Pattern's Chemo-Electric Trading Journal

So, you put these two ideas together, and when there's two CAD red-flag news items in a row, you get repetitious patterning, and one along, a temporary balance bar from which pivots happen. Like the single CAD reds, the two CAD reds work with each other to make a compound turn twice as far along the chart. Again, nothing to trade on, if smalltime; just a guide.
Two CAD reds paired on 0807 1400 and 1700 gmt+2, producing a news-laden middle with an incredibly repetitious pattern between the two CAD reds; in this instance, the entirety was a longterm pivot, so there was no division of a run or an eventual pivot from the both of them. 1,2,3,4,5.
Thus, it seems that each CAD red is reliable as a temporary balance-bar-type pivot, and when it hooks up with another CAD red, unusual, reasonably logical things happen to change the timing of this formula.
(The reasoning is that Canada is mostly a former Great Britain colony, and a fairly sedate pair with occasional jumps. I demo-traded the u/c half a year ago, while scouting around different pairs. What struck me immediately were the long level holds with significant jumps between them. And, look at this. I mean, I know it's the Asian and all, but they don't make runways so horizontal. So that sendentariness's gotta rub off on its mother country at the news intersection from, with g/u, CAD. And, for now, it seems it does.)
Also, I included JPY, because Asia is big. (Another Duh.) Switzerland is small. Australia is, land-wise, big, only the currency is obscure. New Zealand is small. Another reason, I guess, to include JPY is that it's a big oil importer, where CAD is a big oil exporter. (Yeah, right. THat's a reason.)
JPY doesn't have a lot of red-flag news items. They're at weird times, such as a few minutes after the hour instead of on the hour.
I did find a good pairing with CAD on 0811, 1019 and 1515 gmt+2, respectively. Made some good temporary hz's and derivatives, until US, GB news arrived.
There's another interesting thing: JPY and the next prime news (USD, GB and EUR) item after it balance each other in a dip perfectly aligned, a little like two CAD reds in a row (1,2).
Just as there's a variety, to two CAD reds or a CAD and a main red, there is with JPY: In this example, a whole lot of pure jumping between widely-spread levels happened before this JPY news item on 0817 250gmt+2, and after a main news item. It seems that the further away the main news item before the JPY news is and, at the same time, the closer the next main news item is to the JPY news item, the simpler the dip pattern between the JPY and the next (main) news items.
Thus, with the rare variety, the gap pre-JPY was narrower than the one after. The post- gap lost its edge and never returned price until much later. Pic 1. JPY's level failed to balance price, and price fell precipitously (pic 2.) My new basing-patterns area method, discussed in 'EUR/USD Patterns' thread, would help decipher this unusual behavior; pic 3 shows the loosely-drawn hz's from those middle patterns. In pics 4 and 5, price returned to the JPY-next news item span levels (green dotted hz's included), producing an awaited fulfilling the usual of these two news items.
Get this -- This version within the JPY-main rule produced such an effect that it lasted another half-dozen screens! (Pics 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12.)

Recall that I've only studied two months of 1' TF data, so take the above rule with a very large grain of salt.


Okay, next I wanted to study why the main currencies' news items sometimes did well, and other times didn't.

Okay, next I wanted to study why the main currencies' news items sometimes did well, and other times didn't.

Well, first exceptions.
There's several jumps and logarithmic calming periods between these main news items. A pattern generally copies between each main news item, however skewed (5'TF shown.) A very regular, large basing pattern on the 5'TF probably had to do with the upward tendency to price. "bp" is balance pattern" on the 1'TF, "dbp" dipping balance pattern (such as JPY-main news item pairing do.) :




Let's see if a majority of this idea repeats in main news items, single or grouping.
Everything seems to be on the 5'TF and the 1'TF.

A second feature is the extra line: One very large balancing pattern on the overall around equidistant news items and a balance-only-justified pivot (white small-dashed vertical line).



Things seem justified on the 1'TF, too, as each scheduled news item that jumps in a certain way produces a logical change in the price-time line. Even a jump not linked to news does so.




Alright, here's where logic and appearance collide. You must sleuth through the miasma to get this:

Attachment

explanation:

vertical lines
A the ' balance-only-justified pivot ' in picture above; serves as an anchor
B a close-set pair of news items, with a reasonable jump
C There's a small logarithmic declination here that goes with 2's right-side pattern.
D a schedule news item; note that the scheduling is in play when line segment 2, a midline, is set
E (goes with last news item and line 5's midlining)
line segments
1a centered pattern
1b centered pattern (imaginary pivot not given a vertical line), whose length copies 1a's and whose midline point pivots 1b's portion into a pattern.
1c centered pattern, whose length copies 1a's. This one has a hold on the left side of its midline, just as the ' balance-only-justified pivot ' did with lots of down time between news items; then, it falls at the midline, just as 1b pivoted there also.
2 D sets this, with B, both news items; repeated pattern on either side of the midline division for 2. See, 1a-c and 2 divide the price-time line differently, which makes for the logic-appearance conflict noted for this picture's area.
3 finishes the distance to the next news item
-- (3a) signifies pattern repeated in 3b
(3b) repeated and opposed / flipped pattern of 3a
4 (separates the old and the new smaller lengths of 1 and 3)
5 midlines around news item for a repeated pattern that flips along x, y axes


The fall in the area after this two-fold binding of the price-time line is significant, even though a simple midlining does exist between shown news lines and E.

I need to practice the metaphor-derived chart study plan in post#1, to boil it down to size and drop the metaphor.

When price is trapped amongst screen-visible s/r hz's, using candle patterns alone is easy. When price leaves such a safe zone, one has to look beyond one's navel and figure the overall flow. That's where I lose it, and where I've put in the most theoretical effort.
The last few posts' method applies the spatial logic of midlines to news events. How it does so, because it works so well, may also work with pivots and basing patterns, if one includes the speed and volatility of the copied pattern area's midline, in midlines a and a' of this example:






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STORAGE for post #1:

This is for trading the GBP/USD on the 1' for daytrading.

