rely more and more on the visual(the look of the chart)(i still have old habit to use others though). i can't put it in exact words, but it's like keeping it simple and image you have the eyes of a 3 year old, and then have the faith to take action base on what you see.

said all the above, we should always keep in mind that nothing is 100%. even if we find the best setup, loss could still happen. we need to do it long enough to let the odds of the system play out. think of flipping a coin...

i will make another post on charts. jigsaw has a good post too.
  • #1,058
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:45am Sep 10, 2009 7:45am
Quoting kk007
Have just seen this one. For anyone interested.
Yep, I took this one! Got out at B/e when it didn't rally within first 3 bars...Could have easily been a 1R loss for me though...

Note the resistance formed at 1.4540ish from previous swing low.
Splitting hairs here, but EMA50 is down...we know what that means...

Missed the PA trade off 1.46 as shown... but that's countertrend with no divergence.... so not for this thread anyway...

Josh
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  • #1,059
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:52am Sep 10, 2009 7:52am
Quoting kk007
1. Weak Div.:

It is similar to the one posted on page 1 of this thread.
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8494/89039042.gif

2. CT.

Depend on the timeframe to be viewed. See fig.
kk007,

you make good points no doubt and the trade is very similar to the one on page 1

If your looking to play a retrace of a smaller timeframe to return to a trend on a larger timeframe then this IMO isn't going to happen very often (nice when it does mind you!)

To be honest I think on these short timeframes you have to be ultra picky and I only need one reason not to enter a trade and the div would be it for me. Remeber on this timeframe you don't have to wait long until the next oppertunity!!!

you could continue to trade these and many may prove profitable - I have said before I don't play them yet as I am looking for trend trades only so really my opinion counts for nowt so to speak as I have no expirence of them but I do watch them go by.

I guess it may well of been a good trade - if it meets all the criteria and still fails thats ok - it was still a good trade - no one gets 100% win rate!!

just my 2 (worthless) pips worth

Tom
  • #1,060
  • Sep 10, 2009 8:05am Sep 10, 2009 8:05am
Thanks all the replies. Although I am not trading this method, but still want to learn how to trade it. Hope it is not a bad thing to post some unsuccessful cases here, for education purpose. Glad to see some of you did enter the trade but got out with no loss.
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