fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

I am setting up this thread, to post my trading notes, analysis, thoughts on markets, results, comments on my mood and all that is related to trading.

I'm an independent full time trader, trading a 5 figure real account. I have nothing to sell or to prove. First objective of this thread is to serve as a personal tool.
Trading is a job, it's hard work, and mental capital is of paramount importance to me, so I will not have fights with other people. If you can't behave like you would in a real work environment, I will block you from posting in this thread.

I'm open to positive comments/questions from other traders, don't hesitate, but don't forget that google is your friend, before asking obvious things

Summer is over and trading volatility / volume should pick up again from here.
Will restart with lower volume until I can get my normal trading rhythm.

Eurusd in breakout mode, looks like we'll try take the 1.4447.
Potential target could be at 1.4621. The 61.8% of the 2008 move retracement.

1.4412 is the monthly HVA and should serve as support.
1.4344 is the weekly HVA and could be support too.

Market is obviously long on the daily/weekly.
Only longs are allowed, trying to buy dips, and milk new highs.

Note: market often change direction after holidays.
Special care should be taken if we start to see reversal patterns, especially on the daily time frame. But so far, nothing to worry about.

Potential short term targets:

- 1.4621 The 61.8% retracement of the 2008 range.
- 1.4704 The 161.8% fib extension of the last 2 swing points 1.3748-1.4339
- 1.4719 The 2008 week 51 swing point. This one is critical as it would open the door to further upside and a possible retest of eurusd all time high above 1.60.

Market should consolidate today.
Opec and beige book are the 2 events today.
Long opportunity could be found between the former yearly high 1.4447 and the monthly value high at 1.4412.

Yesterday's new yearly high at 1.4535 made the week34 1.4046 the new swing low, replacing the former week25 1.3748 low. This is equivalent to the 78.985 high in the US dollar index, the 930.60 low in gold and 58.30 in crude oil (could be made 67.04 if crude get back above 75.00 post opec meeting)

I'll let the market fix the new swing high. That will occur when a new high will not be made for the next 3 periods (days or weeks depending on the chart and development)

Market is still trending up, making HH and HL on daily and weekly.

On the daily / weekly chart, re-testing of the 1.4300 zone would be a first signal of a possible deeper pullback.
Risk would then be adjusted, to take into account a potential deeper pullback.

Almost at target 1.4621, would need another small push.

Let's see if we consolidate today, or continue to push higher.

Watching development in gold. Nice channel / bull flag.

We're the 2nd Thursday of the quarter, switching to December future contracts today.

Nicely defined channel in S&P 500 4H, entering resistance now

Bounce time ?

Crude oil long opportunity

targets 72.30 and 75.00

Long

1.4621 Target hit overnight

Flat - waiting for long re-entry.

1.4494 VPOC could act as support.
1.4535-1.4494 could be a good buy zone.

This week range so far 1.4298-1.4628 - 330 pips range
Midpoint at 1.4463

Former high at 1.4447

We hit the 61.8% of the 2008 range at 1.4621, rejection could send us back to the 50% point 1.4183 and the 31.8% at 1.3746, in the next days weeks.

Yesterday feels like a distribution day with good short entry.
If I could trade counter trend (which I can't by my trading rules), I would have entered short above 1.4614

It's Friday! TGIF - No need to force the trades...

Watching S&P 500 consolidating above the channel.

Below 1038.50 we could tank back into the channel.

Markets at inflexion point, watching the channels for clues...

No US data on Monday.

There is a window possibility for profit taking after today's US data and before Tuesday's US open.

50% Retracement would put us at 1.4463, would be a test of the former high at 1.4447.

We jumped from the 50% to the 61.8% 2008 retracement during the last 6 sessions, 1.4183 - 1.4621.

50%-61.8% Midpoint gives us 1.4402 just below last month value at 1.4412.

Let's see the reaction here

EURUSD opened below Friday's value and trading lower. It's in pullback mode.

The 1.4494 - 1.4412 zone could provide a support bounce zone.
EURUSD will stay weak unless it can get back above 1.4580, were it would get neutral and 1.4620 where it will get it bullish status back on the daily.

On the weekly, we opened in last week value, so nothing changed, it's neutral to bullish, unless we can breach 1.4486 and trade below it.

In fact it's 1.4466, with the latest high made last week. Will watch that as it's slightly below last week value but not that deep into pullback territory.

Note that 3 days breakdown is 1.4467