I made up six methods that each move like a chess piece (pdf) --

king -- extremely wide spreads, usually with news
queen -- all red-flag main (gbp, usd, eur) news for pair concerned
castle (the one that moves side or updown, and switches with the king) -- off-pair red-flag news (cad, jpy)
bishop (the one that moves diagonally) -- parabolic trend approach
knight -- major basing-pattern areas
pawn -- minor basing-pattern areas

King's in the 1' thread post, queen's in this thread's 0829/302009 posts, castle's the same, bishop's on my computer still (kind of a relic from the prt days), knight's in the e/u patterns thread's 0827/282009 posts, and pawn's the same.
I'm not going to keep going with this comparison; it stays here until I boil the approaches down into one method.
The important thing seems to be that I use each method in proportion to its capability, rather than be a bottom feeder and trade minor basing-pattern areas all the time. Of course, I have to stay practiced enough to do this, and it's too easy to fall into doing that which I know the best, the pawn;then again, knowing when to hold or fold, I guess comparable to check and mate in chess only a phrase from cards, is the most important to the most-easily taken.

-----

Midline and pivot, bar spread trendline and pattern, area

Midline and pivot --
major basing-pattern areas
all red-flag main (gbp, usd) news for pair concerned
off-pair red-flag news (cad, jpy, eur)
1'TF version of pair-news midlining

bar spread trendline and pattern --
parabolic trend approach
extremely wide spreads, usually with news

.... took a break..

Separated EUR news and found it balanced news it was with, and it's usually with news. It's much closer than JPY or CAD, of course.

If bar spread trendlines depends on the larger anchors, that is, patterns or widely-spread bars, and midlines go between smaller anchors, that is, one time unit in the abstract...
Not.

What am I most interested in? Projecting the next tiny, small, average, big and huge move, each down to the tick.
Yeah, as if that's gonna happen.
Okay, then what CAN I do?

Well, bar spread trendlines need a lot of selecting to make any difference. Plus, they're usually not projective at all, at least as I know them. If you can anchor them to one idea, such as the next trend or an old side, they seem to work. Midlines are the same way, only one is usually not going to think of putting them anywhere as you would a bar spread trendline.
With both, I started the venture of justifying their selection as much as possible. I ... okay, I got it. I'll try and do bar spread trendlines from news to go with midlines on the 5'TF, of course on the respective 1'TF.

newsbar patterns

I draw bar spread trendlines and midlines off a pair's ff red-flag newsbars and the patterns between them. In this approach, bar spread trendlines with a lot of deviations or an excess of these trendlines tend to lose their sense of direction, and midlines brings in complex logic.

1027ESTAverage a 1'TF turn's area and a first 5'/15'TF-significant exit area, and precision -trade on the tick.
-- That's about as exact as I've gotten, today.

Small-bar pivots between patterns, trend midlines at patterns
-- may help increase precision

--------
Traded bigger, lost same way as usual.
----------------------

another approach:
Trade the 5-15'TF complex-logic news midlines pivot between two inter - spreadTLs' trends using the the major basing pattern's inner spreadTL there; logarithmically-tied news'll do this automatically.

another :
1645gmt+2 Alright, guess I'm headed toward patterns again. Seemed to run lines from enough types to make a collection.
At first you'd say, "What -- Two?"
That is, basing patterns and bar spread trendlines' anomaly patterns?
Well, there's logarithmic patterns, that is, the price jumping significantly and then selling off in an arcing downslope. I've used that enough times effectively, one posted (that 1'TF thread.)
one point -- pivot
two points, built on an abstraction -- midline
two points, built on an abstraction and attached to a trendline, oft breaking the area apart -- trend midline
two points, built on an abstraction and attached, or related in a complex logic way, to two points, each with qualitative reason, that is, news bars, oft breaking the area apart -- news midline
two points, both one-pip-spread bars, or rather two consecutive 1psb's -- pip line
a collection of very small psb's -- small-pip anomaly pattern
a major basing pattern, with the base lines it fits within -- basing pattern
two big psb's -- bar channel
a collection of big and small psb's logarithmically aligned -- logarithmic pattern

"Alright, that's well and good, only so what? You'd need an order to this; and what, you're going to go along for a while before every trade and add ALL of these? That's too messy!"

Order is reason.
Reason, here, is that each pattern has a certain type of line with it.
Order removes unnecessary lines -- Lines that work in unreasonable ways.


Xy-axis symmetry is always an anomaly. Yes, never say always. Alright, I guess I'll stop using the word 'anomaly'. It does get old, such as saying "Oh, this is an exception; no, this is; no,..." until you've identified most of the chart. Only, they're not balance patterns. Hmm...

