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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #1,021
  • Sep 8, 2009 8:26am Sep 8, 2009 8:26am
Quoting dhh
icehocey, it's a huge effort to backtest years of data on the 5min chart, thanks for sharing the results.

just a few questions so i can put these results in better perspective:
1. are you testing a specific time interval(i.e. 7am-12pm ET) or all 24hrs. of data for everyday? which pair(s)?
2. are you testing both of the setups(trend & counter trend)? 19 trades, and 25 trades in a year seem to be few. how strict are your rules for taking a trade?
3. you mentioned you changed to a straight 20 pip take profit before. do you keep your stop below...
I was wondering a similar thing I did a quick backtest of fiber over July I think it was (don't have access to the data now as I'm at work) and I would have took 18 trades and out of that I had ~14 winners - I also messed around with a couple of differents TP stratgies (1:1, 1:2 and trail of 1R) (differing results depending on TP methods) the 1:1 had obviously the highest win rate whilst the 1:2 and trail where almost exactly the same more wins on the 1:2 but you get the occasional 5R or so trade with the trail...

but....

I backtested over the entire 24 hour period and ignored times of the day so there is no way I'd be able to get all these without sleeping/working/living etc!

I intend to go through a similar process with the other low spread pairs at some point to see what gives...

Strangly my live (demo) testing is not going anywhere near as well as my backtesting is at this stage so I'm looking at improving that at the moment as a priority! LOL!!!

take care all...

Tom
  • #1,022
  • Sep 8, 2009 8:41am Sep 8, 2009 8:41am
Took a loss here, that happens too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,023
  • Sep 8, 2009 8:49am Sep 8, 2009 8:49am
Quoting artov
Took a loss here, that happens too.
Artov,

Sorry about the loss but like you say it happens sometimes - nothings 100%!!!

whats your TP method for CT trades?

I'm still trading trend trades only so just being nosey so to speak!

Tom
  • #1,024
  • Sep 8, 2009 8:54am Sep 8, 2009 8:54am
Most of the times I go for a R:R ratio of 1:2. Before entering the setup I measure the range of the pinbar. I add 2 pips on top of it for spread and that would be my SL, then my TP would be 2x my SL.

I use a very handy tool which calculates the contract size depending on my SL and risk %

goforex.net/money-management-calculator.htm

Quoting fat_tom
Artov,

Sorry about the loss but like you say it happens sometimes - nothings 100%!!!

whats your TP method for CT trades?

I'm still trading trend trades only so just being nosey so to speak!

Tom
  • #1,025
  • Sep 8, 2009 9:03am Sep 8, 2009 9:03am
Quoting dhh
icehocey, it's a huge effort to backtest years of data on the 5min chart, thanks for sharing the results.

just a few questions so i can put these results in better perspective:
1. are you testing a specific time interval(i.e. 7am-12pm ET) or all 24hrs. of data for everyday? which pair(s)?
2. are you testing both of the setups(trend & counter trend)? 19 trades, and 25 trades in a year seem to be few. how strict are your rules for taking a trade?
3. you mentioned you changed to a straight 20 pip take profit before. do you keep your stop below...
1. Trade from 1200 to 2000 CET so roughly 6 am to 2 pm est?

2. You are right regarding to low amount of trades, I still have real difficulty trading countertrend. The more pressing issue when I first started out was to nail the with trend trades as they offer more R/R. So I have focused most if not all my efforts to get those down pat before going to CT.

3. I'll trail it in the form of getting to breakeven at 1:1 R/R, sometimes if I get a larger bar with a 7-8 pip stop and there is a trouble area around 4-5 I'll move the stop to breakeven at that area.
  • #1,026
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:53am Sep 8, 2009 11:53am
Quoting artov
Took a loss here, that happens too.
Hi Artov,

Your entry was not via Pinbar.

On a related note, if you combine those two top bars together, you get a nice "M10" (i.e. "synthetic") PB - they work too, as that one did.

Losses happen anyway, especially with CT trades. Part of doing this business.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,027
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:00pm Sep 8, 2009 12:00pm
To my understanding that is a pinbar, I'm sure others would agree with me.

Quoting Forex007
Hi Artov,

Your entry was not via Pinbar.

On a related note, if you combine those two top bars together, you get a nice "M10" (i.e. "synthetic") PB - they work too, as that one did.

