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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,481
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:42pm Sep 7, 2009 10:42pm
Quoting Pharoah
has anyone wondered why, or anyone know why? I have a theory. And I meant Market wise
Vacation Most big bank traders are gone
  • #3,482
  • Edited 10:56pm Sep 7, 2009 10:42pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting nubchai
Dave are you using a % of the box for your SL? If so can you share what %s you're using and how you arrived at them? I used 80 pips this week which works out I guess to 70% of the box and was stopped out on the long. I'm thnking 50% may make more sense. If price retraces to 50% of the box then it seems likely it will go to the end of the box. I don't have stats to support that though.

Sandy
Sorry Nubchai

Right now I am strictly running on gut. I have Ron Thompsons EA which is really good for demo but my Dukascopy live account which is not small, is strictly me.

At some point I believe I will add something that will be coded.

My 25 pip or whatever Re-entry is NOT coded yet. Unfortunately coders here have not bought into my concept. I beleive it is EXTREMELY effective, as I have used it manually for several months extremely effectively , but it may not be advisable for a SETand FORGET EA.

For me, I need an EA that can do this but I do not beleive I can use it blindly and consistently over many months. It would need human interaction but I really need it when I go to sleep or when I am not near the computer during 24 to 48 periods where I believe the market warrants participation.

Where I hope to have this EA is to set my parameters each week based on my knowledge, news releases, other possible announces etc. You can't back test this.

Again, for clarity, I freguently re-enter trades at least at 25 pips below(above) my exit from SL, or at BE plus spread if possible, if I believe the market is volatile enough. I will keep re-entering as long as the original trend keeps running. Based on these re-entries, I can follow the trends for hundreds and hundreds of pips. This in not rocket science!!!!!!!!!!

That gives me huge profit potential, once I am in profit. My RR is off the charts.

Again, I don't have to be the best. I simply have to come out the other end very profitably. Others who beat me. All my respect but I don't need you. I am happy.

DR

dr.
  • #3,483
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:46pm Sep 7, 2009 10:46pm
Quoting yen44x
Definitely . . . all I do from late August until early September is lay around and drink beer . . . almost no activity at all.
And then do you repeat the process from early September to late August?
  • #3,484
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:49pm Sep 7, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting Bobcat2
And then do you repeat the process from early September to late August?
Geez . . . how'd you know, bobcat??? You read me like a book.

That's the key to this business . . . consistency.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,485
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:53pm Sep 7, 2009 10:53pm
Quoting Weasy2k
Vacation Most big bank traders are gone
That's what I've always heard too. What's your theory, Pharaoh?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,486
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:55pm Sep 7, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting Weasy2k
Vacation Most big bank traders are gone
I think some of it has to do with school starting back up. It's kinda universal when kids start going back to school, and student loans all over the place, that has to be some kind of impact on the immediate economy every year.
  • #3,487
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:03pm Sep 7, 2009 11:03pm
Quoting droland
Sorry Nubchai

Right now I am strictly running on gut. I have Ron Thompsons EA which is really good for demo but my Dukascopy live account which is not small, is strictly me.

At some point I believe I will add something that will be coded.

My 25 pip or whatever Re-entry is NOT coded yet. Unfortunately coders here have not bought into my concept. I beleive it is EXTREMELY effective, as I have used it manually for several months extremely effectively , but it may not be advisable for a SETand FORGET EA.

For me, I need an EA that can do this...
Dave,

Sorry ...when you wrote that you had a fast SL I thought you meant you were using a % of the box for the SL.

After looking at Danno's data I believe in a trending period a jumping stop of 100 pips (after BE +20 was reached) would gather in a lot of pips. But if stopped out I wouldn't hesitate to set another pending order in the same direction (25 or 30 pips) to jump on the train again.

Ironically ever since I settled on this variation we haven't had a strong trend so I can test the theory with live data.