Small-pip anomaly patterns are my favorite. They look like pieces of art, 1-4 pip spread bars, depending on the area's average, that align in a striking way. They are highly efficient, like small atom bombs,at times taking down a whole week of trading with lines made in a half hour. Other times, they may take an hour to make and work for a half hour. It depends on the type, I suppose; they're so cryptic upon their introduction, I just recognize them, often much too late, and put them on the chart. A dozen or two pip lines in a row or one or two pip lines through a bunch of side-by-side, small psb's can serve the purpose of a low-psb anomaly pattern; sessions's changeover often reveal this type. Even a basing pattern, conservative in that they're often labelled as one or the other traditional pattern and have ordinary trendlines attached to them, is an anomaly. Morphed, copied and other types of adjusted behavior of patterns (more-technical terms possibly workable from here) around basing patterns is par for the course.
Finally, logarithmic patterns compromise. They're traditional, in that they make logical sense to exist, and yet are anomalies, in that extending a line across space from two close-set lines and expecting price to align with it at some point in time is off the wall.
So where does leave news midlines? They are heavily involved in patterns, and make logical sense; thus, they are traditional. Their complex logic and news-source tendencies derive a special situation, which would reek of anomaly; in fact, the logic balances, with each midline-covered pattern's general trend and comparison with the other patterns, midlines drawn between different news bars to show their effect on balancing and jumping the price-time line between them.
Okay, I think I got it. The idea of my method, when it's finished, is that it depends on reasonable notions such as the crowd's reaction to news being de facto, different sessions offering a change in volatility, or a rare pattern having some sway over the ordinary chaos of the price-time line. Reason depends on logic. Midlines, which are by definition balanced and thus have zero value in their static nature toward a moving object such as the price-time line, can be used to think logically about the chart.
Midlined areas have various speeds of interaction with an area's average and of complexity of interaction One can draw midlines against the grain of the price-time line for a jumbled overlapping such as at the candle level, which can be temporary if noted only with interaction with a trendline through the area. One can also go with the price-time line and having one or two sets of several midlined areas in a row from which to draw logic, simple to complex, respectively. Jumbled, midlines barely hang onto where the price goes; streamlined, midlines define the biggest pivots.
The idea that midlines follow everything in its nature and thus can be aligned to create a logic of multiple areas with small, definable differences, is following the trend. You still have to go along one trend to display any one continuous build-up to a change in the price-time line, even if you take into account midlines that happened a good deal before this trend.
It's like, you're doing all this work to find one measly bar, the pivot. It's easy to forget this, because of the extreme proportion. Thus, the pivot is the pattern, the anomaly pattern; wait, no. Midlining is the inverse of finding a pattern and drawing lines from that pattern, because all of your work is with most of the trend, and all of your work otherwise is with the pattern. Actually, the method posted recently on the EUR/USD strings minor basing patterns along the area news-midlining logic also covers, if on a different TF.
So, anomaly patterns 'guess' at what it covers until studied in its microcosm, basing patterns initialize with the major and continue with minor ones, and news midlining logic studies the continuum to guess at what it ends and the next trend initializes. Basing patterns feel pedantic, news midlining logic aloof, and anomaly patterns weird. Pedantic, aloof and weird. Two are patterns, one groups patterns. Oh, wait. The first deals with replication right on to fill the trend, the second leverages replication for a pivot, and the third projects from an off spot to line the trend.
Okay, this must be it. They overlap. Pivot, pattern, a bunch of patterns. Build.

I'd like to connect basing patterns and news midlining logic through both of their use of midlines. Basing patterns use them locally, to follow the immediate area of the basing pattern and decide pivots. Only the emphasis of midlining patterns changes. Ah ha.
And anomaly patterns...

I was looking over the anomaly patterns I had recently drawn in or could now see, and found they all depended on basing patterns, mostly the major ones and some of the minor ones. So, they can be considered basic to the basing-patterns areas approach.
Then, perhaps those little trend midlines in basing-patterns areas .. well, so they expand into news midlining logic? Iffy.
How many parts to basing-pattern areas would I have -- the major basing pattern, all those minor basing patterns, the trend midl......Okay , I got it. You're doing midlines in the large news midlining logic covers in order to get to the next big pivot. That is the same as the basing pattern area approach's midlines do.
More. Midlines, alright. Biggest to smallest. All the trend's lines start with a basing pattern; I'd only do the minor basing patterns directly connected to the anomaly pattern there, if any.

Alright, so the basing pattern it is. High-flying midlines tell basing patterns where to go, anomaly patterns bring together major and minor basing patterns. Basing patterns are really anomaly patterns with some extra lines from the basing pattern itself, as in one pattern. Any line contributes; lines there for a while turn into ersatz horizontal lines, and time lines from midlines. Also, horizontal lines from news bars of alternate currency, balancing-type news.

Then, basing patterns with trendlines of all directions listed for each one. Got it. That's it.

to relist:
Between 0 and 90 degrees angle are, with anomaly patterns from the basing patterns, bar spread trendlines of various length to how much the price-time line uses them
and midlines within the basing patterns;
and, at 0 and 90 degrees angle, are midlines abstractly drawn to get time lines from the midlines,
and horizontal lines from balancing news items' bars and which could connect to those time lines and select the most likely basing pattern to put one's attention into (E).

Okay. I got the least and most significant of a basing pattern, where it counts, from specific uses of trendlines from all angles. That's maximum use of a pattern.
Anchor pattern may work.

I just needed some extra thought before bringing the method to my patterns thread. It's kind of like, whatever pattern you choose to study, make sure it can do all of this.

***** NEW METHOD *****

pattern lines

A major basing pattern has --

-- midlines within it,
along its trends, that anchor on the 1' TF the characteristics of the trend that apply to deciding its speed and direction;

-- anomaly patterns that tie major with minor basing patterns,
and the lines from them that set the condensed 1'TF trend's possible directions;

-- lines, usually horizontal, from its base,
that intersect later, where depending on the 1' and 5'TF trends;

major basing patterns group under and can be chosen with

-- midlines between news announcements
that time the condensed 5'TF trend through comparing single patterns per midline in one set and centered bunches of patterns per midline in another set, to get the trend's speed for its next pivot

any line can take on

-- deviation lines
made the same distance from a first line going steadily with the price-time line as another line or an area of the price-time line already parallel with the first line

mm

This unusual formula displays objectively a potential trade's reasons and feelings about it and is done for one's loss and profit plan, chosen below.

function:

Where variable(constant of the variable) gives a working map of one's trade,

variable --
(a choice) action/reaction (which position/rank favors) that goes to threat or confidence
(the other choice) control (which threat favors) that goes to homonculus (role or other human copy), or position/rank

constant of the variable --
( change, definition) * (cue, environs)

ingredients that just exist are environs, cue, definition, change,
those that just use other(s) are position/rank and control,
those that use and exist are, singly, action/reaction, and, one or the other, threat or confidence

plan:

loss

Sell a little at a time.
- Disobeys margin-call rule, that is, you can keep going and never really know when to stop.
+ Lose a little, gain a lot.

absolute stops
- Hit too often, too easily bro ker-abused.
+ Encourages active work around this absolute.

