Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

gu and es strong ...... that is all that is preventing gj testing 151 today

not sure what asias reaction to markets will be

TA now can only be applied in the range of 151 - 153. But still until a clear breakout from 151 or 153 .. we will never know..

by Claus Vogt


Yesterday, gold broke the $1,000-an-ounce barrier, after rising from $950 per ounce last week.

It was the precious metal’s fifth run-up to the round number. And now there are many signs indicating that yesterday’s decisive break is of major importance.

Take a look at the following chart …

As you can see, from November 2008 through February 2009, gold rose from around $700 to nearly $1,000.



The ensuing consolidation took six months … and ended last week. This consolidation has the form of a triangle, which typically confirms a trend.

With last week’s strong breakout above the upper boundary of this triangle, a clear buy signal was generated. And that explains gold’s move above $1,000.

Now, Momentum Indicators and Price Targets Point to More Gains Ahead …

The high momentum of this move is bullish. In spite of this healthy thrust, medium-term momentum indicators are not yet overbought. As you can see in the lower panel of my chart above, the price momentum oscillator (PMO) is still in neutral territory and just starting to turn up. In my opinion, that means there is a lot of room for additional price gains.

So how high could gold go from here?

Well, the width of that triangle formation can be used to calculate a minimum price target. It’s around $1,100.

A 10 percent move may not sound too exciting, but it’s just a minimum target. Plus, there is a very important additional message coming with this price target …

A Rise Above the Resistance Is Extremely Bullish

You have to step back a bit and look at a longer-term gold chart to realize the significance of a clear break above the resistance zone around the $1,000 level.

Here’s a weekly chart …


As you can see, gold started a huge consolidation period in March 2008. It reached a low of approximately $700, which is a clear support area. Then it moved back up to the $1,000 level.

This whole movement can be seen as nothing more than a typical correction taking place during a long-term uptrend.

A break above its upper boundary around the $1,000 level signals the end of this huge consolidation and the start of the next medium-term uptrend.

The minimum target of this larger formation amounts to $1,300. And since gold is in a long-term bull market, I see even this area as just an interim target.

Longer term I expect much higher prices. Here are the reasons why:


Numerous fundamental factors all but guarantee higher gold prices.
As a consequence of the current financial and economic crisis government debt is going through the roof — not just in the U.S., but all over the world.

Worldwide central banks are printing money like there is no tomorrow.

Gold demand is rising due to rising wealth in emerging economies where the yellow metal is still favored as a store of value.

Gold supply is stagnating or even slightly shrinking — despite the metal’s price rise since 2001. This is because it’s getting ever more difficult and expensive to get gold out of the earth.

Finally, central bankers who were very eager to sell government gold at much lower prices a few years ago are getting increasingly reluctant to keep doing so. Emerging market central banks are even buying.
So with this important technical breakout now behind us, and these fundamentals in place, I expect the long-term bull market to continue. Much higher highs are very likely.




I am still bearish as long as the daily TL holds and gold is still going up,up,up and GJ will go down, down, down..

IMHO and my account..

i am not sure about g-j going down yet - and for the newbies, i mean long term... weeks, months, not in the next 15min like some of you may think...

yes, we had a double top, but i have not seen mid 146 broken yet, so until i see that i will only trade big in the direction of the main trend (weekly). which is up at this moment.
our daily swing points down as long as 155 area is not broken, so at the moment i am waiting for either a test of 155 or a break downwards of current h4 upswing - 151.25, which would mean a test of 149.7 and below.

and here are my charts:

- weekly: price is above PVP weekly - 149.67; long term = bullish AS LONG as price stays above 149.67.
- daily: price is below PVP daily - 154.85/155.50; medium term = bearish; a test of PVP weekly is expected AS LONG as price stays below PVP daily.
- h4: price is around PVP h4 - 152.46; short term = no clear direction, but slightly bearish at the moment. IF 151.29 is broken, then i expect a test of PVP weekly; IF 153 is broken, then i expect a test of PVP daily.

Well, I mean for swing trade long term.. Their is gold or oil that may cause the TA breakout for GJ next week fundamentals or this week..

Wait and see.. Low volume( consolidation)

I posted this charts for weeks so I am just showing the progress of the price action for daily forecast..You are right the major S/R needs to break for confirmation..The market is still trading at low volume..I would expect by next week for some major price action or over the weekend.

IMHO

Who knows when this beast will breakout but I have my eyes on Gold and oil as the leading indiactors atm...UJ is setup for a major breakout if the lows is broken completely.

USD/JPY pushing through a big support at 91.74. That’s the low from July 13. There are some small reaction lows at 89.71 (February 11) and 88.60 (February 3), but the next big support is the big trend low from late January at 87.13

Nice chart layout..

The US 10-year note auction is next up, with results expected shortly after 1 pm EDT. Another solid auction could lend the ailing USD some support, while a weak result could add to the selling pressure.

Thanks Scrat! Great overview with explanation.

Just to let you guys know, the 30sma and the 100sma just crossed today on the daily.

why are you using these 2? why not, let's say, 20 and 50? or 50 and 200?
did you find any connection between g-j trend speed on a tf and your MAs? if yes, what is it and on what tf?

I guess now we have the following.
GU is in uptrend, but the area ahead, 1.655-1.67, is rather tough - lots of res lvls there, 1.6587, 1.6610 (h4 shoulder line), 1.6655.
UJ is in strong downtrend (on all major timeframes, from weekly to h1) and just opened the way to 91.1 and 90.8 levels.
Pound looks to be weaker than euro at the moment and its growing would be more tranquil in the nearest term.
This way i am still bearish on GY, but don't anticipate levels under 149-150 this / first half of next week.

Just woke up.. got a very very bad headache.. So, seems like we are heading south right now... Hopefully we can see a breakout of 151.50 to further confirms this move..

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure. Some one suggested it to me not to long ago.

Oh.. we have new low for UJ.. well that added weigh to the bearishness of this move.. I guess we now have a very2 good chance to break 151.50..

and a chart on e-u, looks like next target is 1.47 area. and then, if broken, 1.55.

It's still a bit on the bullish side .. imo. But highest it can go is 153 and it's gonna range too. Possible range as mentioned by Malcolmb earlier 151-153.
Now, sideline seems to be the best bet

well, at the moment, since daily trend seems to be pointing down, the safest attitude is not to figure out where it could go up but rather trade a breakout to the down side on h4 chart.

Dear trader, you might wan take a look

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8244600.stm

get ready your car to ride down.

seems we stuck in this crazy channel ...153 to 151.50ish with intermediate channel 152 to 153

for those able to trade it gj has moved 600 pip in major moves in the channel this week so far .... one would just need speed to keep awake lol ...reality is just catch US moves who needs swing trading really ? lol

on the larger picture this could be a wave 2 up move that may end around 153,.5 or if that break 155. howver price is having a hard time moving up

1.4900+