Losses happen anyway, especially with CT trades. Part of doing this business.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jankone19.png Size: 41 KB
  • #1,028
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:56pm Sep 8, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting artov
Took a loss here, that happens too.
i was watching this too, but did not take it primarily due to news coming up:
10:45am EUR
Buba President Weber Speaks

don't know how significant this news is fundamentally, but any news spike could easily out run 5min bars. (as i remember this system is intend for market conditions like 'slow and steady', that's how i understood ryan's original posts. anyone different?)
  • #1,029
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:05pm Sep 8, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting fat_tom
I was wondering a similar thing I did a quick backtest of fiber over July I think it was (don't have access to the data now as I'm at work) and I would have took 18 trades and out of that I had ~14 winners - I also messed around with a couple of differents TP stratgies (1:1, 1:2 and trail of 1R) (differing results depending on TP methods) the 1:1 had obviously the highest win rate whilst the 1:2 and trail where almost exactly the same more wins on the 1:2 but you get the occasional 5R or so trade with the trail...

but....

I backtested over the...
i like my backtest results to be as good as real trading too unfortunately real time market has its ways to mess with our emotions/decisions espcially on the 5min. also backtest doesn't allow you to skip news times, or doesn't allow you to see the price fluntuations and your heart pumping with it, etc. that's why we all should forward test.
  • #1,030
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:15pm Sep 8, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting Icehocey77
1. Trade from 1200 to 2000 CET so roughly 6 am to 2 pm est?

2. You are right regarding to low amount of trades, I still have real difficulty trading countertrend. The more pressing issue when I first started out was to nail the with trend trades as they offer more R/R. So I have focused most if not all my efforts to get those down pat before going to CT.

3. I'll trail it in the form of getting to breakeven at 1:1 R/R, sometimes if I get a larger bar with a 7-8 pip stop and there is a trouble area around 4-5 I'll move the stop to breakeven at that...
thanks, i understand better now of what you do. it's true that some of the dynamics(stop adjustment etc.) of live trading apply to backtesting too. 'trading is hardly routine'. same setups, but every chart is different.
good luck with 2004 and forward..
  • #1,031
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:41pm Sep 8, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting artov
To my understanding that is a pinbar, I'm sure others would agree with me.
Sorry, I thought you entered where indicated by the arrow (as another arrow was point to RSI divergence too).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,032
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:20pm Sep 8, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting dhh
i like my backtest results to be as good as real trading too unfortunately real time market has its ways to mess with our emotions/decisions espcially on the 5min. also backtest doesn't allow you to skip news times, or doesn't allow you to see the price fluntuations and your heart pumping with it, etc. that's why we all should forward test.
Never a truer word spoken!
  • #1,033
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:33am Sep 9, 2009 5:33am
Hi, its my first post here....

This is the chart from GBP/USD, few minutes ago we got a nice pin bar and a nice divergence or do we? as i am still learning this system...

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...79f9868ef5.gif

I missed this, but if i did not, i will certainly take this trade (though it turns out to be a failure)..if any1 thinks that this shouldn't be taken can you please give me the reasons..thanks to jackone and everyone contributing to this thread..

Alex
  • #1,034
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:59am Sep 9, 2009 5:59am
I took this failed trade. Is it a good setup?
Attached Image
  • #1,035
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:46am Sep 9, 2009 6:46am
few minutes ago money in bank.
great pin+div. fast + 10.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,036
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:49am Sep 9, 2009 6:49am
Quoting Jankone
few minutes ago money in bank.
great pin+div. fast + 10.
Cheers!!!
I just took the same setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,037
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:56am Sep 9, 2009 6:56am
You are the boss

Quoting CkM8
Cheers!!!

I just took the same setup
  • #1,038
  • Sep 9, 2009 7:09am Sep 9, 2009 7:09am
Hey man,
it's bad, you are in sideways market and "hidden" pin.
Look at mine, they are usually at the high or low in trending market, not in chop.

Quoting alex2412
Hi, its my first post here....

This is the chart from GBP/USD, few minutes ago we got a nice pin bar and a nice divergence or do we? as i am still learning this system...

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...79f9868ef5.gif

I missed this, but if i did not, i will certainly take this trade (though it turns out to be a failure)..if any1 thinks that this shouldn't be taken can you please give me the reasons..thanks to jackone and everyone contributing to this thread..

Alex
  • #1,039
  • Sep 9, 2009 7:24am Sep 9, 2009 7:24am
Quoting Jankone
Hey man,
it's bad, you are in sideways market and "hidden" pin.
Look at mine, they are usually at the high or low in trending market, not in chop.
Wow..thanks alot..!! will post some picture next time..and i will make sure it goes well..!!
  • #1,040
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:17am Sep 9, 2009 8:17am
Quoting CkM8
Cheers!!!
I just took the same setup
that makes three of us
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