Sell when reason ('s area of effect) broke.
- Unclear reason (-ing ability) when wrong, so won't obey it.
+ Similar to "Sell early", only stated so more obviously adjustable.

Cut losses partially to drop chance of their getting away from you and let (the rest) return for an overall BE exit.
- Selling at small P/L offends ego after ego gets a taste of a reason that takes care of a much larger area, which conjoins and gets confused with the bigger in-trade drawdown that goes with such an area.
+ Creates sustain-type emotions that go with a dissociation from immediate reality.

Stop early.
- Distracting interruption from the swiftness of the action, may throw off entire session as much as a late exit would.
+ Invokes intuition, thus ego halted, although it's given potential energy to create an excuse with later.

profit

Limit at first reason.
- Small: "checked" ego or big: 'hesitant' ego
+ Big-reason error avoided.

Trail-limit to each small reason at a time as a temporary hold, staying in.
- > No-reason, thus blind of an overall reason
+ Saves spread over a lot of reentries

Limit preset , no-reason.
- Ignores self, circumstances
+ Easier to surround with reason.

Label any wholly-tradeable reason and treat same-side combos.
- "bottomless", too-trivial feeling that's difficult to target. Reasons mismatched, regardless of pattern that fits partial reasons together being wrong.
+ errors speedily adapted-to.

Intuitively match partial reasons, from views of indicators or other, that are to one's practiced mind old, slow and regular enough to fit into one profit-pattern that's the same with small variation every time.
- Shady controls.
+ Fast.


indicators

ToggleRegandHACandlesShiftv2

Volume Teacher v4
(for its average volume)

CDRW Spread
each bar's pip spread

ff's red-flag news
(ex. g/u: u,g;eur,cad,jpy)

frames, trendlines
drawing tools that highlight, specify




-----------------------------------

STORAGE OF OLD METHOD


" Welcome. I am a 1'TF demo trader who's an amateur fan of psychology. Most of the posts here are confused and narcissistic; posts 42, 44+ apply to the oft-rewritten plan below.


My money management practice that measures variance from or of exactly following the probability of profit into a signal-only loss or profit:


First lesson, "Cut your losses short."

Been NOT doing this since my first 'make-up' trade with KTEL in early 1997, so it should make a difference.

First, I made a list of different ways I've done "Cut your losses short" and "Let your profits run" in my experience.

-----

list key --

-- each listed item has a complex symbol, with several of the simple symbols below that are organized to the game 'Paper, (Path,) Scissors, Rock'

(waffled-edge circle) (a pathway between different ideas in a space, either with a square-like frame of boundaries ('think') or with a particular, dot-like objective ('know'), that is from fleeting effect to habitual signal; considered as a physical property, force) cutter, or scissors
(a square) (a frame of boundaries that perpetuates only a certain goal to <> / -+ effect; as in the American '60's slang term; area) paper -- the idea is, something that can cover a rock and scissors can cut
(a short series of dashes) (the third, optional dimension in a three-axes geometric chart, included to allow for volume, time (in a 2d chart, such as trading) and other; speed) path
(a dot) (a datum, to enter into a model or formula; mayhap, a pivot; pitch(or a (varying) vertical distance)) rock
(considering physical properties, the one underlying all being leverage)


warmup --

terms discussed below : position/rank (use); action/reaction (use, exist); ego, role and other entire-self representation (use); cue/object (exist); environs, schema (exist)


choices of acceptance:

-- If I'm putting my trades in only to see where it goes, holding onto my right trade idea worryingly, holding onto a wrong trade idea, and otherwise pushing into certainty where none will ever exist.
-- If I'm being properly nervous about each right trade, taking care of wrong trades promptly.
-- If I see the better of right trades, if I let go of wrong possibilities.
-- and others....
Check your recent past for borrowed, that is, nontrading-based choices of acceptance, if feeling dependent on others at the time. Note that using a special internal environs, with own personal role and thus responsibilites in relation to others, to screen response to proper data can work for or against trader. One's relation with real others at the time of trading factor heavily in role-making of such a special internal environs.

environs and its cues, reactions, and ego (vs. real-type):

The internal environs' duty is to base standards of performance on interpersonal relations.
Cues, or objects (which can be others' reactions, if the other is one in charge over or, derivatively, within, the environs) whose meaning in fitting the concept of an action one does in one's role, can even temporarily picked up semi-consciously. One may react to different environs at the same time in the same real-type environs, or environment; in this case, one must usually compromise, although, possibly more often if in charge, may also make apparently separate through simultaneous physical actions and reactions taken from different environs of one's own and/or shared with others, between the several overlain environs' interpretation of an object.
Reactions are often-emotion-inclusive "physical reactions" such as pulling away, shying to act upon, or eagerly doing, that, especially engage one's internal version of the real-type environs to screen one's actions. They are summarily called emotive conditions or temporary states, below.
Some of the more potent types of environs put together ego-in-charge and person-under-charge types, with their highly contrastive and symbiotic environs. Reactions in such role-heavy environs are induced or held-to by the ego in charge within the role-bound person under charge. Reactions serve to time, help to frame, and, if other environs' cues are ranked with the current action's, affect performance of, one's action. Reactions, from attention, work with ego, from flow: Ego, another's ego, a flowing compromise between naturally balancing objects / egos , or one's or another's predesigned directive, serves to select one's action.
An ego is in charge and creates an 'island' of standards that has all people within the environs one has charge of follow them. Each of those standards contains a set of actions to meet it that are between reactions that time the actions' performance and are designed to the standard that, supposedly, creates the most leverage from the environs for all roles included. This island overlays real-type environs, so one must subdivide it, perhaps called frames or micro-environs, with the ego's environs in a way that covers the delegated actions.
In these highly contrastive/symbiotic environs, reactions between higher and lower roles are designed to carry through the action of each next performed (or more than this, if the person in the role has an internal environs resistance to change); per real-type environs that the person in a role may pick own cues to actions from, ego would overlay a frame for action to hold this person under charge to standards of the ego environs, in order to perform such designed reactions.

