hi guys im a bit of a newb on here but i was just wondering what everyone's thought are on the long term for the EURUSD and GBPUSD? im about to start going live, ive tried to trade daily but i dont have the time really and so would prefer to stick to long term investments and try and catch a ride on a trend for a few months. I have seen so much talk about ST trends rather than LT so i would be interested to hear your thoughts...
My opinions based on reading a lot of people's on here and various other websites are this, please put down your own opinions as I'm sure they'llbe different and probably more correct!
EURUSD - since mid 2008 last year where it topped 16039 there was a heavy decline to 12329 and the past year seems to have been spent climbing back up to 14492 where it is now. there were retracements at the 61.8% fib 14613 at the end of last year and another at 13470 (38.2% fib) and more recently at the 50% around 14174. It seems like its currently heading towards the 61.8% fib once more where a further retrace could occur? If it ploughs through it do you think that it could further retest the mid 2008 high of 16039? Or do you think it will fully reverse and take it back down as far as 13000 region allowing for a few further retracements?
GBPUSD - Again since mid 2008 there was a steady decline down to 13503 with retracements at 61.8% around 17620 but since the Jan 2009 low of 13504 ascended until just off the 50% fib level 16830 at the start of June and has since been trading between the 38.2 and 23.6 fib levels apart from a brief charge at the beginning of august where it hit 1.7043... im stumped as to where to expect it to go from here? if it goes below 1.5983 will it continue down to the 1.3503 low? alternatively do you think their might be another wave going up before a further retracement? perhaps to the 61.8 fib level again around 17500?
I was also wondering what your thought are on the recession and their impact on the currencies? with everyone's interest rates low at the moment and substantial changes expected of these over the next 18 months or so do you think these will affect the FX substantially enough to do what we do not expect?
Many thanks i look forward to hearing some of your thoughts
My opinions based on reading a lot of people's on here and various other websites are this, please put down your own opinions as I'm sure they'llbe different and probably more correct!
EURUSD - since mid 2008 last year where it topped 16039 there was a heavy decline to 12329 and the past year seems to have been spent climbing back up to 14492 where it is now. there were retracements at the 61.8% fib 14613 at the end of last year and another at 13470 (38.2% fib) and more recently at the 50% around 14174. It seems like its currently heading towards the 61.8% fib once more where a further retrace could occur? If it ploughs through it do you think that it could further retest the mid 2008 high of 16039? Or do you think it will fully reverse and take it back down as far as 13000 region allowing for a few further retracements?
GBPUSD - Again since mid 2008 there was a steady decline down to 13503 with retracements at 61.8% around 17620 but since the Jan 2009 low of 13504 ascended until just off the 50% fib level 16830 at the start of June and has since been trading between the 38.2 and 23.6 fib levels apart from a brief charge at the beginning of august where it hit 1.7043... im stumped as to where to expect it to go from here? if it goes below 1.5983 will it continue down to the 1.3503 low? alternatively do you think their might be another wave going up before a further retracement? perhaps to the 61.8 fib level again around 17500?
I was also wondering what your thought are on the recession and their impact on the currencies? with everyone's interest rates low at the moment and substantial changes expected of these over the next 18 months or so do you think these will affect the FX substantially enough to do what we do not expect?
Many thanks i look forward to hearing some of your thoughts