Also I eyeballed previous weeks using a 200 ema and while it does weed out a few fake outs it also would keep us out of some good trades. So that's not a good filter.

Sandy
  • #3,488
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:07pm Sep 7, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting nubchai
Dave,

Sorry ...when you wrote that you had a fast SL I thought you meant you were using a % of the box for the SL.

After looking at Danno's data I believe in a trending period a jumping stop of 100 pips (after BE +20 was reached)...
200 ema is major lagging but still is very useful.

I have been watching the charts and when I have seen major movement, I have commited some huge lots. Not the standard approach, but when you get to know a currency, it does have its character.

Anyway, I will continue to improve. Hopefully.


dr
  • #3,489
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:07pm Sep 7, 2009 11:07pm
Quoting Pharoah
I think some of it has to do with school starting back up. It's kinda universal when kids start going back to school, and student loans all over the place, that has to be some kind of impact on the immediate economy every year.
All those back-to-school sales I went to over the years when I was in the U.S. If only I had known I was rubbing shoulders with the big bank traders.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,490
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:10pm Sep 7, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting yen44x
All those back-to-school sales I went to over the years when I was in the U.S. If only I had known I was rubbing shoulders with the big bank traders.
Well, I doubt you would have been rubbing shoulders, or rubbing the same street block. Big boy traders would only get TOP TOP TOP of the line supplies. Prada Backpack $1700 lol. But I'm mainly speaking about student loans for the most part, if homeowner news can make an impact on the market, I'm sure student loans do every year.
  • #3,491
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:12pm Sep 7, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting Pharoah
Well, I doubt you would have been rubbing shoulders, or rubbing the same street block.
That's true . . . when I'm near big bank traders, I try not to rub anything.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,492
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:12pm Sep 7, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting yen44x
That's true . . . when I'm near big bank traders, I try not to rub anything.
rofl.. you TRY? is this a keyword? j/k
  • #3,493
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:15pm Sep 7, 2009 11:15pm
Quoting Pharoah
rofl.. you TRY? is this a keyword? j/k
Yikes, between you and Bobcat, I have no secrets left.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,494
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:17pm Sep 7, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting yen44x
Yikes, between you and Bobcat, I have no secrets left.
Here, I have this book, it's called "Yen44x", here, it's already open
  • #3,495
  • Sep 7, 2009 11:20pm Sep 7, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting Pharoah
I think some of it has to do with school starting back up. It's kinda universal when kids start going back to school, and student loans all over the place, that has to be some kind of impact on the immediate economy every year.
Yep its pretty much the "new year" when it comes to trading...labor day holiday is new years

I know if i trade full time i wont be trading for the entire month of Aug myself. Its a horrid time to trade all my backtests had the worst results then.
  • #3,496
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:08am Sep 8, 2009 1:08am
Quoting Pharoah
has anyone wondered why, or anyone know why? I have a theory. And I meant Market wise
Yep - Big Dogs start taking their vacations in August. Almost always starts picking up in Sept when they all come back.
  • #3,497
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:16am Sep 8, 2009 1:16am
Quoting Flamenco143
Yep - Big Dogs start taking their vacations in August. Almost always starts picking up in Sept when they all come back.
You're absolutely right . . . I was on vacation in Cancun in August and couldn't believe my eyes . . . there I was, surrounded by the big dogs of the trading world.
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,498
  • Edited 1:25am Sep 8, 2009 1:17am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting EATrader
Thanks for the spreadsheet. However, the BE is not quite breakeven, it's a loss not gain. Please fix.

Thanks.
Yes Sorry, a mistake on Short colonne.

V2 is here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls W37 - ACE284-V02.xls   59 KB | 496 downloads
  • #3,499
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:36am Sep 8, 2009 6:36am
my sl on my short trade is almost triggered
  • #3,500
  • Sep 8, 2009 7:50am Sep 8, 2009 7:50am
I need to establish a stop loss or greater signal failed?
He could not even get in TP1
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