special environs' role's influence on trades:

Once in environment, the case of which is usually ignored because it's been one's current one for a good while and thus is practiced unconsciously, emotive conditions of the body are paid attention to, such as aggression, arrogant carelessness, careful nervousness, and so on. One must notice if one had an episode of aggression that boiled over to now, and so on, because this temporary emotive body state may catch on as an emotive condition.
Below the environs and their roles' ability to screen and set reponse to cues, there is the emotive condition of the body. Then, there is the body part(s) used to and/or that is conditioned. Emotive conditions, internal environs role-set, will heighten nerves where usually, in a trade-only environs, one uses nerves to flow along a decision to trade, watch the trade, and exit the trade.

exercises to change between, adjust within, and move from a few oft-used environs:

To move from one environs to another, one must restate one's role to create new possible choices of acceptance from the given environs' cues.
Focus narrowed onto chart (proper data used): If I adapt myself to the chart's current moves, I may be able to accept the form of its offerings -- Candle spread, smallest current pattern, directional slants. Breathing, chart-copied (as in logarithmic motions, extreme stop motions, and other, which method is supposed to pick up on) actions unrelated to trading plan, and others, one can adjust ego, fear or other condition.
To let go of the nontrading environs (the special environs possibly more difficult to set up and thus, on the spur, let go of) for only a little while, think over the chart/news' data-based cues separately for a while, until you've let go of feeling or brought forth the feeling into an internal reasoning and resolve the feeling; then, test if nerves have left and your internal self allows you to pick up only on the trade's cues and thus realign your choice of acceptance to them.


p/l methods list --


L ....."Cut your losses short."

(a series of dots, with the wavy-edged circle around them all, this waffled circle exactly covering a (rectangular) frame) Sell a little at a time.
- Disobeys margin-call rule, that is, you can keep going and never really know when to stop.
+ Lose a little, gain a lot.

(a dot, with a waffled-edge circle around it) absolute stops
- Hit too often, too easily bro ker-abused.
+ Encourages active work around this absolute.

(a dot in a (square) frame) Sell when reason ('s area of effect) broke.
- Unclear reason (-ing ability) when wrong, so won't obey it.
+ Similar to "Sell early", only stated so more obviously adjustable.

(two dots, one in a frame and one not (thus, in effect, 'think' vs. 'know'); also, a line with an arrow on either side pointing to both dots, connoting an interchange between the two) Cut losses partially to drop chance of their getting away from you and let (the rest) return for an overall BE exit.
- Selling at small P/L offends ego after ego gets a taste of a reason that takes care of a much larger area, which conjoins and gets confused with the bigger in-trade drawdown that goes with such an area.
+ Creates sustain-type emotions that go with a dissociation from immediate reality.

(one dot and a short series of dashes, both within a waffled-edge circle) Stop early. (That is, "Nip it in the bud.")
- Distracting interruption from the swiftness of the action, may throw off entire session as much as a late exit would.
+ Invokes intuition, thus ego halted, although it's given potential energy to create an excuse with later.

overview of L: breakdown


P ......"Let your profits run."

(a dot in a (square) frame, to left of a short series of dashes, all enclosed in a waffled-edge circle) Limit at first reason.
- Small: "checked" ego or big: 'hesitant' ego
+ Big-reason error avoided.

(a dot in a frame, then a fading-into-unknown number in a series of overlapping frames-with-a-dot-inside) Trail-limit to each small reason at a time as a temporary hold, staying in.
- > No-reason, thus blind of an overall reason
+ Saves spread over a lot of reentries

(a dot) Limit preset , no-reason.
- Ignores self, circumstances
+ Easier to surround with reason.

(a (rectangular) frame with a few dots inside and several dots outside, all dots somewhat randomly strewn) Label any wholly-tradeable reason and treat same-side combos.
- "bottomless", too-trivial feeling that's difficult to target. Reasons mismatched, regardless of pattern that fits partial reasons together being wrong.
+ errors speedily adapted-to.

(a strong, sketchy (square) frame surrounding the wavy, solid-line path that may connect dots or other items) Intuitively match partial reasons, from views of indicators or other, that are to one's practiced mind old, slow and regular enough to fit into one profit-pattern that's the same with small variation every time.
- Shady controls.
+ Fast.

overview of P: build


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From chart study, my margin per trade :

. I read on ff that one can get a maximum of 13 consecutive losses at 50% probability of profit.
If 70% probability of profit, (.3077 / .5) * 13 = 8 possible consecutive losses.
(1 * 1.0905077275) done eight times = 1.9999999, or 100% loss, most bucket shops' limit ; 9.05077275% a trade .
In a fast market, 35 pips a tick is possible. Thus, (.0905077275 / 35)=0.02585935% a pip. .02585935%*35=9.05077275% .
What gives 0.02585935% a pip? ( .0001 / 1.65 ) * 105 * 400:1 = $2.545454545454 a pip, or 2.4242424242424% a pip, which is 93.747229696122456381318 times the percent needed. So, 400:1 / 93. ... = 4.26678275:1 . 2.7152253863636363 cents a pip. Wait, I missed a digit space. It's actually 42.7789275:1 , or 27 cents a pip, which is 9.07% per 35 pips profit, close enough to 9.05%.
To make any cash, one'd have to occasionally do either a near-100% probability of profit or a high-#-pips profit... Actually, 75% probability of profit is 25% probability of loss, and .25 / .5, not visa-versa, is correct, for .5*13=6.5 .

Put in terms of variables,
Input x: (50% / x%) * 13 = y possible consecutive losses.
Input z: (1 * z) done y times = 1.9999999;
(z*10)% a trade.
In a fast market, 35 pips a tick is possible. Thus, (z / 35)= (a*10)%=b% a pip. b%*35=(z*10)%.
What gives b% a pip? ( .0001 / 1.65 ) * 105 * 400:1 = $2.545454545454 a pip, or 2.4242424242424% a pip, which is (2.4242424242424% / b) = c times the percent needed. So, 400:1 / c = d. e cents a pip. Wait, I missed a digit space. It's actually (d*10):1 .


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My chart study:

chartreading philosophy
This is a user-made trading approach, highly discretionary with reasonably precise, logically-relevant signals. It is the only method I've found that's directly related to the chart's motions and underlying meaning; thus, the chart will often show new patterns or bar spread trendlines' sources that show an xy symmetry and/or train of logic one must catch onto on the spot.
To trade with the derived probability of profit from its signal, chart study gets a permanent template, with 15' (or other higher TF, using this one currently) -> 1' TF news highs and tense lows, and a daily template of trend-based bar spread trendlines and related patterns.

variables (example) --

patterns adjusted:
. complex vs. simple, times pattern vs. trend
. morph/copy : compare different, same
. morph/copy : xy symmetry of
. size, and derivative patterns
. horizontal lines to/fro a pattern, and base-lining forming s/r of a type
bar spread trendlines:
. trend-aligning
. deviation-like countertrend
. deviations parallel to one line
. chart-influence-interpretation of news in terms of area news probably covers
trend lengths:
. midline, straight
. midline, curved and other related
. on heiken ashi candles, trend midline extension at settle point of stop, start of trend
bars:
. whole 1 pip spread
. whole 2-3
. shadowed, low pip spread
. high pip spread
. volume
pattern definition:
. standard candlestick patterns


indicators:
ToggleRegandHACandlesShiftv2
Volume Teacher v4 (which is just a per-bar average of volume; colors, etc., ignored, since, as for price, only extremes paid attention to)
CDRW Spread
ff's red-flag news (ex. g/u: u,g,eur)
drawing tools: frames to highlight and trendlines to specify


plan:

newsbar patterns

I draw bar spread trendlines and midlines off a pair's ff red-flag newsbars and the xy-symmetric patterns between them. In this approach, bar spread trendlines with a lot of deviations or an excess of these trendlines tend to lose their sense of direction, and midlines bring in complex logic. "

It's not that I have to do every last, formal idea the method presents. Not every TF is necessary at any one point in time. If I can ad-lib every step, then more power to me. If I got a turn going from a recent study, that may be enough.
Most of the time, I'll need help. Sometimes, desperate help. Midlines break down anything with its logic, pattern summarizes anything with its lines, and deviation lines join in when the price-time line does. -- This is the attitude of the 'pattern lines' would-be trading system. Prefer doing the entire, appropriate method. Catch the gut intuition and the matching stimuli it reacts to -- that's the map's job. Pick your application given this -- choose your P&L approach. And that's all.




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Included in 15' midlining logic, anomalies; got anomaly spans, similar to bunches of pip lines only going in two directions, and the price-time line crossing between the span between the two directions, with an option, given a few lines in-within the span, of taking a break about midway in the span before taking off in one direction.

recategorization in terms of trend breakdown, toward a rewrite of approach:

Two-choice spans can be considered one of several ways to break up a trend, and, made of anomaly patterns or bunches of pip lines, have their own fork line; balance lines capture a huge jump in price or a deviation; stability lines are from basing patterns and usually are horizontal lines that structure a trend's area, whether or not it's the next one; and, deviation lines are made from some anomaly patterns, from which price turns and doesn't return, to stay with a current trend. Deviation lines copy a line that's currently going with the price-time line's flow.
Logarithmic curves underlie it all, with reasoned pivots, which midlines find logically between, breaking them up to discover their direction.

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Trades unsure, staying away for now.

Settled on midline-logic news verticals / basing pattern horizontals / anomaly trendlines to organize my bar spread trendlines; with a second, overweaning method, that of experience's comparison of these lines to the invisible tick's patterns and various proportions and angles on the same screen, the approach is steady enough to scalp or do an intraday hold on the 1'TF, which is about my limit.

Held onto an account since 8 pm EST last night. Made very little, only what my ability to interpret the chart until it made sense would pay me.


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1403EST A neat anomaly just happened. It's four 1psb's, one after another: Second one pip up, third one down, fourth one up. I'll see what to do with it; two 2psb's in a row at :36 and :37 look interesting.
1431EST Two more anomalies, a dot (1psb) then a regular candle then a dot horizontal to the first then a regular candle then a dot horizontal to the first, the third anomaly a triangle of 1psb's. I drew between the first and second and then between the second and third, rays between all the highs and lows involved. Already made one tiny trade off it. Didn't count the two 2psb's as an anomaly in the count, just merged it with the first anomaly. All are highlighted in grey, on chart; please ignore lines unconnected to the four described areas.
1434EST Another one: two 2psb's in a row then two more in a row one pip above them. A few minutes later, four 2psb's in a row at the same level as the first two 2psb's in a row.

(OPPORTUNITY #stacked reasons, each with a number of pips, per session or event, to profit/lose, each also proportioned to its immediate usefulness) / (RISK level of personal avoidance from given reasonable trading plan) = % chance a trade works

Also, read somewhere statistics applies to traders. Found this free online book on the subject.

to-do list

complex orders
Grouped reasons cover the area between and for stacked reasons, that is, lines

-- grouped reasons (between each line (set) with how long affects current price-time line):

1. "with (its invisible-tick speed/pattern) timing
2. and (resultant directions of) knowing when to trade or not,
3. (viewed and felt) proportions of current TA
4. and accumulated angles" (from a recent post of mine)
5. any personal, affected behavior mapped with the relevant, symbolized cues

-- stacked reasons (one layer a line or two and a TF-derived one/set):

1. the trend:multi-TF-selected 1'TF bar spread trendlines or temporary in-trend lines,
2. the grid: basing-pattern of wide 1'TF,
3. and up-to-condensed-5'TF logic of multiple sets of consecutive midlines between news and sometimes pattern areas for vertical lines at the pivots found

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method discussion, my obligations in

This predicted yesterday's big run; all it is, is yesterday's discussion of anomaly patterns and their bar spread trendlines. (I had skipped basing patterns and news logic.) Forget that there are lots of lines. Every one of these lines is important. Each can be understood. If my lines can do their bidding as they did yesterday, I don't see dropping their number from the shown. I must explain the effect of each pattern's lines, and then the same, as they are hit, with more-temporary or older lines. That's my only obligation to presenting the lines. The rest, is discussing how I got my intuitive call, already broken down theoretically earlier in this post, on price between lines. Afterward, I may have corrections to this call, if it is mistaken.

An anomaly pattern just posted: four 2psb's in a row (1823EST09092009g/u1'InstaTrader); also, there were three 2psb's in a row before this, and, a good bit before (1722), a 2psb then, two pips below it, another 2psb.

Still pondering how to organize lines.
Small lines for trading seem a relevant category, and midlines seem closer every time into connecting conceptually with bar spread trendlines. If I could attach the logic midlines offer with the accuracy of the bar spread trendlines directly, that'd be great.

Price rolled in the last half hour between the lines connecting the first and second and then the second and third anomaly patterns above. Made two trades. Account has lasted seven (7) hours.


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1258EST09102009 Expanded line repetoire. PATTERNS! Dang, they've returned with a vengeance. Halifax m/m did a funky N shape, and the price-time line after it followed suit! So there goes my so-called "basing" pattern being only horizontal lines; each basing pattern makes only one angle, or approximate angle, for all its parallel, or close-to-parallel, deviation lines. There's minor basing patterns for nonhorizontal-type basing patterns, also, of the same ilk/angle in that vicinity.
Next, anomaly patterns are the anchor of all patterns. Like, they're fantastic. A rule:Generally, link one anomaly pattern with the next one.
Also, draw the first pip line after a pair of linked anomaly patterns, connecting with the last of the ap's if it was a 1psb. This connects with the idea of balance lines. They're based on one-pip-bodied spinning tops, and, at least for now, are after, apparently to settle, very high pip spread bars, two of them to draw a line connecting the respective spinning tops' bodies.

So, I'm dropping the 'anomaly', too. It's line patterns.

Hey, I'm bored. Look at this cool-looking chart I just drew:

I'm working on some rules for my own trading (replacing

Attached File(s)

a trading game.pdf   33 KB | 350 downloads

):


1. Stop other activities. Watch for other agendas: Learning, a nontrader's idea of what trading is, the 'larger picture' at the expense of the immediate possibility of in-trade drawdown. Something such as a trading profit is positive and immediate, and at the same time an isolated (one person) and vulnerable (a computer, with its issues) activity; this will be the first one's negative side or others will go for, beyond personal issues. These draw one's attention away from trading.
Start this one. To get into the mood again: How trading as an activity and result affects one's position in life with close others, does the inverse as well; reflecting heavily on the positives of the latter allows trading as a role to be self-sustaining.
One good way, for a technical trader, is to take a break and challenge oneself in pure technicals, to read, say, a small, set, technically stable period every day, over several days or weeks. (I'm an intraday trader. I tried every day's 9:30 to 11 am, when the US stock market decides most of its day's move, and which is in a reasonably set range that intervenes between a few other price levels.) With returned joy of study, one clears one's mind of overconfidence and stubbornness easily, in support of trading.

2. hindrances. Pay very close attention to each inappropriate emotional or perceptual reactions you have during trading. Noting the change in the quality of your trading reasons, you adjust these reactions or suffer a spiralling effect from them and into loss. They will always be there to an extent, and they often are strongest in a profitable trade, threatening further trade possibilities.

3. balance. Perspective is an easy thing to forget. Check different TF's for same technical study, different studies', and news' (studies') layered info before making the decision to trade.

4. flow. Trade your plan and plan your trade. The market is never wrong, so you'll be a certain percent of the time; pick those few times when you have the most chance of being right, and you'll do fine. The faster and better you know you're wrong, the less money you lose then.

5. Stop trading. If you prepare a trade and it feels wrong (see rule #1), whether or not it is or will be profitable afterward, stop trading and take a break. Study the mistakes you made and see if you can recover your composure; if not, stop for the day. (See the last rule.) It may only be energy. The next day, demo your approach to see where you are; if you seem okay, move to pennies and check again; finally, trade your full account.

1. "the first one's negative side or others will go for, beyond personal issues " -- had to work thru this into objectivity for myself, before trading decently again.

So, a dcb (dead cat bounce, or, usually 23.6% in stock trading) every day is what I process my trades for.

Got some decent lines around news, and 00 held the price, so first day, got two dcb's. Probably'll lose one day, so a good buffer.

No regular hours, as proposed: Taking in only a few pips of a larger, well-structured area, due to the sureness of it; lower risk is higher likelihood of hanging onto what I make, which is job one.

1842EST Didn't lose an account, got near close. Learning got in my way. Figured how to read the price-time line's different areas consecutively and with hi,lo-spreadTL / baseline / midline from the longer-term side (horizontal, angled), top/bottom (vertical, angled) and pivotal (news). Reading the price-time line is key: Unless one can make sense of why the price moves from line to line and identify a reason for each line's connection to price, this method's worthless, because otherwise you just have a whole bunch of lines randomly drawn on the screen.

1942 Even after saying the above, still didn't lose the account.

Point is, my next step is to practice the "price-time line's different areas consecutively " with the lines that now correlate with them, until I do get bigger captures.

Wow! I got a voucher!! Thanks, PeterFM.

Now, to figure a workable trading method....

Really trading badly, method wrote in EURUSD Patterns thread hasn't taken off at all. It's the sensitive stuff, the pace changeover from one area to another and the soft exuberance levels or whatever lines are used, at the tick/few-bar that's gotten to me; it's easy enough to throw up some touching lines and a little trickier to give an area's originating patterns for a possible overview, as the post showed.

So, wrote this dumb little idea for mm, kinda desperate really:

rate confidence in trade with margin 400,

350,300,250,200,150,100,50,

and confidence in profit with limit,

24,25:10, 22,23:9, 19,20,21:8, 17,18:7, 15,16:6, 12,13,14:5,

10,11:4, 8,9:3, 5,6,7:2, 3,4:1, excluding spread. goal +.236 or

-.1 (multiplier .43272881) ; this ratio works to the noted. Thus, with a 3-pip spread, 3:1

is actually 0:-3 .12

I'll see if it works or I do it.

One thing: An area will have a natural range of pips it will move within, regardless of entry point. If one's confidence in the profit one's trade plans to make is less than that range, then the plan is invalid.

Perhaps flexibility to enter or leave a position without losing a substantial amount each time is more important. Often I'll trade on one reason and another reason I should've discovered ruins the first reason's chance to work.
I could do groups of reasons and choose: The "best of" a constellation of reasons, each with a specific entry and exit point for it, and then pick a few reasons that align for a feasible trade. This may work if I build, damper below 'good', or use another interactive pattern to condition how I decide how good each reason or group of reasons will be before I discover it.
I think what I'm really doing is reintroducing

Attached File(s)

a trading game.pdf   33 KB | 346 downloads

in a general context that allows any example of a trade plan to occur.

Wrote another psych approach, may be able to uncomplicate it enough to explain..

Why -- Lousy trading.

Reading a book, what I can on amazon.com, Killer Poker Online: Crushing the Internet Game (Vorhaus. Under 'Mind Management', it tells about the more grounded portions of psych, such as distractions, impulsive decisions; in 'Data M't ', discussed is keeping a book on other players' habits when playing a certain hand; and so on.

I don't play poker, it's just that players are known for their mm skills. I'd read a book before on the subject, only it was about offline poker, which includes body language - type tells, not "Data Management" - type.

After more reading and then sleep, I got it:

(adapted from here):

aggression
1. big-fear , "not ready for the big"
2. shy-away-from right, extra reason that adds to or goes vs.

patience
3. trade-flip types: one direction involved, call -> impulsively-do
4. two directions involved, call -> tired-to

distraction/sneakiness
5. less-of regret/shame , mistake-call courage ~ the blinds, my non-
6. concentration on non- ~ 'What's not there', at same time

confidence/carelessness/detail
7. ignore possible / allow "rush" high dd
8. optionally-with just go on with, in-loss hold

Then I simply put at least one number beside each loss and some profit trades I do, and can recall and learn from them.

Just did a 1. and 2.; not surprising, since was gbp MPC Meeting Minutes. Missed.

Made a tabular psych method:



Direction, in terms of self, may be divided into five variables: Confidence, control, change, definition, and threat. Inaccuracy of a trade may be divided into another five: too little or one less, too much or one extra, or the wrong one. Finally, a grid, with a regular-spread (basing) pattern taking the horizontal, a high-spread pattern (often, news) taking the vertical, and a low-spread (anomaly) pattern taking the 45-degree angle versus the other two forming a kind of grid.

From this, one gets yes or no for each of the personal direction variables, a list of applicable ones for each of the trade-inaccuracy variables, and a formatted description of the psychological weight from comparison with the chart's pattern.

The psychological weight, when one is honest with oneself, reveals the central, possibly subconsciously submerged, problem with one's current trade in a way that one can correct for this and watch for overlap of one problem with another.

There is usually a letter from the trade-inaccuracy variable list that differs in its use, such as being used more than the others and then not used at all in one. The letter is the personal direction variable one had the most trouble with in this trade. One puts this with the piece of the chart, whether /,_ ('pattern', in the regular sense), or | , the least-developed consciously. My method is these three plus close-up lines/patterns and some midline logic, so that choosing one of the three constitutes chooses the current overall direction.

Next in the final synopsis, one concludes that one's trade, not having a comfortable position for this shape - personal-direction-variable pairing amongst the possible inaccuracies of one's trade, creates a worry, or weight upon one's psyche during and perhaps for a while after this trade.

Knowing this weight and where one's weakness lies right away, gives one a fighting chance for the trade, depending on one's self-honesty and the timing-to-accuracy ratio of making the journal entry.

Of course, one appends the usual brok er stats after each journal entry, and lists all lines for each trade except the last one, which is the one going after the journal entry for that trade.

--

The variables are set to allow totalling each variable over several entries; right now, I'm thinking of applying a +1 value to y and -1 to n, then making columns compound variables in columns g to k, and, finally, dividing the last journal entry description into variables. A chart of one's strengths and weaknesses and other products may be devised from this, tracing, for example, early problems that lead to big losses.